December Deliveries -- How Many?

[BlueStreak91]

If they're super efficient, they'll be able to move me from reservation holder to order holder to truck holder in 30 days. Take out the days lost to the holiday season, and you're looking at 36 days if I get notified today. My number is under 2k, and I've not heard a peep from Tesla, so it's less than 2k trucks between now and the end of the year. Probably a *lot* less.

Sponsored

 

[madquadbiker]

Ok, everyone is just talking about the delivery event on Nov. 30th. So how many deliveries do you guys think we would be expecting in December? Think we will be able to reach 500 trucks by the end of the year?

For the hundreds of thousands of us that won’t be getting one any time soon just one for Sandy on the 1st December so we have something to enjoy until the new year.

 

[Crissa]

No, 300 is built. A fraction have been crashed. Some just outright destroyed. Some torn back apart.

some driving around. Some at GFTX still.

VINs are assigned long before it gets wheels and motors, tho.

-Crissa

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

and let’s be clear on it:

that’s ~300 since ~June 1st, including all RCs, all MCs, and the few delivery event vehicles built in more recently

obviously their ability to speed up increased as the months went on and they transitioned from hand-built RCs to increasingly line-built MCs, etc.

But of that 300, ~120 were RCs built between ~June 1 and late September, then ~100MCs built between late September and ~end of October

So we’re looking at around ~250-280 total trucks built to ~date, with the most recent line-built trucks coming in around 100/month max rate

on those maths, they’ll be able to build somewhere on the order of 100-200 saleable trucks per month this and next month.

but to *deliver* those early units? Needing extra and special attention?

I’m *putting wet finger in the air* guessing that aside from the delivery event units (a couple of dozen), they can get *delivered* in December maybe 100-200 units tops

and that’s assuming they PLAN to try and start serious delivery efforts as of and after the delivery event

and regardless, what kind of trucks they’re delivering to whom might matter to folks - if they go some sort of “Founders” edition route like they have in the past, what they are delivering the next couple of months will be largely irrelevant to us common folks

Elon wants to 'Live Like Common People' and 'Do What Common People Do' .......like drive his CT every day!

 

[greggertruck]

VINs are assigned long before it gets wheels and motors, tho.

-Crissa

Wat? I’m not sure that’s meant to be a response to me?

 

[cvalue13]

Wat? I’m not sure that’s meant to be a response to me?

VINs do get “assigned” internally before build

But VINs don’t show up on NHSTA recall website until other things happen

But details aren’t some folks strong suit

 

[greggertruck]

VINs do get “assigned” internally before build

But VINs don’t show up on NHSTA recall website until other things happen

But details aren’t some folks strong suit

Okay, but I wasn't sure about what that had to do with my reply? It's whatever. Was wondering they @Crissa meant

 

[Crissa]

Wat? I’m not sure that’s meant to be a response to me?

You were just talking over me, that's all.

VINs are assigned to the body, which at this state many are destroyed in testing to make sure everything is being assembled right, not just testing the design.

Which means trucks that never leave the factory are in the vin numberspace. They wouldn't know ahead of time if they'll pass or how many they'll need to do destructive tests on, except in aggregate.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

How many have been made to date is irrelevant if I believe @cvalue13 because he is always differentiating between hand builts on the low-volume release candidate line and those that will be built on the high-volume line. Somewhere here it was said that the delivery event would not be scheduled/held until the high-volume line was complete, so number counting really has to start now. If Tesla 'ever' made 10/day on the LV line then 10/day would have to be the low-end starting number for the HV line, most likely more. My old guess, before the 2-month delay of the delivery event, was about 2,500. I think it is possible that they can build and deliver somewhere between 250-1,000 trucks. Most likely none of them to reservation holders but to employees, friends, luminaries, 'influencers', and such. I would like to think that they can get to 250/week by January 1, 2024.

 

[cvalue13]

How many have been made to date is irrelevant if I believe @cvalue13 because he is always differentiating between hand builts on the low-volume release candidate line and those that will be built on the high-volume line.

Two distinctions regarding the high-volume production line:

• just because they start building on the hv production line, doesn’t mean “production” has begun, which is to say that the line hasn’t necessarily begun building normal-course, saleable units to normal retail customers

• Just because they’re building on the hv production line (pre-production OR production), doesn’t mean the line is yet dialed-in or fully commissioned, or reaching significant speed/volumes

Which is to say, regardless of the delivery event units, and - if Tesla goes this route - any ‘founders’ or special initial builds thereafter, it could be weeks or months before actual production begins, and weeks or month after THAT before the line is fully built and commissioned.

“Production” begins at Job #1 of the first saleable retail units.

So, you’re onto something maybe more than you’ve pieced together when you say:

I think it is possible that they can build and deliver somewhere between 250-1,000 trucks. Most likely none of them to reservation holders but to employees, friends, luminaries, 'influencers', and such.

If Tesla went a route similar to this, like they have in the past, with what amount to special pre-production ‘founders’ units not sold in normal course arms-length retail, then it could be simultaneously true that they build and sell 1000 trucks, and not have begun production. Which is to say, not have built a single unit intended to be delivered on normal course terms to normal course retail customers.

And it’s possible if not likely that those 1000 trucks take a few more months to build (to #1000) and a few weeks or months after that to get delivered.

