firsttruck

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1.) There will be a ton of quality competition out in 2022. (25% cancellation). The CT is really big. Many buyers will opt for the Rivian SUV due to size alone.
The Cybertruck is the same size as thre most popular trucks in the USA.
Ford F-150, GMC/Chevy 1500, RAM 1500
There are almost 2 million sold every year.

The Cybertruck reservation estimate is close too 1 million.
You could have a 66.6 cancel rate and still have so many buyers (330K) that it would take Tesla two years to fulfill the backlog.

And all those buyers never even touched a Cybertruck and most will have waited over years .

Other buyers will wait until Cybertruck ships & they can get a demo or know someone that has a Cybertruck.

The day the Cybertruck starts being delivered to customers will be the day the Cybertruck back-orders starts growing to the moon.


2.) Who knows what financial condition each of us will be in. I think a ton of people put down $100 with no idea how they would afford a $70,000 truck.
Why do you talk about price $70K just like the Detriot ICE "experts" did.

The base without FSD Cybertruck is $40K. The features on the base $40K model far exceeds the $40K ICE base model. Many people will buy the $40K Cybertruck. The next Cybertruck dual motor without FSD is $50K. That $50K is less than the price of average sold ICE ($54K) and again has more features people want than ICE. The most expensive Cybertruck tri-motor without FSD is $70K. The most expensive model starts taking market share from the more expensive & hugely fuel inefficient ICE heavy duty range. All of this does not include the huge TCO savings of BEV truck.

90% (almost 3 million) of ICE buyers pay $40K-$60K and the Cybertruck has that price range well covered.





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firsttruck

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I do appreciate how he tears down into the numbers. I don't know anything about what the numbers are relating to current trucks...

But ultimately, I think it's compelling numbers that will sell EV trucks, not looks.

-Crissa
Yup, in business the bias is toward what the numbers favor.


Cybertruck Building Support with Construction Pros
Survey of midwest-based professional/contractor type pickup truck buyers
Gene Munster
2020 Feb 26
https://loupventures.com/cybertruck-building-support-with-construction-pros/

.....
Something bigger is going on. Stepping back, we left with the feeling that the speed of EV adoption is setting up to trend faster than we anticipated. We entered the conversations expecting to hear clear concerns about EV’s shortcomings. Instead, 10 of the 22 said their next truck will be electric, 4 undecided, and 8 expecting to stay with an internal combination. In other words, two-thirds of construction pros are positive or neutral on EV’s.

Tesla’s product awareness is favorable with 11 of the 22 claiming they were aware that Tesla had announced an electric pick up, and only 4 of 22 could name the truck.

Intent to buy was higher than we expected, with 5 of the 22 intending to purchase a Cybertruck in the next 5 years. While there’s a gap between intending to buy a truck and actually purchasing a $45-$55k vehicle, the intent to buy was higher than we expected.

Pros think Cybertruck is more expensive than it actually will be. We showed a photo of Cybertruck and added that a base model Ford 150 starts at $29k. Next, we asked them to guess Cybertruck’s base model price. The average was $84k, with a median of $80k and a range of $45k-$220k. The actual base model pricing is expected to be $40k (2WD option). The 4WD with full self-driving version is priced at $57k. We expect the average selling price with add-ons will be closer to $55k.
* most thought Cybertruck would cost $80K or more instead of $50K dual motor.

Last, we discussed how they would feel driving up to a job site in a Cybertruck (with the photo visible to them) and asked, given its brutalist design, would you be embarrassed to show up to work in this truck. Only 3 of 22 said they would be embarrassed.
** So 87% would not be embarrassed.
 

Tinker71

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The Cybertruck is the same size as thre most popular trucks in the USA.
Ford F-150, GMC/Chevy 1500, RAM 1500
There are almost 2 million sold every year.

The Cybertruck reservation estimate is close too 1 million.
You could have a 66.6 cancel rate and still have so many buyers (330K) that it would take Tesla two years to fulfill the backlog.

And all those buyers never even touched a Cybertruck and most will have waited over years .

Other buyers will wait until Cybertruck ships & they can get a demo or know someone that has a Cybertruck.

The day the Cybertruck starts being delivered to customers will be the day the Cybertruck back-orders starts growing to the moon.




Why do you talk about price $70K just like the Detriot ICE "experts" did.

The base without FSD Cybertruck is $40K. The features on the base $40K model far exceeds the $40K ICE base model. Many people will buy the $40K Cybertruck. The next Cybertruck dual motor without FSD is $50K. That $50K is less than the price of average sold ICE ($54K) and again has more features people want than ICE. The most expensive Cybertruck tri-motor without FSD is $70K. The most expensive model starts taking market share from the more expensive & hugely fuel inefficient ICE heavy duty range. All of this does not include the huge TCO savings of BEV truck.

