Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023

[JBee]

Yes, lucky.

His first company Zip2 did encoding. He was bought out, got a good deal.

For PayPal, he again did encoding. Network communications. But he was even higher up in the ranks, so of course when he was bought out, he got hundreds of millions.

SpaceX, he provided funding. It took him years to get up to speed, but up to speed he did. What do they do really well? Communications. Encoding.

Tesla, he provided funding. Again, it took years for him to get up to speed - and the company nearly died making the Model 3. He overreached, corrected, and was lucky to get the funding he needed at the right time. His skills here? Knowing that everything is interconnected, that EVs are constrained by batteries. What's special about Tesla? There were other EVs. Over the air updates. Communication again.

Now SpaceX is flourishing. What is going to be their next product? Network communications.

Neurolink he's financing. What does it do? Encoding. Communications.

And what does autonomy do? Well, he's not the one leading that one. He's hiring smart people and giving them the tools they need.

In this, his skills are no different than my spouse's. She's worked in telecomunications. She's built phone trees, online stores (in 1994 no less!), rebuilt cellular networks, designed testing equipment, and then did communications software and science data visualization, then went into networked virtual worlds and now visual feature tracking using arbitrary sensors. But her first company laid her off and went and formed a new core business around the technology she designed. She reformed another, and there a jealous productions manager sunk her project and nearly sunk the company. From there, she worked for a NASA contractor. She had code in space before Elon! But contractors don't get the contracts if the President doesn't find them sexy enough and she had to find new work. She didn't know the kinds of math when she left college that she does now because like Elon, she keeps studying. It's not unique. Any of us could do that.

But we're not millionaires. Because only one company she worked for got bought out. Only one succeeded enough in its market space - no matter how brilliant her work - and paid out. But it was only worth the cost of a Cybertruck.

If you look at all his companies, they're all special in one way, digital communications. What's his engineering specialty?

Luck, plus genius plus workaholic.. But mostly luck.

-Crissa

So in your world only what you learnt in college is what you are and can do? If it's all "luck" than why bother at all? And your spouse is comparable, but not special, just rare, but studying, because she doesn't know it all, but was just unlucky? Do words still have meaning in Cal? ?

No wonder EM doesn't require a degree to get employed in his companies.

BTW EM is lead engineer for SpaceX. He is the definition of a rocket scientist as well as it's CEO.

On code in space, does sending this forum message via EM's Starlink count?
Would be hilarious if not so sad.

Sponsored

 

[JBee]

He was lucky to have a wealthy family to get him started. He was smart enough to get it going successfully. This does not make him God. The opposite of FUD is taking root in this thread lately.

Crissa just pointing out a basic principle of life. Genius still doesn't know everything. Stop worshipping him like a golden calf.

I haven't seen any evidence of if he was from a wealthy family. I know he was broke when he came to Canada/USA and started from scratch as a student etc. Everyone knows the emerald mine stuff was fake, and there's literally one sentence from his dad that started the idea they were rich. Even if only 10% is true he'd still be going into the history books whilst most of us here will have some lonely forum posts that survive on a wayback machine that no-one will care about and be lost in the aether of entropy. ?

Nothing wrong with giving credit where credit is due, no worshiping here, but saying it is all luck of the draw is fundamentally fatalism, and is in no way to be considered rational and is a post hoc fallacy of the highest order.

As for "opposite FUD" I think the discussion was more around opposing views about EM, in particular if he is capable, and possibly special, and rare or one of a kind? He's a white male with money and power lalala...lalala. We know the story of how it can't be because of anything he did himself because everything is just luck anyway. Not.

That's maybe how things work in the metaverse, but not in this physical universe. ?

BTW Socrates quotes might apply here: "The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing. The unexamined life is not worth living."

 

[Crissa]

He was lucky to have a wealthy family to get him started.

And all that managed to get him was an average education and a work visa in the US.

He started out lucky, but not super-lucky, but it just snowballed. He got to live the dream every geek wanted.

But the thing is... No one else could. He basically won the lotto several times in a row. Once PayPal got big, no one else who was making a payment system did well. Once Tesla... Well, okay, a few companies did, but only after Tesla did well after almost two decades, none of its contemporaries from 2004 really survived.

The luck was just massive, and orbit-clearing.

So in your world only...

Everything you wrote was a misinterpretation of what I wrote. So no. I was just pointing out that he started from this branch, and all of his companies connect back to that branch. The fundamentals you need to learn from, you have to start somewhere. And if you don't, you'll never understand what you have to learn next.

My spouse didn't start out knowing how cellular networks or spacecraft or even calculus - the latter two I watched her learn, starting below what I had known to beyond what I managed to achieve. Elon's done the same.

