Giga Austin Production Capacity (Poll)

[Tinker71]

After looking at the Tasmanian article about Tesla adding tent space for production I looked at Tesla Fremont on Google Earth. What an absolute cluster! Yet; they have the capacity to produce over 400,000 units per year. To top that off they started as an ICE factory and they have 4 plus models plus R&D plus pilot lines.

Giga Texas appears well laid out. 3 tranches CT/Semi/XY with parts delivery in between. I think Tesla will be able to shatter Fremont's production if they wanted to.

To qualify, this is 24x7 production for just one week so it excludes some parts constraints and downtime for major maintenance and upgrades. (They probably won't run at that rate for extended periods due to various reasons)

What is your vote and why?

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[Tinker71]

Less than 7500 should be an option. Imagine asking the same question about Smi a while back.

Good point I will add a 6000 choice. I was trying to cover the bands.

 

[Tinker71]

I meant “Less than 7500” to cover zero

I can only add an option at this point. Hindsight I should have made an option for 1000 units or less. But I am hoping nobody is that pessimistic or if they are they just select 1000

 

[Crissa]

They need to get over 10k. Average over the year will probably be less than 5k, which would suck, but...

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

I can only add an option at this point. Hindsight I should have made an option for 1000 units or less. But I am hoping nobody is that pessimistic or if they are they just select 1000

I misread the whole thing. I may be on something today. I will delete all my comments.

 

[Tinker71]

They need to get over 10k. Average over the year will probably be less than 5k, which would suck, but...

-Crissa

The 5k weekly average for the 2022 is probably right. That would be 260,000 units so 2023 could be at least 8000 per week or 416,000 for 2023 (676,000 units cumulative) If Tesla designs maximum weekly output at 10000 units they could back off Sundays, cut back to 2 10 hour shifts and still have plenty of fluff for un planned downtime and still make the 8000 per week average. If the sustaining demand is more like 200,000 units per year they could cut back to a single shift in a couple years.

I don't think we have any idea how the lines will flow inside the dedicated building, how many, or if they will dedicate lines for various models, but my point of this thread is with a fit for purpose factory and the lessons learned from 4 major ramps Tesla could break all production records with the CT if the demand and margins are there.

 

[akcoyote]

Until we know if the global chip shortage will still affect Tesla in Q3 2022, and if there might be any other supply shortages (batteries?), it will be impossible to predict potential production numbers. Thus I consider the poll a waste of time at this time.

 

[Tinker71]

Until we know if the global chip shortage will still affect Tesla in Q3 2022, and if there might be any other supply shortages (batteries?), it will be impossible to predict potential production numbers. Thus I consider the poll a waste of time at this time.

Your reply took way more time than clicking a vote.

The chip shortage will not be an issue in 8 months let alone 15. The infrastructure is there. We just need mostly Asia to get vaccinated and staff the factories.

 

[Crissa]

The chip shortage will not be an issue in 8 months let alone 15. The infrastructure is there. We just need mostly Asia to get vaccinated and staff the factories.

Oh, it'll be with us for quite some time. There's no excess production built into the system.

-Crissa

 

[Dave Lyon]

I think Ford produces a truck every 1.5 minutes on a single line. If Tesla can match that, and the CT has one line, then I'd expect almost 6000 trucks a week working 6/24. This of course assumes there are not slow downs do to supply shortages, and they've worked all the kinks out of the production line. I'm guessing they won't see full speed production for another 12 months or so.

 

[John K]

If we go with a few assumptions
operate 6 day weeks, 24 hour days (21 productive hour days)
Conservative 2 minutes per unit off the line. (Any Delta causes huge production shifts)
Just under 200k units.

@ 100k, 4 minutes per unit. (Just under, using round number for simplicity)

Add in some updates on the fly, ramp up period, I’m optimistic in the ramp up.

supply chain unknowns will prevent me betting my house on the outcome, I would bet a dinner.

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