Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[Ogre]

Not if they packaged and shipped parts as they disassembled. Only if they waited till everything was disassembled then shipped it all together.

It might make a ton of sense to air ship the parts which are needed to pour the foundation for this beast since it will require multiple weeks for the concrete to cure completely. By the time the bigger parts arrive, the concrete would be ready for the load.

Hmm.

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[Ogre]

I expect a juicy fat nothing burger, that way I know I won’t be disappointed. If I don’t expect a timeline, then it will always come in time.

I just can’t get all frothing from the mouth like I was at first, to many freakish postings about predictions have put a damper on my expectations. With expectations comes resentments

I hear you. That’s why I prefer to think of it more in terms of critical components as opposed to a timeline. It’s not “Middle 2023”, it’s “When all the pieces are in place”. Don’t listen to what they say, watch where the critical pieces are in the process.

 

[TyPope]

Yep. This image is kind of telling.

In the replies to this someone suggests the most likely reason they moved these out is to make room for the 9kTon GP and Joe agrees.

Seems like a good bet to me. Though it’s a bit early for it to be coming on the slow boat from Italy.

The original timeline for the 9k ton press was mid-August. Which, it is. Perhaps the whole thing won't be in yet but I'll bet parts of it are... even if they ended up flying it in.

 

[Bill906]

Yep. This image is kind of telling.

In the replies to this someone suggests the most likely reason they moved these out is to make room for the 9kTon GP and Joe agrees.

Seems like a good bet to me. Though it’s a bit early for it to be coming on the slow boat from Italy.

I agree the cause is probably "Make room for the Giga Press". But there are other plausable explainations. Like some other part of the model Y line is down and they are keeping the Model Y giga press (Mega press?) running causing the stock pile. In fact, doesn't this seem like an overly large buffer of castings if all is running normally?

 

[Alan]

I believe they are still producing less than a thousand cars a week. Gigacasting capacity of a couple thousand a day.

 

[Crissa]

I believe they are still producing less than a thousand cars a week. Gigacasting capacity of a couple thousand a day.

One gigacasting machine gives them a capacity of 684 a day, specifically.

-Crissa

 

[Dids]

Back to the timeline discussion.

I just spent a weekend in the woods. During the summer I wound up on pot-hole filled gravel roads getting my car pin-striped. I don’t like taking my Model Y up there so end up in the Subaru.

So the time line is not soon enough. I know others have more urgent need for the truck or just want to drive theirs before they die (No joke, we have a few members who are that age and we’ve already lost one active member).

My feeling is Tesla is cranking on this and it’ll be out as quickly as possible. So once the GP fires up and is free of issues, and the 4680 production starts sailing along, and whatever tech they use to cut and bend the stainless into a truck works as expected…. Whenever all of that comes together, we’ll get our trucks. Absolute earliest date seems to be around January at this point.

Not suggesting that’s when it happens… just saying **if the stars align** it might. Point being… we’re not on a fixed schedule. Truck will come when the factory is done. No sooner, no later. We’re 8 months late now and finally we see the 2 biggest components seem to be in play.

Was it AJ? Just in case...R.I.P. AJ. Hopefully in heaven u can see out the back with mirrors.

 

[Ogre]

I agree the cause is probably "Make room for the Giga Press". But there are other plausable explainations. Like some other part of the model Y line is down and they are keeping the Model Y giga press (Mega press?) running causing the stock pile. In fact, doesn't this seem like an overly large buffer of castings if all is running normally?

I would think if they were buffering it would have been a small pile, then get bigger and bigger over time. This is more than a few days backlog, this is at least a couple weeks output and it all appeared outside fairly quickly which what makes me think they moved it from somewhere else to make room.

 

[Crissa]

I would think if they were buffering it would have been a small pile, then get bigger and bigger over time. This is more than a few days backlog, this is at least a couple weeks output and it all appeared outside fairly quickly which what makes me think they moved it from somewhere else to make room.

Many of these were there during the Cyber Rodeo.

As I pointed out before, they covered all the unused areas inside the fence at Fremont when getting ready for the switch-over. All the grass behind the track was just covered in them.

I assume it's because as they're dialing in the machines, their reliability isn't steady, so they don't want the production line waiting on their fumbling. But when it's working, they push it to produce to get ahead.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Many of these were there during the Cyber Rodeo.

As I pointed out before, they covered all the unused areas inside the fence at Fremont when getting ready for the switch-over. All the grass behind the track was just covered in them.

I assume it's because as they're dialing in the machines, their reliability isn't steady, so they don't want the production line waiting on their fumbling. But when it's working, they push it to produce to get ahead.

-Crissa

Yep. They were all over at the Rodeo. These have just been shifted from somewhere out to here.

It’s unlikely this is some kind of drill to keep new recruits busy so I suspect them migrating outside is for a reason. Another possibility is they might ship them to Europe if there are big gas shortages, they might need to shut down the GP there.

 

[Crissa]

Yep. They were all over at the Rodeo. These have just been shifted from somewhere out to here.

It’s unlikely this is some kind of drill to keep new recruits busy so I suspect them migrating outside is for a reason. Another possibility is they might ship them to Europe if there are big gas shortages, they might need to shut down the GP there.

Oh, geez, that's a downside I hadn't considered. I wonder how they're coming along with their solar panels on GigaBerlin. They'd pushed those to 'later' but it seems like now would be the time.

-Crissa

 

[Rustysss]

I have been waiting But don’t think it’s going to happen, I maybe ordering something that’s available

 

[Crissa]

I have been waiting But don’t think it’s going to happen, I maybe ordering something that’s available

Nothing is 'available' tho. If you didn't already order a Lightning, you're not on the list. You'll have to pay scalper prices. Rivian has a long waiting list. Silverado isn't anywhere near ready yet, either. Will the Lordstown Endurance even be built?

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

If Tesla built for Rivian, the waiting list it would be 2 months.

Following that, it will take a phone call to have it that afternoon.

I am not being nasty... That is just normal.

Rivian is no different to any other new exiting models of the past. I’m not undermining it.

I don't think Rivian ever envisaged the utter Tesla dominance. It has never geared for it... I don't think it knows where to start.

Tesla is an exception.. Tesla is the new Ford Vs GM... except it's Tesla Vs nobody.
70% sales and 30% for everyone else, is the true indicator.

By the time Cybertruck catches up with its backlog, Another group in waiting will have formed. Maybe even bigger than the last.

Rivian is just a car company struggling to make do. !!!!

 

[Ogre]

Rivian is no different to any other new exiting models of the past. I’m not undermining it.

Right now, the question is whether Rivian can get profitable at all in the current market with their current management and factory.

Beating Tesla is a silly goal. Tesla’s goal was not “Beat GM“ it was initially to push the industry into making electric cars. For years they thought Tesla would get acquired or fail once big auto pivoted to EVs.

There is no altruistic goal for Rivian. They just need to focus on competence, then once they‘ve mastered that, excellence.

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