One thing computer programmers have as an advantage is that they're taught early on that the job is actually studying more than it is knowing. Half the computer languages my spouse uses daily weren't even invented when she started out. Heck, one of the neat booklets she had early on was one titled, A proposal for a protocol called ethernet'.

The privilege to start your company instead of work for a company. The luck that all the pieces fell into place for the right buyouts. The luck that your company got the loans and contracts at the right time. The luck to do it all again.

I don't begrudge him his luck. He's living the dream. And it only shows just how much he takes it to heart that he bets his fortune not on safe things to bring in returns but on the future itself.




-Crissa

 

[JBee]

And all that managed to get him was an average education and a work visa in the US.

He started out lucky, but not super-lucky, but it just snowballed. He got to live the dream every geek wanted.

But the thing is... No one else could. He basically won the lotto several times in a row. Once PayPal got big, no one else who was making a payment system did well. Once Tesla... Well, okay, a few companies did, but only after Tesla did well after almost two decades, none of its contemporaries from 2004 really survived.

The luck was just massive, and orbit-clearing.


Everything you wrote was a misinterpretation of what I wrote. So no. I was just pointing out that he started from this branch, and all of his companies connect back to that branch. The fundamentals you need to learn from, you have to start somewhere. And if you don't, you'll never understand what you have to learn next.

My spouse didn't start out knowing how cellular networks or spacecraft or even calculus - the latter two I watched her learn, starting below what I had known to beyond what I managed to achieve. Elon's done the same.

One thing computer programmers have as an advantage is that they're taught early on that the job is actually studying more than it is knowing. Half the computer languages my spouse uses daily weren't even invented when she started out. Heck, one of the neat booklets she had early on was one titled, A proposal for a protocol called ethernet'.

The privilege to start your company instead of work for a company. The luck that all the pieces fell into place for the right buyouts. The luck that your company got the loans and contracts at the right time. The luck to do it all again.

I don't begrudge him his luck. He's living the dream. And it only shows just how much he takes it to heart that he bets his fortune not on safe things to bring in returns but on the future itself.


-Crissa

If you can ditch the "luck" and replace it with good judgement and hard work we could nearly agree. : -)

Because if you need "luck" to get a loan, a contract, an education, a mission, vision, principles, work ethic, capability, emotional intelligence to manage and work with people, instinct, rational logic, then you can never achieve more than your "luck" will allow.

Lets grab a dictionary quick before we try to redefine words that are already clear:

"luck; success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions."

In fact with EM the opposite is true, in that he learnt from his mistakes, where "his luck" failed him, as you would like to believe, and still persevered and thrived.

Another example: I could tell you my personal "story" I call "life", and of all those that have wronged me, how "lucky" I "feel", my "plight", as you would say. This is more a figure of speech, than the reality of the situation, because I personally believe and perceive a causal connection to things that I did and did not do, to get where I am, through the life decision's I made, and still make as good as I can.

Introducing "luck" makes light of his efforts, in that you think these things "happened to him" rather than "he made these things happen". This is fundamentally the opposite, and brings me back to one of my favorite sayings being that "we can either be the victim of change or the architects of change". This is a mindset issue, flight or fight.

You also said he is "living the dream", indicating that you would like to do what he does, but can't because you think yourself "unlucky"? The "privilege" to start a company instead of work at one, is a classic example of how the term "luck" distorts the truth and paralyses action. You can register a company for your new endeavor here for $360: https://secure.mycompanyworks.com/oms/order-b.php?entityId=2&stateId=51
Be your own boss. Start now. Make your mark.

I haven't seen a recent interview of EM where he doesn't look exhausted, stressed or concerned, fighting to perform, trying to consciously improve his understanding of other people and their perspectives, to the point he comments that he is not afraid of death, he thinks it will be a relief. Many times I've caught myself saying to the screen "dude slow down, before you burn yourself out!" But every day, so far at least, he's back with a vengeance. In fact lately he looks a bit worse for wear.

If I was someone else, I could say "if that is the dream then I'm glad I don't have his luck".

I would never say that though, because I know, that he is also capable of making his own life choices and living and acting by example, by consciously deciding and doing the things he does. And when he makes mistakes, like we all do, he owns them, learns from them and improves himself from it, most of the time. If you fall you get back up.

I'm not saying these things lightly, but taking responsibility over our own life, owning successes and failures, and not blaming it on your luck, or some other person, force or deity, also empowers you to make a positive meaningful change in your life, by accepting what you have done and consciously deciding to do what you can better next time.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

I play poker. The guys who play the odds and do the math can't understand when the odds don't play out and someone gets lucky. "It should have been mine!"
The guys who play with luck and gut feeling can't understand how someone playing by the numbers can win so many times in a row. "How are they so lucky?!".
You need a bit of both to succeed.
There's plenty of talented people history forgets for being in the wrong place at the wrong time,
and plenty of absolute cheese-heads who stumbled into fame and fortune.
It's not fair, but squaring yourself with that is all part of the human condition.

