Giga Texas employee: Cybertruck deliveries should start Jan 2023 with crash/test vehicles produced later this year.

Macgyverfever

Well-known member
First Name
Regular Don-Won
Joined
Oct 21, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
321
Reaction score
642
Location
Tn
Vehicles
MYP BLUE/WHITE, M3RWD GRAY/BLACK
Occupation
Multifaceted IT Professional
Country flag
you don't know that.
Yup agreed. I can see the single being killed (just as they've killed all other low-range Tesla variants) over the tri, but they had 3 configurations before and can't see why a dual, tri, and quad can't exist.

Honestly, anyone willing to wait this long have (and still have) had so much time to save up, that those who could only afford single motor will be able to afford dual, dual for tri, and some original tri will stretch for quad (and if I may digress further, I am assuming model s/x plaid prices here - manufacturing will save money thus allowing them to build a hell of a truck for similar cost as plaid which would beat the price of, say the hummer EV thus keeping its premium spot in the race over the hummer ev which understandably is important to a premium auto maker).

Also predicting 600 mile range in quad.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
127
Messages
16,539
Reaction score
27,559
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
I just don't see a reason for the tri to exist once they have the quad, that's all. It'll have less hauling capability, not much more range (unless they sneak an induction motor in front), and if they do that it replaces the dual and then I see no reason for the dual-motor.

If they knock off the bottom model, they won't do it to add a new model at the top. It'll be because they don't have the production numbers to make enough vehicles to meet demand.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
I definitely don't believe that rumor from a "Tesla Employee" that just so happens to work at Giga Austin. I mean... we don't even know what the motor configuration options are going to be... they have to announce that first, plus allow customers to configure and finance their CT, then delivery is going to happen. Also, the CT videos we have seen being tested seem pretty raw and there is still quite a few things to figure out (e.g., Big Ass Wiper or lasers piercing those rain drops)
Wiper is not going to slow down launch. If they have to ship with BAW they will. Entirely possible the most recent, fairly big wiper is final. It certainly looked a lot more finished than the first rough BAW.
 

rudedawg78

Well-known member
First Name
Ernie
Joined
Jun 8, 2020
Threads
15
Messages
899
Reaction score
1,821
Location
South Carolina
Vehicles
2025 Cybertruck
Occupation
Retired USAF, Emergency Manager
Country flag
Wiper is not going to slow down launch. If they have to ship with BAW they will. Entirely possible the most recent, fairly big wiper is final. It certainly looked a lot more finished than the first rough BAW.
The wiper was just an example. My point was that there is a lot to do before delivery can happen. A Jan 2023 delivery is just not possible with the facts we have available to us at this time. Of course, I want to be wrong, but the realist in me says no way.
 


Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
If they knock off the bottom model, they won't do it to add a new model at the top. It'll be because they don't have the production numbers to make enough vehicles to meet demand.
Absolutely.

Seems very likely to me that many of these decisions are not made yet and won’t be until they start selling trucks. They will likely start with capacity for about 250,000 trucks (based on Musk’s comments and capacity of a pair of Gigapresses). They are going to sell trucks to saturate that capacity. If they need to add lower capacity trucks in to consume that capacity, they absolutely will.

Tesla is going to use every ounce of capacity and will adjust model mix to accomplish it.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
The wiper was just an example. My point was that there is a lot to do before delivery can happen. A Jan 2023 delivery is just not possible with the facts we have available to us at this time. Of course, I want to be wrong, but the realist in me says no way.
I don’t know that anyone is claiming deliveries in January. But I don’t know of any facts which would prevent a January start of production.

Not suggesting it’s likely. We need to see more pieces in place before I try and make a guess.
 

rudedawg78

Well-known member
First Name
Ernie
Joined
Jun 8, 2020
Threads
15
Messages
899
Reaction score
1,821
Location
South Carolina
Vehicles
2025 Cybertruck
Occupation
Retired USAF, Emergency Manager
Country flag
I don’t know that anyone is claiming deliveries in January. But I don’t know of any facts which would prevent a January start of production.

Not suggesting it’s likely. We need to see more pieces in place before I try and make a guess.
Agreed about having more pieces in place. My initial reply was to the very first post in this thread that claimed delivery in Jan 2023.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Agreed about having more pieces in place. My initial reply was to the very first post in this thread that claimed delivery in Jan 2023.
Well… GM started Hummer delivery in 2021… they delivered exactly 1 and have delivered zero to non-GM employees. By their metrics, Tesla could “Deliver” their first Cybertruck any time now. Rivian did something similar with a 2-3 month gap between their ”first delivery” and the first paying customer not employed by or invested in Rivian getting a truck.

