Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023

[Tinker71]

I met up with some friends over the weekend I hadn't spoken to since pre-covid.
Mentioned I had pre-ordered a Cybertruck in conversation.
Two started up on Elon Musk being an evil lunatic, the third was more sanguine.
The first two were convinced it would never come to market.
I felt like I was trying to explain the Model T to some farmers convinced horses would never be replaced.

This is a great example of information bias. Our little group seeks out every tidbit of information and analyses the crap out of it. For half of the population the CT is just some background noise.

My daughters boyfriend told me the other day that the CT was starting production next month. He is hard to talk to some times but usually pretty smart so I didn't bother to correct him. I wish he was right but wonder what news source he thought he heard this from.

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[Crissa]

Yeah, I have a friend who's convinced - or at least he teases me - that I'm never getting the truck because it's just too out there.

And he might be right. It probably will end up delayed again, it'll end up expensive. Who knows?

We'll find out.

And Elon makes a great villain in some people's worlds. But at a certain point, the people who are around him, praising him, are going to get more access. It's the yes-man problem, and that's how rich people end up with evil people around them. It's not intentional.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Poor Elon
So many enemies. Legacy Auto, Fossil fuel, Unions, Socialists

I couldn't even guess how much they have spent on the narrative. Imagine how many others they destroyed in the past. But not Elon.

And we wonder why he wants to buy Twitter, He won't stop there.

 

[Crissa]

Poor Elon
So many enemies. Legacy Auto, Fossil fuel, Unions, Socialists

I couldn't even guess how much they have spent on the narrative. Imagine how many others they destroyed in the past. But not Elon.

And we wonder why he wants to buy Twitter, He won't stop there.

He makes a good foil for Socialists. Even though he does agree with many of their positions, his narrowness of expertise leaves him open to being wrong on how greater economics work.

There's a saying, 'past performance is no indicator of future' - because it's hard to tell whether it was random luck (like a mutual fund) or actual skill. And this is something where for people the truth is often a mix.

The fact is, he let all his money ride on Tesla. He's basically made this bet four times in a row, and Tesla was his fourth bet that paid off big time (before even this third bet also paid off). And that's... really a story of luck.

But because it paid off, he's been given a huge platform, and immense wealth where he can just step into basically anyone's business and that's... that's what socialists decry.

He's able to influence Twitter not because his ideas are better, or because he's going to protect minorities, or because he ran a democratic campaign. He can do it because he has cash and popularity unrelated to the moral value of hard work and campaigning on good ideas.

I wish he wouldn't be so defensive and that toadies wouldn't surround him telling him supply-side lies, but those are comforting lies compared to the cold reality that the vast majority of us live in.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Narrowness of expertise ?

Luck ? Using his wealth ?

No

Expertise, Genius


The far left can be kept out of it.

 

[JBee]

He makes a good foil for Socialists. Even though he does agree with many of their positions, his narrowness of expertise leaves him open to being wrong on how greater economics work.

There's a saying, 'past performance is no indicator of future' - because it's hard to tell whether it was random luck (like a mutual fund) or actual skill. And this is something where for people the truth is often a mix.

The fact is, he let all his money ride on Tesla. He's basically made this bet four times in a row, and Tesla was his fourth bet that paid off big time (before even this third bet also paid off). And that's... really a story of luck.

But because it paid off, he's been given a huge platform, and immense wealth where he can just step into basically anyone's business and that's... that's what socialists decry.

He's able to influence Twitter not because his ideas are better, or because he's going to protect minorities, or because he ran a democratic campaign. He can do it because he has cash and popularity unrelated to the moral value of hard work and campaigning on good ideas.

I wish he wouldn't be so defensive and that toadies wouldn't surround him telling him supply-side lies, but those are comforting lies compared to the cold reality that the vast majority of us live in.

-Crissa

Here comes the alternate reality again.

What have you achieved to make that call? Do you know the difference between hard work and luck? Start your own company or at least get a job.

Go buy a Lightning and join their forum.

Do you see how bias works now? ?

 

[Crissa]

Narrowness of expertise ?

Luck ? Using his wealth ?

No

Expertise, Genius


The far left can be kept out of it.

See, that's the fallacy.

Even genius would fail if luck weren't involved. There are lots of startups that failed with just as genius coders and engineers behind them.

Thinking that because someone was an expert in one area means they'll be an expert in another - you don't ask your doctor to fix your car or your mechanic to fix you health, do you? Asking Elon to deal with law or speech or economics is not different - it's not his specialty.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

See, that's the fallacy.

Even genius would fail if luck weren't involved. There are lots of startups that failed with just as genius coders and engineers behind them.

Thinking that because someone was an expert in one area means they'll be an expert in another - you don't ask your doctor to fix your car or your mechanic to fix you health, do you? Asking Elon to deal with law or speech or economics is not different - it's not his specialty.

-Crissa

It's common knowledge he doesn't have a specialty, in fact he actively promotes that in his companies to reduce department interfaces. Look at the areas he's involved in?

