Giga Texas employee: Cybertruck deliveries should start Jan 2023 with crash/test vehicles produced later this year.

[Crissa]

We didn't know the configuration options this far out for the Y, either. And then the ones on Tesla's website turned out to be wrong.

-Crissa

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[Macgyverfever]

you don't know that.

Yup agreed. I can see the single being killed (just as they've killed all other low-range Tesla variants) over the tri, but they had 3 configurations before and can't see why a dual, tri, and quad can't exist.

Honestly, anyone willing to wait this long have (and still have) had so much time to save up, that those who could only afford single motor will be able to afford dual, dual for tri, and some original tri will stretch for quad (and if I may digress further, I am assuming model s/x plaid prices here - manufacturing will save money thus allowing them to build a hell of a truck for similar cost as plaid which would beat the price of, say the hummer EV thus keeping its premium spot in the race over the hummer ev which understandably is important to a premium auto maker).

Also predicting 600 mile range in quad.

 

[Crissa]

I just don't see a reason for the tri to exist once they have the quad, that's all. It'll have less hauling capability, not much more range (unless they sneak an induction motor in front), and if they do that it replaces the dual and then I see no reason for the dual-motor.

If they knock off the bottom model, they won't do it to add a new model at the top. It'll be because they don't have the production numbers to make enough vehicles to meet demand.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I definitely don't believe that rumor from a "Tesla Employee" that just so happens to work at Giga Austin. I mean... we don't even know what the motor configuration options are going to be... they have to announce that first, plus allow customers to configure and finance their CT, then delivery is going to happen. Also, the CT videos we have seen being tested seem pretty raw and there is still quite a few things to figure out (e.g., Big Ass Wiper or lasers piercing those rain drops)

Wiper is not going to slow down launch. If they have to ship with BAW they will. Entirely possible the most recent, fairly big wiper is final. It certainly looked a lot more finished than the first rough BAW.

 

[rudedawg78]

Wiper is not going to slow down launch. If they have to ship with BAW they will. Entirely possible the most recent, fairly big wiper is final. It certainly looked a lot more finished than the first rough BAW.

The wiper was just an example. My point was that there is a lot to do before delivery can happen. A Jan 2023 delivery is just not possible with the facts we have available to us at this time. Of course, I want to be wrong, but the realist in me says no way.

 

[Ogre]

If they knock off the bottom model, they won't do it to add a new model at the top. It'll be because they don't have the production numbers to make enough vehicles to meet demand.

Absolutely.

Seems very likely to me that many of these decisions are not made yet and won’t be until they start selling trucks. They will likely start with capacity for about 250,000 trucks (based on Musk’s comments and capacity of a pair of Gigapresses). They are going to sell trucks to saturate that capacity. If they need to add lower capacity trucks in to consume that capacity, they absolutely will.

Tesla is going to use every ounce of capacity and will adjust model mix to accomplish it.

 

[Crissa]

This is what the Model Y looked like a year before launch.

We're still in the first quarter. Lots of things can happen.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

The wiper was just an example. My point was that there is a lot to do before delivery can happen. A Jan 2023 delivery is just not possible with the facts we have available to us at this time. Of course, I want to be wrong, but the realist in me says no way.

I don’t know that anyone is claiming deliveries in January. But I don’t know of any facts which would prevent a January start of production.

Not suggesting it’s likely. We need to see more pieces in place before I try and make a guess.

 

[rudedawg78]

I don’t know that anyone is claiming deliveries in January. But I don’t know of any facts which would prevent a January start of production.

Not suggesting it’s likely. We need to see more pieces in place before I try and make a guess.

Agreed about having more pieces in place. My initial reply was to the very first post in this thread that claimed delivery in Jan 2023.

 

[Ogre]

Agreed about having more pieces in place. My initial reply was to the very first post in this thread that claimed delivery in Jan 2023.