More important is when you start producing vehicles at scale. The Austin Model Y seems to be cranking along right now… but has zero deliveries. Almost the opposite of GM/ Rivian’s approach. By the time the first Austin delivery ships, there will be hundreds heading out the door.

I would not be surprised to see a couple dozen Cybertrucks in the parking lots around Austin January of next year. (Also wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t appear until June)
 


Macgyverfever

Well-known member
First Name
Regular Don-Won
Joined
Oct 21, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
321
Reaction score
642
Location
Tn
Vehicles
MYP BLUE/WHITE, M3RWD GRAY/BLACK
Occupation
Multifaceted IT Professional
Country flag
I just don't see a reason for the tri to exist once they have the quad, that's all. It'll have less hauling capability, not much more range (unless they sneak an induction motor in front), and if they do that it replaces the dual and then I see no reason for the dual-motor.

If they knock off the bottom model, they won't do it to add a new model at the top. It'll be because they don't have the production numbers to make enough vehicles to meet demand.

-Crissa
Yea I hear you. Very-well could be true. I can't wait to find out!
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,902
Reaction score
5,158
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
Ye of little faith.

Only 5 months ago, Austin was skeletal, and now it is producing cars. Within a handful of months, they will be tracking 5000 model Y per week.

Elon said CT engineering is done… And it's now February 22.
He said batteries are not an issue in 2023.
He said Chips may be a problem, but should be ok.

I see a building finished by June.

Are we talking Tesla not able to do software or engineering on time ? And they have a year ? Serious ?

I'm shiiite technically... but I know a dollar when I see one.

400,000 Cybertrucks will make 8 BILLION profit. Ok, they may do less. Same.

Even if they have to throw money at the problem, nothing within their control will preclude Tesla making Billions on the bottom line as fast as they can.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Ye of little faith.
I have faith in the folder, 4680, and the holy Giga.

Until those are in place we’re in pure speculation territory. When those are in place then we’ll know they are ready to go. If those are ready, I suspect the truck will roll and any little details will be wiped away (pun intended) and trucks will roll.

Well… assuming the current chip supply BS clears up, WWIII doesn’t break out, and no other random global crisis emerges. Like Ivonova likes to say “No boom Today, Boom Tomorrow… there’s always Boom tomorrow.“
 

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
85
Messages
1,506
Reaction score
1,995
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
Yea I hear you. Very-well could be true. I can't wait to find out!
I have faith in Elon. He likes to make his commitments in terms of price and performance. There will be a RWD budget CT. It may be a couple years out past the first deliveries, and maybe deemphasized in the lineup. Heck even though Elon says the CT won't get LFP, the budget model might get them. There is a lot of space and load capacity to work with. Maybe they import the entire LFP pack.
 

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
85
Messages
1,506
Reaction score
1,995
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
Well… GM started Hummer delivery in 2021… they delivered exactly 1 and have delivered zero to non-GM employees. By their metrics, Tesla could “Deliver” their first Cybertruck any time now. Rivian did something similar with a 2-3 month gap between their ”first delivery” and the first paying customer not employed by or invested in Rivian getting a truck.

More important is when you start producing vehicles at scale. The Austin Model Y seems to be cranking along right now… but has zero deliveries. Almost the opposite of GM/ Rivian’s approach. By the time the first Austin delivery ships, there will be hundreds heading out the door.

I would not be surprised to see a couple dozen Cybertrucks in the parking lots around Austin January of next year. (Also wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t appear until June)
I assume GM had to go through the same multi level multi agency bureaucratic crap that Tesla is now finalizing for the Y for the single Hummer. Being union it might have been just a little easier somehow.

Giga Berlin is going to pay for their political delays, and make no excuses, the environmental reviews that they have gone through of late are somehow financed by VW to slow down Tesla. Now Europe gets the older tech, the second half of Giga Berlin might go elsewhere, and prices will be higher for Europe.

This all said the regulatory delays aren't really hurting Tesla in the long run. The production was deferred a little and the ramp will now be faster. But the unknowns and fear of a last minute regulatory hold must infuriate Elon.
Sponsored

 
 




Top