Which brings me to:

If Tesla 'ever' made 10/day on the LV line then 10/day would have to be the low-end starting number for the HV line, most likely more.

First, they’ve never made 10/day on the LV line. Numbers like that only ever came from eg Joe
irrationally believing that the number of units showing up in the outbound lot had some correlation to - what?- the prior day’s builds? It was blind leading blind game of telephone.

Second, even if the LV line had built 10 in a day, it’s irrelevant to the speeds at which the hv line is capable in early ramp. If, eg, the hv’s windshield installing robot is failing 19 out of 20 installs (using a cartoon example), that’s an entirely different and unrelated problem set to whether on the lv line they have 10 or 100 builders hand-installing windshields.



Which is all to say, the delivery event can happen, AND they could begin with ~pre-production ‘founders’ units, and they could still be wrestling with the line - all for MONTHS before production begins on Job #1, and even THEN it could be further MONTHS before the line is materially ramped.

I’ve said here many times before, it’s been as much as 4 months between delivery event and start of production - and months after that before production at any material rate. And THOSE weren’t for entirely novel line processes/materials.

Taken everything I’ve said above, it’s why I remind folks of Tesla’s historical production volumes in the first 4 quarters after actual production began:


Model 3: 30k
Model Y: 70k
Model S refresh: 19k
Model X refresh: 19k
Semi (3 of 4 quarters): zero

Meanwhile, with respect to “the line” here’s how well that held up when they had produced fewer than the above 30k units in 4 quarters:

​

We have no idea what the ramp and delivery process will look like for Cybertruck That said... ​

​

Model 3 had around 450k reservations (btw, these were $1000 deposits, not $100 that anyone can throw around for the heck of it). Of those 450k, over 200k were in the first day. Model 3 production started July 2017. It took 6 months to start delivering to non employees. They delivered just 1770 Model 3s in that last six months of 2017. I had a reservation in the 20,000 range (I stood in line for 3.5 hours to place my deposit, sight unseen). That first car was delivered to me on March 31, 2018. It was VIN 8830. At this point 9,950 Model 3s total had been delivered, in 9 months of production. By the end of June 2018, they were still delivering to day one reservation holders. At this point they had been in production one year and had delivered a total of 28,390 Model 3s, just over 1/10 of the day one reservations. In July 2018, one year after production start, Tesla opened up ordering to everyone, INCLUDING people who didn't even reserve a Model 3! The reservation only mattered for those day one, pre reveal reservations, and even that, just barely made a difference. I stood in line and was one of the first 20k and only got my car 5 months before people who didn't even reserve one. Cybertruck will likely be a little different, but you just never know if your place in line will mean anything at all.”​

​

​

 

[cvalue13]

PS, these distinctions mentioned above - the technical consequences of starting “production” and how Tesla could nonetheless begin still selling non-retail units in 2024 - are possibly what’s being missed by these folks below:

 

[Crissa]

How many have been made to date is irrelevant if I believe @cvalue13 because he is always differentiating between hand builts on the low-volume release candidate line and those that will be built on the high-volume line. Somewhere here it was said that the delivery event would not be scheduled/held until the high-volume line was complete, so number counting really has to start now. If Tesla 'ever' made 10/day on the LV line then 10/day would have to be the low-end starting number for the HV line, most likely more. My old guess, before the 2-month delay of the delivery event, was about 2,500. I think it is possible that they can build and deliver somewhere between 250-1,000 trucks. Most likely none of them to reservation holders but to employees, friends, luminaries, 'influencers', and such. I would like to think that they can get to 250/week by January 1, 2024.

Excepting the fact Elon implied that each earnings calls and I pointed it out on the forum repeatedly before cvalue was a member?

Why mention his mention of it?

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Excepting the fact Elon implied that each earnings calls and I pointed it out on the forum repeatedly before cvalue was a member?

Why mention his mention of it?

-Crissa

Because @cvalue13 has made [many] comments about the difference between LV and HV builds and so many people are trying to extrapolate from LV production rates to HV production rates. I did it too and he straightened me out, which I appreciated. So now I take the LV production rate as a baseline for HV production.

I do not recall you or Elon saying that a production rate of 250/week in January, 2024 was the baseline. Sorry.

 

[VR Driving]

Still no Tesla App updates with Cybertruck assets. Very likely we may not see them until true customer deliveries. The Model 3 and Semi received their assets in the app about a month before deliveries to retail customers.

 

[cvalue13]

I do not recall you or Elon saying that a production rate of 250/week in January, 2024 was the baseline. Sorry.

FAIK, Musk has only talked about reaching a 250k trucks built per year “once CT line reaches full production.” That was in response to Q&A at Investor day. This is an total annual production, and wasn’t tied to any timeline of expectation as to when that would occur.

But separately and more recently, last Q3 call, Musk talked of line capacity, which is of course different. There, he staked out that line capacity would reach a run rate of 250K / yr, sometime in 2025. (Separately, the Q3 deck said for 2024 the line capacity was half that, 125k/yr rate max).

Assuming Musk’s timing expectations are correct (), if the line doesn’t reach a rate of 250k/yr until 2025, not until 2026 could the total annual production reach 250k.


Where 250 trucks/week metric comes from I wouldn’t know. I would be shocked to hear that Musk has ever given that level of granularity to their early ramp expectations, much less that it wouldn’t have been quoted repeatedly around here ever since.

Sponsored