Cybertruck Versus.... Bribery and Corruption of Journalists and Media

[Ogre]

What if were true? American legacy brand automakers comeback. And nobody is buying what they have to sell at any price?

There is plenty of demand from consumers for Ford/ Chevy/ Dodge branded EVs. The ability of these companies to learn how to profitably manufacture them and source batteries in the next few years is the big question.

If Tesla keeps with the exponential growth and keeps cranking out super efficient/ longer range/ faster charging & soon more affordable EVs, how long are people going to remain loyal?

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[Sirfun]

There is plenty of demand from consumers for Ford/ Chevy/ Dodge branded EVs. The ability of these companies to learn how to profitably manufacture them and source batteries in the next few years is the big question.

If Tesla keeps with the exponential growth and keeps cranking out super efficient/ longer range/ faster charging & soon more affordable EVs, how long are people going to remain loyal?

How do I say this.
Currently, there is no GM EV that you can order. They talk the talk BUT nope they aren't taking reservations/orders for any EV at this time.
Dodge? Ok you can order a Mach-E(if you want one), But if you order a Lightning you are 4 years out?
So how much demand is there?
I guess you can say consumers want these manufacturers to build EV's. But it's a weird time when consumers don't have a way to consume.
And then there's Tesla, Hmmmm.

 

[rr6013]

If Tesla keeps with the exponential growth and keeps cranking out super efficient/ longer range/ faster charging & soon more affordable EVs, how long are people going to remain loyal?

FORD and Stellantis have runway. Chevy is slow on the uptake compared to how impressively FORD demonstrated it was ready to compete with BEV’s on features alone. Stellantis just inked a huge battery partnership waving its BEV flag for all to see. GM have its big Ultimum branded battery but…color me unimpressed. GM is a huge ocean liner that probably will strike an ICEberg.

At the end of the day, Tesla holds the keys to the future, battery technology roadmap and Gigacashflow algorithm. Pick any one. Legacy automakers could pivot. Pick any two and one of the legacy are doomed. All three present a complete industry disruption that gearheads, enthusiasts and corporate-types are in for their PhD dissertation thesis on First Principles Capitalism.

 

[Ogre]

So how much demand is there?
I guess you can say consumers want these manufacturers to build EV's. But it's a weird time when consumers don't have a way to consume.
And then there's Tesla, Hmmmm.

I'm being a bit generous ok. It's not quite clear where demand is right now all around the table.

FORD and Stellantis have runway. Chevy is slow on the uptake compared to how impressively FORD demonstrated it was ready to compete with BEV’s on features alone. Stellantis just inked a huge battery partnership waving its BEV flag for all to see. GM have its big Ultimum branded battery but…color me unimpressed. GM is a huge ocean liner that probably will strike an ICEberg.

I almost think it's like the 5 phases of ICE withdrawal.

Denial - You think you can just hybrid your way out of this. (Toyota)
Conceit - Stellantis and Ford are here now, they tell everyone loud and clear how they have it under control but really have only managed to just barely crank out a few thousand vehicles based largely on a quick port of the ICE designs. Big high profile deals with battery vendors selling 5 year old tech are made.
Incompetence - This is where GM is... they are just figuring out after 6+ years of making EVs that its hard to go from concept cars to mass production. VW seems to be hanging out here too. Ford might even be here now with the Mustang.
Competence - You can produce 10s of thousands of mediocre cars which don't blow up. Careful or you end up going back a step (GM, looking at you!). You might even accidentally make a profit on selling an EV once in a while.
Scale - You can produce millions of EVs profitably. Can't say any ICE manufacturers have made it here yet.

Tesla didn't have withdrawal so their path was different.

 

[TruckElectric]

Incompetence - This is where GM is..

What showed me GM's incompetence was when they formed a partnership with Nikola.

 

[Crissa]

I'm not sure how you prove the performance of a stove without cooking on it, or the ease of living with a vehicle without living with it.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

I'm not sure how you prove the performance of a stove without cooking on it, or the ease of living with a vehicle without living with it.

-Crissa

Q. How do you verify that a parachute will work?
A. Jump.

First-hand experience is instructive, but not exclusive.

 

[Crissa]

The entire point of a review is for someone to give their first-hand experience.

Anyone can just look at a thing from afar. Doesn't tell you how it works.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

I'm being a bit generous ok. It's not quite clear where demand is right now all around the table.



I almost think it's like the 5 phases of ICE withdrawal.

Denial - You think you can just hybrid your way out of this. (Toyota)
Conceit - Stellantis and Ford are here now, they tell everyone loud and clear how they have it under control but really have only managed to just barely crank out a few thousand vehicles based largely on a quick port of the ICE designs. Big high profile deals with battery vendors selling 5 year old tech are made.
Incompetence - This is where GM is... they are just figuring out after 6+ years of making EVs that its hard to go from concept cars to mass production. VW seems to be hanging out here too. Ford might even be here now with the Mustang.
Competence - You can produce 10s of thousands of mediocre cars which don't blow up. Careful or you end up going back a step (GM, looking at you!). You might even accidentally make a profit on selling an EV once in a while.
Scale - You can produce millions of EVs profitably. Can't say any ICE manufacturers have made it here yet.

