Mudduck

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Maybe this is more prevalent than we think :

I spoke to 2 people in the last week who are looking to buy a new ICE car. They have nearly NFI. And they have a university education !!!

Amazingly, the 'nearly' stands for an understanding that electric cars are coming, but it will be another 20 years, and there's too much trouble charging them.
Ohhh and they are in love with their respective future car.. A Subaru, and a KIA.

We need a new type of Darwin Award.
I hear you. I can relate but on the home construction level. 18 years ago I built my "forever" home and used ICF blocks for the exterior walls and used a brick veneer on the outside of that, light colored metal roof, spray foamed the walk in attic (where I keep a chocolate Easter bunny sitting on top of the HVAC unit) and pointed the house towards the North and carefully placed most of my windows under the cover of the porch overhangs and they are hurricane windows at that. Last year my bill for the electricity the HVAC system used was only $130 USD, FOR THE WHOLE YEAR. Often I see people in the planning phases of home construction and they waste more time picking out the perfect color paint for the garage closet than what it's going to cost to run the house forever. The old adage of "Pay me now or Keep paying later" applies to a lot of things in life. People are comfortable wearing their diaper even if its warm and wet but its their's.
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Marcia Litsinger

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I hear you. I can relate but on the home construction level. 18 years ago I built my "forever" home and used ICF blocks for the exterior walls and used a brick veneer on the outside of that, light colored metal roof, spray foamed the walk in attic (where I keep a chocolate Easter bunny sitting on top of the HVAC unit) and pointed the house towards the North and carefully placed most of my windows under the cover of the porch overhangs and they are hurricane windows at that. Last year my bill for the electricity the HVAC system used was only $130 USD, FOR THE WHOLE YEAR. Often I see people in the planning phases of home construction and they waste more time picking out the perfect color paint for the garage closet than what it's going to cost to run the house forever. The old adage of "Pay me now or Keep paying later" applies to a lot of things in life. People are comfortable wearing their diaper even if its warm and wet but its their's.
Seems to me that is the thinking of the population today. I am going to continue to think in the long run.We did as you and considered where would we be when we retired. No bills.
 

raikunten

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The bottom number takes into account for those who have a reservation but will not purchase. It is also a guess.
I also believe this tracker does not account for the fact that the days aren't part of the actual reservation numbers( first 4 numbers tell what day you ordered.
 

OldCyclist

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276,947 :-(

I knew I was out past 200K but thought I was less than $250K. I'll get mine sometime I suppose, but Tesla has produced, at best, 100K cars per quarter. It is a good thing to not be first, because of issues in manufacturing that will crop up, but that is pretty far out no matter how you look at it.
I just joined CTownersclub and am trying to find out my place in line. I have seen references to an excel spreadsheet. How do I view that? Thanks
 


Crissa

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I just joined CTownersclub and am trying to find out my place in line. I have seen references to an excel spreadsheet. How do I view that? Thanks
You see the button above that says, 'reservations'?

Click it.

You'll need a good connection and alot of memory on your computer to open it. It'll take awhile. Then enter your reservation number and city on the proper line. It'll calculate a position, though its guesses at dates is messed up.

-Crissa
 

Larry Hilgert

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I know my order is pretty far downstream, having placed it on 21 July, 2021. Lost my way and cannot find where I first entered my RN. Can someone embed a direct link to the spreadsheet in their post?
 

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Only 2,026,923 Tesla RN numbers ahead of me (based on subtracting the starting number 112744100 from my RN number)

Keeping hope alive!
 


mahalanobis

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Crissa

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Noob question: on my Win10 PC, when I load the link to search for my RN (113133655):

https://script.google.com/macros/s/...fH3auj6umhAZggZwnFRY5piFLHnWeffzAlLR3VkQ/exec

I get a message from Google Drive Sorry, unable to open the file at this time.

Can anyone tell me how to find my RN in the spreadsheet?
That link no longer works. Use the one I posted earlier. Enter your reservation number.

-Crissa
 

TyPope

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How would anyone know if Tesla is skipping numbers?
Funny you should say that. I ordered my CT and then ordered my wife's MY. Of course, hers came in two months to the day after we ordered it on 4/20... Her order number is just a little higher than mine. They are sequential numbers based on when the order was received for ALL Tesla models.

To summarize, all we can find out for sure from our reservation number knowing the first CT order number, is how many TOTAL Tesla vehicles were ordered since that first CT was ordered.

Now, for me, because I ordered in April, I can probably go in and figure out MS, M3, MY deliveries that happened before I ordered mine but after the first CT was ordered and subtract those numbers from my order number. Hmm... A mental exercise...

My order number minus the approximately 118,300 Teslas produced (and thusly ordered), means I'm up around the 481,200 range...

Now, IIRC, one in three people ordered the trimotor (let's just call this the top of the line) so
that puts me in the 160,410 range since I'm assuming Tesla will make their "better than Ford/GM/Ram" version first. Hey, this is my string of consciousness. Find your own!

Now, there are probably going to be some "I can't afford it now/I changed my mind" people. Let's call that 30% cancellation. Now, after subtracting those orders, I'm sitting in the 105,870 range.

Anyone who read their Tesla order agreement knows the below about resellers and I wonder how it'll affect the wait list...

No Resellers;
Tesla and its affiliates sell cars directly to end-consumers, and we may unilaterally cancel any order that we believe has been made with a view toward resale of the Vehicle or that has otherwise been made in bad faith. We may also cancel your pre-order and refund your Pre-Order Payment if we discontinue a product, feature or option a5er the time you place your pre-order or if we determine that you are acting in bad faith.



Assuming 10,000 CTs are produced this year and a rapid ramp to 5,000 a week, I'll get mine May 4th. (May the 4th be with you!) Though, It would be serendipitous to get it on June 20th, 3 years to the day since we bought our first Tesla!

*Some assumptions are conservative, some are forgiving, and some are just for fun.


Fun fact: My wife's Model Y has a VIN just above 11,250 and was delivered to us 3 months after the first delivery and just 6 months after production started. It seems logical that the CT won't take as long to ramp up once they deliver the first one. So, I'm going to call it... from start of production, we'll see 20,000 within 6 months. If we see the first one in June, there will be 20,000 before 2024... AND, they'll be at 5,000 a week by then as well.
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