Cybertruck Production Ramp Estimates

[BillyGee]

I hope to Mormon space Jesus your calc is off, I reserved mine in the first hour and it puts me at 5.6 months out.

 

[AlabamaMike]

This is all good input. Thank you.
As far as delivery estimates go the net effect of more cancellations and a slower ramp rate will cancel each other out to a degree. I have heard of many that have ordered multiple variants and we do see that in the Tracker (blocks of reservations entered at once with the same region listed); and if the number that have done this is large then we could see mass defections on reservations. As of now we are assuming a combined cancellation rate of close to 50% on each variant. There are quite a few unknowns so we are interested in hitting the median between conservative a liberal estimates. Do we think that middle of the road should be a higher cancellation rate? Here are the latest assumptions being used in the tracker:
https://sites.google.com/view/cybertruck-reservation-results/production

 

[AlabamaMike]

I hope to Mormon space Jesus your calc is off, I reserved mine in the first hour and it puts me at 5.6 months out.

Good news is, if you are 5 months out, many of the inevitable production issues will be worked out and you should receive a better product than the first deliveries. Tesla received around 60k of reservations the first hour and many will cancel (we currently assume around 50% of those will). However, Tesla new product ramp up has traditionally been slow during the first 3 months of ramp.

 

[ldjessee]

I do think battery packs will be the limiting factor for vehicle production, with so many going to 3 and Y.

 

[BillyGee]

Good news is, if you are 5 months out, many of the inevitable production issues will be worked out and you should receive a better product than the first deliveries. Tesla received around 60k of reservations the first hour and many will cancel (we currently assume around 50% of those will). However, Tesla new product ramp up has traditionally been slow during the first 3 months of ramp.

I think it may be an error on the google sheet. when I calculated my approximate position in line by subtraction it put me around 9000 or so, which even with a slow ramp would be in the first two months or so.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Good news is, if you are 5 months out, many of the inevitable production issues will be worked out and you should receive a better product than the first deliveries. Tesla received around 60k of reservations the first hour and many will cancel (we currently assume around 50% of those will). However, Tesla new product ramp up has traditionally been slow during the first 3 months of ramp.

Correct, thats why although my estimated place in line is under 5000 i will probably hold off on my order for a bit. Of course i say this now.. i feel like i wont be able to hold back once i get my option to order

 

[Dixon1430]

My hope is that they have figured out dry-cell batteries and production. This could lead to the 1M mile battery and a path to get to 1 TWh of battery production which would be in perfect time for the production of the cybertruck, semi, and any other vehicle/storage they are producing. Who knows. I'm pretty excited to hear what Elon has to say in mid may though.

 

[BoomTrooper]

I don't think Elon will ever take over another facility like that again. I could be wrong but what I've read/heard of turning the Fremont factory into an EV production plant was nothing short of a nightmare. The only reason they went with the Fremont factory at that point was out of necessity, they lacked the capital to build a gigafactory and they got a smoking deal from GM. They are continually trying to optimize the plant to function the way they want it to. In the long run I think the building of a new gigafactory would actually be faster to get to production and to ramp up production to any significant numbers.

^^^THIS x 1000!! The way factories were and still are built by traditional automakers just doesn't really make sense. Honestly, looking at an overhead shot of any of these existing factories makes you wonder why anyone thought it was a good idea to lay them out with sections all over the place to begin with (I have thoughts on possibly why for another day). Tesla has figured out how to build the "machine that makes the machine" and since they are so vertically integrated, it makes zero sense for them to take on a factory that's a sectioned and modular mess.

Straight long lines with easy access to get materials to and from the actual assembly lines at one end with vehicles coming out the other is the way I can ever see them doing it and I bet we will for sure see other automakers trying to build similarly laid out factories for new EVs as well. Giga-Shanghai, Giga-Berlin, Giga-Cyber (in Texas possibly), will all possibly have the same consistent outer shape as described.

As wishful as it is for many of the cities hoping Tesla will come in and take over an abandoned factory and retrofit it, it just doesn't make sense in the big picture for overall production goals having to deal with a terribly laid out factory for decades on end when they can just build the exact factory they need quickly and with TONS of incentives to build in whatever location the state and local officials throw at them.

 

[ajdelange]

It would be nice if the spreadsheet were sorted by reservation number so someone could conveniently look his up. This would help detect date discrepancies too.

 

[AlabamaMike]

It would be nice if the spreadsheet were sorted by reservation number so someone could conveniently look his up. This would help detect date discrepancies too.

we had that but it was causing serious computational overhead, as a new sort had to be done each time a new reservation was added. We might add it back - however the easiest way is to use ctrl+f. we now have a website interface to the google sheet so it can be searched from within a browser or within google sheets

 

[Tinker71]

This is all good input. Thank you.
As far as delivery estimates go the net effect of more cancellations and a slower ramp rate will cancel each other out to a degree. I have heard of many that have ordered multiple variants and we do see that in the Tracker (blocks of reservations entered at once with the same region listed); and if the number that have done this is large then we could see mass defections on reservations. As of now we are assuming a combined cancellation rate of close to 50% on each variant. There are quite a few unknowns so we are interested in hitting the median between conservative a liberal estimates. Do we think that middle of the road should be a higher cancellation rate? Here are the latest assumptions being used in the tracker:
https://sites.google.com/view/cybertruck-reservation-results/production

Nice work. Personally I think the dual will make production first. I have been guessing 30% cancellations mostly offset by new reservations.