 

[Tinker71]

No, he's not unique. People like him are rare, but no, smarts are not transferable like that. He has his expertise - but not outside of it. He's usually willing to learn, which is good.

But in that... he's ni different than my spouse who built a web one-click shopping cart before Amazon was a company and built automated phone trees that routed calls based on the number you were calling from for another. Her companies have not always succeeded, much like Tesla almost failed because the CEO wasn't capable... that's far more common than lucky engineers.

No one is throwing him away. Just pointing out he's not unique except in his luck, and his expertise and attention has limits.

-Crissa

I am sure Elon is smart 1:10,000 or even 1:1,000,000 There would still be 1000s like him in the world based on raw intelligence. Elon got lucky that his family was successful with base resources to take some risk. Elon was lucky that GM abandoned EV1-2 in the 90's. Could you imagine where we/he would be if they hadn't?

Elon is unique in his drive and vision. He is a multifaceted business man now with tremendous resources. Once you get this kind of momentum it is hard to go wrong.

Social engineering and economics is not a hard science. Elon can't understand it. I don't understand him. He is about sustainability but without rules to guide us towards sustainability . One day he supports universal income, the next day he wants omnibots to do all hard difficult work. But he is anti socialism. There is a big gap there of people who are not creative or even particularly smart with little value anymore. He wants us to breed more so we are teaming with people and need more resources than the earth can supply. I guess if we are poor and disfranchised enough we will want to book a trip to an off world colony. There is a blade runner dystopian phase in there, I would just assume avoid.

 

[JBee]

I am sure Elon is smart 1:10,000 or even 1:1,000,000 There would still be 1000s like him in the world based on raw intelligence. Elon got lucky that his family was successful with base resources to take some risk. Elon was lucky that GM abandoned EV1-2 in the 90's. Could you imagine where we/he would be if they hadn't?

Elon is unique in his drive and vision. He is a multifaceted business man now with tremendous resources. Once you get this kind of momentum it is hard to go wrong.

Social engineering and economics is not a hard science. Elon can't understand it. I don't understand him. He is about sustainability but without rules to guide us towards sustainability . One day he supports universal income, the next day he wants omnibots to do all hard difficult work. But he is anti socialism. There is a big gap there of people who are not creative or even particularly smart with little value anymore. He wants us to breed more so we are teaming with people and need more resources than the earth can supply. I guess if we are poor and disfranchised enough we will want to book a trip to an off world colony. There is a blade runner dystopian phase in there, I would just assume avoid.

All of those points, from GM stopping EV1, to the imagery of a dystopian future are all part of programming from the powers that be, through systems that do not allow for change.

We are getting less population, not more. Nigeria being one of the few exceptions. Most nations are ageing fast and dining out because of the low fertility rate.

EV1 was killed by H2 and fossil fuels, and the ever looming exponential growth fallacy that requires more and more fiat. We are making things more than ever before whilst reducing emissions in developed nations.

If we have optimus we won't work so we will need universal income.

Mars is not a escape route because of his or our preferred actions, rather because something happens we don't have control of that requires it as a backup. Even then at one point the sun will expand, so why not by then colonise space?

 

[Tinker71]

All of those points, from GM stopping EV1, to the imagery of a dystopian future are all part of programming from the powers that be, through systems that do not allow for change.

Please elaborate.

We are getting less population, not more. Nigeria being one of the few exceptions. Most nations are ageing fast and dining out because of the low fertility rate.

We are not getting less populated, the rate of increase is decreasing but the population is still growing. Big difference. World population is expected to grow for some time.

EV1 was killed by H2 and fossil fuels, and the ever looming exponential growth fallacy that requires more and more fiat. We are making things more than ever before whilst reducing emissions in developed nations.

If GM EV program was allowed to continue there would have not been the impetus for Tesla or it would have stagnated in low volume performance market. No Tesla, probably no SpaceX. I call this luck.

I agree about the ever looming exponential growth fallacy statement. How do we get away from that? Do we need population growth for improved standards of living? It is crazy. Our entire economy and world order is a construct. A stable population of 4 billion or so is probably about right.

If we have optimus we won't work so we will need universal income.

Hence the need for socialism. Does the average IQ Joe get the same as an entrepreneur. No. now we are stuck with Communism.

Mars is not a escape route because of his or our preferred actions, rather because something happens we don't have control of that requires it as a backup. Even then at one point the sun will expand, so why not by then colonise space?

Short of a meteor impact or earth created catastrophe anything that effects earth will effect mars. I am all for having the ability to explore the galaxy. I think it is worth spending 5% of the world GDP just to make something for our most adventurous soles. Just because.

