Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[TyPope]

Okay... 4680 cell production does NOT need the new building to be complete or built at all before the CT gets made. That building is specifically for the refinement of cathode material. They can make 4680 cells without it the same way they are making 2170s without it. They'll have to ship in the stuff already processed but they are doing that already for the MY line. Further, there WILL be constraints with 4680 production BUT since they are already making MYs with the older style battery, they can adjust the mix to ensure the CT gets enough 4680 cells to keep production moving since they will be working with small numbers at first. They'll need to pop a few out for testing and will probably spend a couple months verifying the computer models and maybe refining a thing or two.

Further, battery production really won't have a problem keeping up with production for the first few months because they'll have plenty of ramp-up time. It isn't like they have to have full production capacity on the 4680 line before they can begin making the CT.

With the Semi in limited production this year and a couple years before Panasonic (?) builds their factory and gets rolling, Tesla may have an interesting mix of 4680 and 2170 cells until they can phase out the smaller ones and focus solely on the more efficient to produce 4680s.

Another point, though it may be wandering away from the purpose of this thread... Tesla hasn't been testing the CT much. They can't test it much without the castings and surely don't want to have public problems with a Frankenstein Cybertruck because the media would eat that up. So, it makes sense for Tesla to slow-roll public testing.

There really aren't many constraints to making CTs at this point other than the 9k ton casting machine. The rest, even the brakes, are common enough that Tesla should either already have them or can get them easily enough.

Sponsored

 

[Dusty]

... but I had previously wondered if it was overly difficult or time-consuming or expensive, they would have made the front and back door with similar bends. Or at least felt savings over the long term would be worthwhile.

They didn't feel a need to compromise the shape at all. Which brings me to thinking that they may have developed an easier process.

I wondered the same. It would be wild if the doors used a kind of exoskeleton approach, leaving the doors hollow and comparatively lighter than regular doors. And also allowing for ample sound dampening and cubby hole goodness.

... Tesla hasn't been testing the CT much. They can't test it much without the castings and surely don't want to have public problems with a Frankenstein Cybertruck because the media would eat that up. So, it makes sense for Tesla to slow-roll public testing.

My Jimmies will remain unrustled until I start to see the gigapress install started, followed by casting calibration parts thrown in the bins, and finally "leaks" of the CT getting dirty in the wild doing stuff like this:




The Jimmies shall then begin rustling.

 

[Ogre]

Okay... 4680 cell production does NOT need the new building to be complete or built at all before the CT gets made. That building is specifically for the refinement of cathode material.

While this is certainly true—the 4680s they make out of Kato are made without Tesla‘s special cathodes—this does not mean Tesla will start Cybertruck production without it.

There really aren't many constraints to making CTs at this point other than the 9k ton casting machine. The rest, even the brakes, are common enough that Tesla should either already have them or can get them easily enough.

Fremont/ Kato production is limited to 30 gigawatt hours and it’s not fully ramped yet. That’s enough cells for about 150,000 Cybertrucks and zero Model Ys. While Kato might ramp fast enough for Cybertruck production alone, the Model Y line is further along and demanding more of their limited 4680 supply every day.

Tesla management has also said outright they won’t start Cybertruck production until Texas cell line is complete.

 

[JBee]

I think this image is more indicative of what will carry the load forces.

And to this, you add a handful of supplemental subframe pieces and you're done.

You're looking at maybe 10-12 individual parts. Compared to the F150L with several hundred that need to each be welded together for the same thing, but probably weaker...

The exoskeleton may not be the sole bearer of all structural forces on the CT. But, the system as a whole only needs 10-12 parts to exceed the capabilities of several hundred parts welded together. With each weld point being a failure point.

Then when we take a look at the cabin, it's only a few sheets of folded stainless, some subframe pieces, and we have the interior frame and 80% of the exterior body done.

While the OEMs need to once again weld several hundred formed pieces together just to make the sub frame with 0 exterior panels in place.

The exoskeleton does plenty when you don't need to weld hundreds and hundreds of formed parts together before you even have the skin on the truck. In addition, it ties together the castings and battery pack from front to rear doing the work of the ladder frame of the F150.

The picture of the MY front and rear casting and structural pack actually proves my point that the exoskeleton skin is more a marketing ploy rather than of physical significance. If you throw a MY cabin on that assembly you'd have a completely load bearing and roadworthy vehicle.

All the doors and front and rear fenders on a MY don't add anything to the load bearing capability of the MY, and maybe only improve some crashworthyness on frontal impact aside from aesthetics and aerodynamics.

