JBee

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You are way out from my original point.

Folks are suggesting there will be a Plaid option and this Plaid option will be $20k-30k more than the quad motor truck. I don’t see how this huge price increase can be justified (or people will pay it) when the difference is small.

If we take the tri motor, at $69k, add inflation ($10k), add an extra motor ($5k) and we’re right around $85k.

The current (X/S) Plaid upgrade is $18k and you get 1 extra motor, fancy windings, and brakes. A Cybertruck Plaid upgrade wouldn’t be getting the extra motor so what could Tesla do to justify a Plaid Cybertruck which is $15k - $45k more expensive? Windings and brakes? As you suggest, that’s not really a $20k upgrade.
Thats why I said this in my comment to you, to confirm that it was so, instead we landed on the missing Plaid motor for some reason.... :)

The whole quad motor will cost $20-30k more, because of a extra motor is absolute nonsense.

So you can be satisfied in knowing that, at least from a physics and engineering standpoint, those price predictions have no base in reality. How Tesla tries to market the extra performance or functionality is a somewhat different matter,
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JBee

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Do we know for sure that GA is not making 4680s for MY?
 

Ogre

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Do we know for sure that GA is not making 4680s for MY?
I gotta pay some bills so I’ll leave the digging to y’all, but Tesla management said the line was not producing cells yet I think at the last earnings call.
 


johnbeans

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I think that at some point Elon will just tweet out what the first launch config will be in terms of motors and battery, probably in response to someone's question. I think that will happen prior to any launch event. I do think there will be one initial config, not a choice at launch.

Going out on a limb here, I'll guess that the battery ramp has been planned well enough—and in fact has been a heavy influence on launch timing—so that the launch config will be max config: four motors and largest battery. This implies that the large castings and exoskeleton fab and assembly will be the initial limiting factors.

I'm still muddling over how autopilot choice and geography will factor in. I'm tempted to say that FSDs will get priority (thus helping with ramp economics), and that late in the launch quarter Texas may be get priority.

And I'm not expecting a Plaid truck. Just 2 or 4 motor, big and small battery, EAP and FSD. Given that they don't offer LR RWD Model 3 and Y any more, I also wonder whether dual-motor, large battery will be sold any time soon.

Would be nice if they offered a matte black version as was indicated by Elon's "Sure" tweet, but having not heard anything about it since I'm not holding my breath on that.
 

Bill906

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When Elon spoke of the quad motor he gave us no information on what that meant. The loudest people who state their speculations/assumptions as fact seem to be winning. Their assumptions may prove to be true, but right now it's still just assumptions.

When I heard about the Quad motor, I liked the idea but only for the 4 wheel torque vectoring, and the removal of the differential. I did not assume faster or more powerful (as many people have). My guess (just a guess) is the quad motor will replace the tri motor, but have the same specs (or very close to original specs). 500+ miles of range, 0-60MPH in under 2.9 seconds etc. My guess is the total power available will be the same (or really close). If the tri motor CT was originally spec'ed for 1000HP, and had three 333.3HP motors, the quad will have four 250HP motors equaling (roughly) the same 1000HP in my example. This will cost more. But not 33.3% more than that tri. (four motor system is 33.3% more motor than a three motor system).
 

JBee

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Yep, now take that same thought one step further. A smaller output motor also means it can be made smaller with less material and mass, add Plaid secret sauce and its smaller again with same output, but better efficiency so less batteries too.

The QM becomes the only viable option short term to maximize customer satisfaction and Tesla profits at the same time, which is essentially what EM tweeted.
 

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Back to the timeline discussion.

I just spent a weekend in the woods. During the summer I wound up on pot-hole filled gravel roads getting my car pin-striped. I don’t like taking my Model Y up there so end up in the Subaru.

So the time line is not soon enough. I know others have more urgent need for the truck or just want to drive theirs before they die (No joke, we have a few members who are that age and we’ve already lost one active member).

My feeling is Tesla is cranking on this and it’ll be out as quickly as possible. So once the GP fires up and is free of issues, and the 4680 production starts sailing along, and whatever tech they use to cut and bend the stainless into a truck works as expected…. Whenever all of that comes together, we’ll get our trucks. Absolute earliest date seems to be around January at this point.

Not suggesting that’s when it happens… just saying **if the stars align** it might. Point being… we’re not on a fixed schedule. Truck will come when the factory is done. No sooner, no later. We’re 8 months late now and finally we see the 2 biggest components seem to be in play.
 
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TyPope

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I can think of two ways it could roll.
1. They fill the higher dollar Cyber Truck orders first.
2. They fill the lower cost trucks that use fewer batteries first.

Each method has some precedent we have already seen in Tesla production. There are a jillion other ways that come to my mind.
Elon said in December that they would make the quad Cybertruck first.
 


intimidator

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  • September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.
  • September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this. Possible.

  • December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month. That will make good drone footage, if they do stamp out some test castings.

  • March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment. Disagree.

  • July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries. Too Soon.

  • September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries. Too Soon.
My pessimism is because I think the 4680 battery ramp is going to delay when they can start.
They will have to delay the initial production and deliveries until they have an adequate supply of 4680s on hand, as well as a good flow of new ones being produced. That could be the end of 2023.

IMO Tesla is not changing course and launching the CyberTruck with 2170s....which is what they had to do with the Model Ys from GigaTexas. The plan originally was to have Model Ys' rolling out of Texas all with 4680s.
 

Ogre

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Sigh, back to the original thought.... Cybertruck timeline. Check this out from Joe Tegtmeyer:

GigaTexas making room for something big?
Yep. This image is kind of telling.

Tesla Cybertruck Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree? 1660594342292



In the replies to this someone suggests the most likely reason they moved these out is to make room for the 9kTon GP and Joe agrees.

Seems like a good bet to me. Though it’s a bit early for it to be coming on the slow boat from Italy.
 

No-mo-ice

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I expect a juicy fat nothing burger, that way I know I won’t be disappointed. If I don’t expect a timeline, then it will always come in time.

I just can’t get all frothing from the mouth like I was at first, to many freakish postings about predictions have put a damper on my expectations. With expectations comes resentments
 

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Yep. This image is kind of telling.

1660594342292.png



In the replies to this someone suggests the most likely reason they moved these out is to make room for the 9kTon GP and Joe agrees.

Seems like a good bet to me. Though it’s a bit early for it to be coming on the slow boat from Italy.
Not if they packaged and shipped parts as they disassembled. Only if they waited till everything was disassembled then shipped it all together.
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