Tesla didn't have withdrawal so their path was different.

THE ICE FIVE STAGES OF GRIEF:

1. Denial: I'll never buy a Tesla!
2. Anger: I hate Tesla!
3. Bargaining: What about a hybrid?
4. Depression: I should have bought a Tesla.
5. Acceptance: I bought a Tesla.

 

[CyberGus]

Anyone can just look at a thing from afar. Doesn't tell you how it works.

-Crissa

Men can tell. We dont even read instructions

 

[rr6013]

<snip>
I almost think it's like the 5 phases of ICE withdrawal.

Denial - You think you can just hybrid your way out of this. (Toyota)
Conceit - Stellantis and Ford are here now, they tell everyone loud and clear how they have it under control but really have only managed to just barely crank out a few thousand vehicles based largely on a quick port of the ICE designs. Big high profile deals with battery vendors selling 5 year old tech are made.
Incompetence - This is where GM is... they are just figuring out after 6+ years of making EVs that its hard to go from concept cars to mass production. VW seems to be hanging out here too. Ford might even be here now with the Mustang.
Competence - You can produce 10s of thousands of mediocre cars which don't blow up. Careful or you end up going back a step (GM, looking at you!). You might even accidentally make a profit on selling an EV once in a while.
Scale - You can produce millions of EVs profitably. Can't say any ICE manufacturers have made it here yet.

Tesla didn't have withdrawal so their path was different.

Perfect Matrix / Polar Diagram
NO WITHDRAWAL:
Tesla
RIMAC Automobili
McClaren

Scale:
BYD
BAIC

Competence:
NIO
BAIDU
Porsche SE
GWM

Incompetence:
GM
BMW

Conceit:
FORD
Stellantis
Nissan
FOXCONN
XIAOMI

Denial:
Apple
Toyota
Acura
Honda


Other(400+ EV’s) are candidates for merger or dissolution

 

[Ogre]

Apple

Kind of hard to say Apple is in denial when they've never sold ICE cars!

I see them as a wildcard. They certainly have the competence and engineering chops to pull it off, but I can't see them doing well unless they are willing to get their hands dirty. So far Apple mostly outsources all the hands on parts of their process and I think that would work against them in the auto industry.

 

[rr6013]

Kind of hard to say Apple is in denial when they've never sold ICE cars!

I see them as a wildcard. They certainly have the competence and engineering chops to pull it off, but I can't see them doing well unless they are willing to get their hands dirty. So far Apple mostly outsources all the hands on parts of their process and I think that would work against them in the auto industry.

Apple is married to its software driven-hardware paradigm that SteveJobs created with Macintosh. It is AAPL DNA, unquestionable.

Right…Apple doesn’t get its hands dirty but as of late M1 chip vertical integration might presage fabrication someday. Its anathema to its vehicle development and AAPL doesn’t grok that UX in automotive IS the vehicle - first principles.

Its relying on SteveJob’s delivering a superior user experience to the point of making the “dirty technology” a magical disappearing trick. AAPL is in denial that car porn exist precisely for those dirty bits under the hood, why they are called gearheads and Apple stands to miss out on the biggest stream of cashflow in its history as a result.

Too bad. Apple has much to offer with its integration expertise, inter-communication and interoperability that vehicles will need.

 

[Ogre]

Its anathema to its vehicle development and AAPL doesn’t grok that UX in automotive IS the vehicle - first principles.

Keep in mind, we still don't know if or what Apple's car initiative will look like so don't judge.

I think VW's comments really brought home that Tesla's strength in manufacturing efficiency are pretty huge. If Apple were competing against VW/ GM etc, they could probably use their old approach. Tesla seems on course to radically alter the economics of car-building.

 

[Cybr on]

Apple is married to its software driven-hardware paradigm that SteveJobs created with Macintosh. It is AAPL DNA, unquestionable.

Right…Apple doesn’t get its hands dirty but as of late M1 chip vertical integration might presage fabrication someday. Its anathema to its vehicle development and AAPL doesn’t grok that UX in automotive IS the vehicle - first principles.

Its relying on SteveJob’s delivering a superior user experience to the point of making the “dirty technology” a magical disappearing trick. AAPL is in denial that car porn exist precisely for those dirty bits under the hood, why they are called gearheads and Apple stands to miss out on the biggest stream of cashflow in its history as a result.

Too bad. Apple has much to offer with its integration expertise, inter-communication and interoperability that vehicles will need.

Miyagi: Daniel-san, never put passion before principle. Even if win, you lose.

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