BTW you writing "100's less pieces" doesn't mean its better, lighter or even true. Sounds all fantastical, and like good marketing, but you can be assured that all the load of any vehicle, has to be carried by the wheels, then the hub, the wheel knuckle, the suspension arms and air springs, all of which will go into the front or rear casting before even touching anything else in the vehicle, just like a GA MY.

Besides the comparison, even in part numbers "saved", is not even between a CT and a F150, rather a MY and a CT, because the only difference between them is this supposed "exoskeleton" jargon, that has yet to manifest itself into any significance.

It's the combination of all the subassembly that make it work, but I'd be surprised if the "exoskeleton" even contributes 10% of the structural rigidity of the CT. (For clarity I don't consider cabin structure as part of the exoskeleton as every car has that)

Also FYI I have not yet seen confirmation that the cabin structure will be Stainless. It would be nice if they could make it so, but typically its a mash of different metals to get the different properties they need for the structure. Its fairly likely they will need to do the same for the CT. The castings are aluminium, the pack also a combination, so its not like they are making it out of one material anyway.

As for the doors, the 3mm SS would be rigid enough in itself with just to vertical ribs on either side, for hinges and lock. It's likely they will be hollow, except for maybe additional side impact protection.

 

[TyPope]

While this is certainly true—the 4680s they make out of Kato are made without Tesla‘s special cathodes—this does not mean Tesla will start Cybertruck production without it.



Fremont/ Kato production is limited to 30 gigawatt hours and it’s not fully ramped yet. That’s enough cells for about 150,000 Cybertrucks and zero Model Ys. While Kato might ramp fast enough for Cybertruck production alone, the Model Y line is further along and demanding more of their limited 4680 supply every day.

Tesla management has also said outright they won’t start Cybertruck production until Texas cell line is complete.

So, for the rest of this year, say, 200 Cybertrucks? They can easily meet that requirement. That is all I'm saying. CT initial production is not reliant on the cathode plant.

I hadn't heard that Tesla management said they wouldn't start Cybertruck production until the cell line is complete. The cell line may be complete already though... It's in the main factory. That line will have to get the cathode from elsewhere until the cathode building and line are up and running.

 

[Ogre]

So, for the rest of this year, say, 200 Cybertrucks? They can easily meet that requirement. That is all I'm saying. CT initial production is not reliant on the cathode plant.

Ah, gotcha. I don’t really call 200 units “Production”, I’d call it testing or proving the assembly line. (Not trying to nit-pick or suggest you are wrong, just pointing out the difference in perspective).

Yeah, they could certainly pull cells from the Kato line for that.

Another way of looking at it. They won’t start customer deliveries until Texas 4680 ramp is under way. (I think we’re on the same page)

 

[Dusty]

It's the combination of all the subassembly that make it work, but I'd be surprised if the "exoskeleton" even contributes 10% of the structural rigidity of the CT. (For clarity I don't consider cabin structure as part of the exoskeleton as every car has that)

I'm not going to argue the minutia regarding the upper structure of the CT not being a pure "exoskeleton". It derives its strength through a combination of the outer skin and significantly fewer subframe members. None of us have the engineering numbers, nor are any of us as good as the handpicked engineers at Tesla.

You're arguing the "exoskeleton" as if its structural strength is its reason for being. It provides what is need. The "exoskeleton" goes beyond that though.

How the CT body provides structure AND what it needs for assembly is the special sauce. Unlike virtually every heavy duty pick-up the CT doesn't need a ladder frame. That's HUGE. Also according to Musk that equals a massive drop in assembly line space requirements and a matching reduction in robots and time needed for construction. Look at the Rivian, Hummer, and Ford weights. They are heavier than some larger ICE trucks. They also have painfully slow assembly times.

Is your point that you think the CT could have a "traditional" body because the "exoskeleton" design isn't "all that?". If so, I think you're wrong. Because I look at this...

...And disagree.

The "exoskeleton" does more than what you see above with exponentially fewer parts, exponentially fewer welds, and exponentially less machinery, requires less factory floor space, fewer inspection requirements, has a significantly lower vehicle weight, and reduced assembly time. That's not even debatable, and has been cited by Musk several times to shareholders. In the end, the pound for pound performance of the CT will be shocking. That's the what the "exoskeleton" brings to the table, THAT'S the advantage. And, that's not marketing.

The CT is designed to deliver monster capability at staggering production numbers for a reasonable price. The part we're worried about is the reasonable price.

 

[Ogre]

View attachment 13613

Seems to me this is the key to the whole “Exoskeleton” debate.

A traditional truck has a ladder frame which supports the load. It has a body which supports the cabin, the skin of the truck, internal panels, and protects the occupants. The body has internal structure.

The Cybertruck has a front assembly, a structural pack, and a rear assembly which supports the load. The exoskeleton is the skin of the truck and it protects the occupants, supports the internal panels, and everything the body of the truck does. What you eliminate is primarily what you see above. That is gone.