People won't permanently leave earth unless there is hope for somewhere better. So either we make it worse here or better somewhere else. I can't imagine a Mars colony that is better than the worst city on earth for a long time. Tunnels, domes, Vegas styled recreation. We can do that here. Mars is a joke, asteroids maybe, but people will go to get rich in order to come back to earth.

 

[Crissa]

We are not getting less populated, the rate of increase is decreasing but the population is still growing. Big difference. World population is expected to grow for some time.

As long as we're willing to subsidize parenthood and allow immigration, there's no looming population crash.

But there are countries suffering from population contraction. And in the US, we have many areas that have been suffering Bright Flight as my spouse calls it. There's no job for me where I grew up. It's a tiny town that lost its lumber mill, the harbor is silted up, and the fishing industry (due to climate change and industrial Fishing off shore) is in collapse.

Japan is facing a horrible worker crunch as they don't have enough people to take care of all their old people. Russia jas been actually shrinking which has led to reactionary and authoritarian policies to reclaim an era that never existed. Their oligarchs barely even live there!

Getting to a stable population is not easy.

If GM EV program was allowed to continue there would have not been the impetus for Tesla or it would have stagnated in low volume performance market. No Tesla, probably no SpaceX. I call this luck.

?

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

But there are countries suffering from population contraction. And in the US, we have many areas that have been suffering Bright Flight as my spouse calls it. There's no job for me where I grew up. It's a tiny town that lost its lumber mill, the harbor is silted up, and the fishing industry (due to climate change and industrial Fishing off shore) is in collapse.

Getting to a stable population is not easy.


?

-Crissa

There are places we should just raze and let go back to nature. Not every town should survive. We need a plan for organized population decline . If we don't we are back to population growth for the sake of growth and prosperity. I think the key is demolishing old buildings to keep prices up with a fund to close towns and help people move to new locations. We can easily take care of our old people with fewer young people. It is just the will to do it.

Maybe some towns do an organized contraction to a certain boundary.
What I do know about all this, is it needs to be voluntary. Create the fund/incentive and let the town decide or not, but if people want to wallow in decay. Let them.

 

[Crissa]

They still need doctors and medicine and forest rangers and tow truck drivers and whatever.

But we aren't big on supplying these things. Because that would be socialism or something. Nevermind we do actually already spend more on these places than cities; the big landowners there have power, and so they twist things to their benefit. Not for the little people who actually work out there.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

An AI Benevolent dictator would hopefully avoid eventual erosion and corruption of all good.

One should read Plato's 'The Republic'. We are still debating.

 

[intimidator]

Based on the NEW information that GigaTexas is NOT going 100% 4680s for the Model Ys they are producing, and in fact they will still build Model Ys at GigaTexas with non-structural battery packs and the 2170s, I think we can safely assume the CyberTruck is "delayed" a bit more.

Elon said they want to ramp the Model Y first, and hopefully in 2023 start production on the Cy berTruck.

If Tesla can't make enough 4680s to build the Model Y at Austin, it is going to be a while before starting the Cybertruck. They will need A LOT of 4680s for the CyberTrucks.

Maybe at the end of 2023 they can start the Cybertruck production? I see no way it happens before then.

Honestly, if you lease a new vehicle today, on a 3 year lease, when that lease is up you MIGHT get your CyberTruck, but not before.

 

[Ogre]

Based on the NEW information that GigaTexas is NOT going 100% 4680s for the Model Ys they are producing, and in fact they will still build Model Ys at GigaTexas with non-structural battery packs and the 2170s, I think we can safely assume the CyberTruck is "delayed" a bit more.

This is not entirely true.

Nor does it sync up with anything Musk has suggested about Cybertruck timing.

Honestly, if you lease a new vehicle today, on a 3 year lease, when that lease is up you MIGHT get your CyberTruck, but not before.

This is just silly. You lease a car for 3 years you are almost guaranteed to end up with time left on your lease or with no Cybertruck and still waiting. Leasing is a poor financial choice in general and in these times with huge resale values on used cars it’s even sillier. Trying to time a lease to end to coordinate with your truck delivery is pure folly.

Right now truck launch timing is still a crap shoot. Given managements current messaging and the state of things in Texas early 2023 is not out of the question.

 

[Crissa]

If Tesla can't make enough 4680s to build the Model Y at Austin, it is going to be a while before starting the Cybertruck. They will need A LOT of 4680s for the CyberTrucks.

This is not what they said.

They said:

• They are not cell constrained this year.
• They have thousands of surplus cells because of the Shanghai shutdown.
• They want to ramp Austin as quickly as possible and have surplus capacity and space there.

The 2170 design is tried and true and they have factories churning them out today, why let them go to waste? And no, dumping them on the open market won't get them the same profit (and production ramp) as sticking them into cars.

-Crissa

Sponsored