I mean he's literally a car engineer that's reinventing brain surgery.

Physics is the basis if reality, and I am pretty sure, just a little, that the richest man in the world knows more about economics and politics than you do, or the sources you are regurgitating.

 

[charliemagpie]

No speciality, but the smartest person in any room.

He is not some like some high IQ person who doesn't know how to use it.


He is truly unique, and should be recognised, and not flipped because he doesn't agree with you.

Its like putting Galileo Galilei in a tower.

 

[Crissa]

No speciality, but the smartest person in any room.

He is not some like some high IQ person who doesn't know how to use it.


He is truly unique, and should be recognised, and not flipped because he doesn't agree with you.

Its like putting Galileo Galilei in a tower.

No, he's not unique. People like him are rare, but no, smarts are not transferable like that. He has his expertise - but not outside of it. He's usually willing to learn, which is good.

But in that... he's ni different than my spouse who built a web one-click shopping cart before Amazon was a company and built automated phone trees that routed calls based on the number you were calling from for another. Her companies have not always succeeded, much like Tesla almost failed because the CEO wasn't capable... that's far more common than lucky engineers.

No one is throwing him away. Just pointing out he's not unique except in his luck, and his expertise and attention has limits.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Gosh really? Takes one to know one I guess. ;-)

Luck won't get you anywhere if you try making cars by selling fish in a pharmacy.

"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has it's limits." AE

 

[charliemagpie]

No, he's not unique. People like him are rare, but no, smarts are not transferable like that. He has his expertise - but not outside of it. He's usually willing to learn, which is good.

But in that... he's ni different than my spouse who built a web one-click shopping cart before Amazon was a company and built automated phone trees that routed calls based on the number you were calling from for another. Her companies have not always succeeded, much like Tesla almost failed because the CEO wasn't capable... that's far more common than lucky engineers.

No one is throwing him away. Just pointing out he's not unique except in his luck, and his expertise and attention has limits.

-Crissa

Utter rubbish

As a kid, was he lucky a magazine bought his software

Paypal - Finance
Space X - Rocket science
Starlink - Communications
Tesla - Transportation
Tesla - Manufacturing
Neurolink - neurotechnology
Autonomy - AI
Optimus - Robotics

Yea Lucky..

 

[Crissa]

Utter rubbish

As a kid, was he lucky a magazine bought his software

Paypal - Finance
Space X - Rocket science
Starlink - Communications
Tesla - Transportation
Tesla - Manufacturing
Neurolink - neurotechnology
Autonomy - AI
Optimus - Robotics

Yea Lucky..

Yes, lucky.

His first company Zip2 did encoding. He was bought out, got a good deal.

For PayPal, he again did encoding. Network communications. But he was even higher up in the ranks, so of course when he was bought out, he got hundreds of millions.

SpaceX, he provided funding. It took him years to get up to speed, but up to speed he did. What do they do really well? Communications. Encoding.

Tesla, he provided funding. Again, it took years for him to get up to speed - and the company nearly died making the Model 3. He overreached, corrected, and was lucky to get the funding he needed at the right time. His skills here? Knowing that everything is interconnected, that EVs are constrained by batteries. What's special about Tesla? There were other EVs. Over the air updates. Communication again.

Now SpaceX is flourishing. What is going to be their next product? Network communications.

Neurolink he's financing. What does it do? Encoding. Communications.

And what does autonomy do? Well, he's not the one leading that one. He's hiring smart people and giving them the tools they need.

In this, his skills are no different than my spouse's. She's worked in telecomunications. She's built phone trees, online stores (in 1994 no less!), rebuilt cellular networks, designed testing equipment, and then did communications software and science data visualization, then went into networked virtual worlds and now visual feature tracking using arbitrary sensors. But her first company laid her off and went and formed a new core business around the technology she designed. She reformed another, and there a jealous productions manager sunk her project and nearly sunk the company. From there, she worked for a NASA contractor. She had code in space before Elon! But contractors don't get the contracts if the President doesn't find them sexy enough and she had to find new work. She didn't know the kinds of math when she left college that she does now because like Elon, she keeps studying. It's not unique. Any of us could do that.

But we're not millionaires. Because only one company she worked for got bought out. Only one succeeded enough in its market space - no matter how brilliant her work - and paid out. But it was only worth the cost of a Cybertruck.

If you look at all his companies, they're all special in one way, digital communications. What's his engineering specialty?

Luck, plus genius plus workaholic.. But mostly luck.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Love your work Crissa.

I might have some tablets here if you still can't find yours, lol

 

[Throwcomputer]

He was lucky to have a wealthy family to get him started. He was smart enough to get it going successfully. This does not make him God. The opposite of FUD is taking root in this thread lately.

Crissa just pointing out a basic principle of life. Genius still doesn't know everything. Stop worshipping him like a golden calf.

Either wait for your cybertruck or don't. I'll be waiting for mine despite not participating in the reverse FUD, cause I worship the silver polygon.

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