I think the body is also a truss of sorts supporting the underbody adding strength to the whole for things like towing large loads. The skateboard portion of the truck is doing the lions share, but the stainless skin prevents flexing and stabilizes it.

I strongly suspect if you just took the skateboard and put 3500 pounds on top of it that it would not perform as well. That triangle acts like a suspension bridge for the structural pack.

 

[CyberGus]

This may be a stupid question I suppose. But here she goes.

We know what will be making the truck body (9K IDRA machine), and there have been lots of questions about what machine will make he unibody and bend the stainless into the structural body shell. What was used to create the coupe prototypes they have now? Is the general consensus that the current prototypes are NOT unibody stainless? Perhaps just panels to get dimensions and whatnot worked out? We know that the body is not a casting, and was welded from many pieces the old school way (and likely by hand?).

SpaceX has been working with cold-rolled stainless for a good few years now. What are the chances a machine created for SpaceX needs is planned for use/order to create/fold the unibody? That appears to be one of the last ?'s we have around machines needed to start production. I do feel that mid 2023 is still a pretty generous timeline for production start... I would not be surprised if its not late 2023. I am worried about 4680. So little info, very little production, and a huge cloud of mystery into the whats, whys, and hows around the limitations and ramp plans. 4680 has and will be the limiting factor in producing all of Tesla's products and it is showing no signs at all of picking up production at a pace to meet any of these demands from any single 1 product line.

Prototypes are hand-built. It's possible to make an exoskeleton with only bench/hand tools, but it would be very slow. Making 100 per hour requires automation.

Similarly, I don't need a 100-megaton casting machine to create a part from a giant block of aluminum. A CNC can machine a "casting" equivalent, just more slowly and at great cost.

Prototypes are easy. Production is hard.

 

[CyberGus]

View attachment 13613

Seems to me this is the key to the whole “Exoskeleton” debate.

A traditional truck has a ladder frame which supports the load. It has a body which supports the cabin, the skin of the truck, internal panels, and protects the occupants. The body has internal structure.

The Cybertruck has a front assembly, a structural pack, and a rear assembly which supports the load. The exoskeleton is the skin of the truck and it protects the occupants, supports the internal panels, and everything the body of the truck does. What you eliminate is primarily what you see above. That is gone.

I think the body is also a truss of sorts supporting the underbody Adding strength to the whole for things like towing large loads. The skateboard portion of the truck is doing the lions share, but the stainless skin prevents flexing and stabilizes it.

I strongly suspect if you just took the skateboard and put 3500 pounds on top of it that it would perform as well. That triangle acts like a suspension bridge for the structural pack.

Modern body-on-frame designs have exterior panels for aerodynamics and appearance, but they provide zero structural rigidity. The Cybertruck exoskeleton provides the rigidity AND includes the exterior shape, so the dead-weight of the exterior panels becomes unnecessary.

 

[TyPope]

Ah, gotcha. I don’t really call 200 units “Production”, I’d call it testing or proving the assembly line. (Not trying to nit-pick or suggest you are wrong, just pointing out the difference in perspective).

Yeah, they could certainly pull cells from the Kato line for that.

Another way of looking at it. They won’t start customer deliveries until Texas 4680 ramp is under way. (I think we’re on the same page)

Agreed. I was an industrial engineer at GM in Shreveport back when that plant was open and making trucks so a lot of my estimating is dated. However, I DID stay at a Holiday Inn Express... Well, I've watched all of Joe and Jeff's drone footage videos since the beginning so I have a good feel for the flow of events on site. By the time the CT is being built at more than 100 a week, the new facility will be completed externally and internal components will be mostly installed. I suspect the new facility to be producing some cathode material in the next 6 months.

 

[TyPope]

Prototypes are hand-built. It's possible to make an exoskeleton with only bench/hand tools, but it would be very slow. Making 100 per hour requires automation.

Similarly, I don't need a 100-megaton casting machine to create a part from a giant block of aluminum. A CNC can machine a "casting" equivalent, just more slowly and at great cost.

Prototypes are easy. Production is hard.

I didn't think about machining the front and rear from blocks of aluminum for a "real" prototype. Good catch.

 

[Bill906]

It's also possible that the "exoskeleton body" could be rolled into shape gradually though a series of rollers,

While it is true they could make some of the bends using gradual rollers, I would think if they were going that route they'd have some rounded curves instead of the sharp angles.

 

[Crissa]

Production intent has to happen at some point. Then units to employees and early beta testers.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

PS: The door panels are a distraction. An effective truss can have holes in it.

That’s why they call it the CyberTruss.


Nobody looking for complete panels here.

Sponsored