Well… GM started Hummer delivery in 2021… they delivered exactly 1 and have delivered zero to non-GM employees. By their metrics, Tesla could “Deliver” their first Cybertruck any time now. Rivian did something similar with a 2-3 month gap between their ”first delivery” and the first paying customer not employed by or invested in Rivian getting a truck.

More important is when you start producing vehicles at scale. The Austin Model Y seems to be cranking along right now… but has zero deliveries. Almost the opposite of GM/ Rivian’s approach. By the time the first Austin delivery ships, there will be hundreds heading out the door.

I would not be surprised to see a couple dozen Cybertrucks in the parking lots around Austin January of next year. (Also wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t appear until June)

 

[Macgyverfever]

I just don't see a reason for the tri to exist once they have the quad, that's all. It'll have less hauling capability, not much more range (unless they sneak an induction motor in front), and if they do that it replaces the dual and then I see no reason for the dual-motor.

If they knock off the bottom model, they won't do it to add a new model at the top. It'll be because they don't have the production numbers to make enough vehicles to meet demand.

-Crissa

Yea I hear you. Very-well could be true. I can't wait to find out!

 

[charliemagpie]

Ye of little faith.

Only 5 months ago, Austin was skeletal, and now it is producing cars. Within a handful of months, they will be tracking 5000 model Y per week.

Elon said CT engineering is done… And it's now February 22.
He said batteries are not an issue in 2023.
He said Chips may be a problem, but should be ok.

I see a building finished by June.

Are we talking Tesla not able to do software or engineering on time ? And they have a year ? Serious ?

I'm shiiite technically... but I know a dollar when I see one.

400,000 Cybertrucks will make 8 BILLION profit. Ok, they may do less. Same.

Even if they have to throw money at the problem, nothing within their control will preclude Tesla making Billions on the bottom line as fast as they can.

 

[Ogre]

Ye of little faith.

I have faith in the folder, 4680, and the holy Giga.

Until those are in place we’re in pure speculation territory. When those are in place then we’ll know they are ready to go. If those are ready, I suspect the truck will roll and any little details will be wiped away (pun intended) and trucks will roll.

Well… assuming the current chip supply BS clears up, WWIII doesn’t break out, and no other random global crisis emerges. Like Ivonova likes to say “No boom Today, Boom Tomorrow… there’s always Boom tomorrow.“

 

[Tinker71]

Yea I hear you. Very-well could be true. I can't wait to find out!

I have faith in Elon. He likes to make his commitments in terms of price and performance. There will be a RWD budget CT. It may be a couple years out past the first deliveries, and maybe deemphasized in the lineup. Heck even though Elon says the CT won't get LFP, the budget model might get them. There is a lot of space and load capacity to work with. Maybe they import the entire LFP pack.

 

[Tinker71]

Well… GM started Hummer delivery in 2021… they delivered exactly 1 and have delivered zero to non-GM employees. By their metrics, Tesla could “Deliver” their first Cybertruck any time now. Rivian did something similar with a 2-3 month gap between their ”first delivery” and the first paying customer not employed by or invested in Rivian getting a truck.

More important is when you start producing vehicles at scale. The Austin Model Y seems to be cranking along right now… but has zero deliveries. Almost the opposite of GM/ Rivian’s approach. By the time the first Austin delivery ships, there will be hundreds heading out the door.

I would not be surprised to see a couple dozen Cybertrucks in the parking lots around Austin January of next year. (Also wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t appear until June)

I assume GM had to go through the same multi level multi agency bureaucratic crap that Tesla is now finalizing for the Y for the single Hummer. Being union it might have been just a little easier somehow.

Giga Berlin is going to pay for their political delays, and make no excuses, the environmental reviews that they have gone through of late are somehow financed by VW to slow down Tesla. Now Europe gets the older tech, the second half of Giga Berlin might go elsewhere, and prices will be higher for Europe.

This all said the regulatory delays aren't really hurting Tesla in the long run. The production was deferred a little and the ramp will now be faster. But the unknowns and fear of a last minute regulatory hold must infuriate Elon.

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