90% (almost 2 million) of ICE buyers pay $40K-$60K and the Cybertruck has that price range well covered.
I think we are down to less than 15% of CT ordered as single motor with more leaning towards the tri motor now than the dual motor. Add FSD, taxes, delivery fees and other option prices we have not even seen yet and the average CT will be closer to $70k.

I sold my last truck in 2009. I prefer to use trailers for heavy/dirty or occasional loads. As CTG said the Detroit guys are missing the mark as far as how many people really want an SUV or even a sportscar but may purchase a CT. I think a lot of CT buyers will end up with a Rivian SUV for just that reason. People that tow a lot will opt out. People without a place to charge at home will opt out.

At the end of the day the annual market for all trucks and larger SUV is "people that can truly afford a $45-$85K vehicle, have the space, can justify the need in their minds" That market is only so big and will be split between CT/Rivian/Ford Electric/Hummer, full ICE diehards, compelling plug in hybrids. High demand for CT(wait times) will actually force many people to the other options. I don't see Tesla building capacity for more than 200 thousand units annually. 6 years is a long time to wait for a truck. The wild card it my mind is really pent up demand. People that are actually saving or planning for the expense now.

Don't get me wrong. I am pumped for the CT. If 300000 people buy a CT in the next 4 years it would be a huge success. I think it will be an industry leader for many years, but that might only be 25% of the total market.
 

firsttruck

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I think we are down to less than 15% of CT ordered as single motor with more leaning towards the tri motor now than the dual motor.
The percent of buyer for single motor should increase. The single motor Cybertruck has more power than the base model ICE trucks which are all single ICE motors.

Single motor buyers are a little more restrained. They want to see Cybertruck in real-life, demo it, know neighbors that have one. Also many fleet buyers will buy single motor. They are not going to reserve now for 10 or 100 trucks. They will only reserve one now.
I would get laughed out of the room if I went to the CFO asking for 1,000 to $3,000 for reservations for trucks I have never seen personally (and almost nobody else has either, only a few hundred saw it at the reveal) and these trucks would not be delivered until 2-3 years in the future.

To private buyer who want $40K Cybertruck, $100 is more of a commitment & these buyers perceive there is more risk. Are all the Nikola Badger reservation holders going to get there money back??? I hope those Badger hopefuls get refunds but I would be concerned. For many people who do not have a lot of excess funds even $100 is significant and waiting is prudent.

Add FSD, taxes, delivery fees and other option prices we have not even seen yet and the average CT will be closer to $70k.
Even without FSD the features of the Cybertruck exceed an ICE truck at the same price point.

The Tesla standard Autopilot even exceeds what the ICE competitors have.
Why are you going to add FSD when none of the ICE competitors have anything remotely close??

Once Tesla has ramped production & all three models are available with only 1-2 month wait the mix of models will probably closely mirror the historical ICE price distribution with single motor & dual motors in price range of $40K-$55K being the vast majority of sales.
 
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firsttruck

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Don't get me wrong. I am pumped for the CT. If 300,000 people buy a CT in the next 4 years it would be a huge success. I think it will be an industry leader for many years, but that might only be 25% of the total market.
300,000 over 4 year period is way below 25% of pickup truck market. There were over 3 million ICE pickups sold in 2019. Years 2017 & 2018 were a little below 3 million each year. Even with the pandemic the 2020 forecast is 2.8 million.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/746742/number-of-new-pickup-sales-in-the-united-states/

Four years from now Tesla should be selling over 300,000 a year.

Some analysts already predict Cybertruck sales will exceed RAM truck sales so that Tesla passes RAM and Tesla becomes #3 in truck sales.

Tesla Cybertruck: latest data shows it’s set to beat a major truck brand
The company's stainless steel behemoth is proving popular.
2020 Mar 9
https://www.inverse.com/innovation/...ows-its-on-track-to-beat-a-major-pickup-truck
 

Crissa

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1) True. There will be competition.
1a) The Rivian is smaller in only one dimension, the one that makes it less of a truck. It is, however, much more expensive.
2) True. Model 3 had 25% drop by the end.
3) Maybe. But why would they put down $100? And would that mean demand would suddenly slump to the point that they wouldn't find a price in the secondary market?
4) They don't really count. By the time those orders are up for delivery, open sales in North America will exist.
5-6) True, but sales estimates mostly ignore these as well. Tesla tends to serve existing and then single-piece before multiple item orders.
7) Those are mostly going to employees. There will be enough to cover the early models, FOMO is real.

-Crissa
 

Tinker71

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300,000 over 4 year period is way below 25% of pickup truck market. There were over 3 million ICE pickups sold in 2019. Years 2017 & 2018 were a little below 3 million each year. Even with the pandemic the 2020 forecast is 2.8 million.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/746742/number-of-new-pickup-sales-in-the-united-states/

Four years from now Tesla should be selling over 300,000 a year.

Some analysts already predict Cybertruck sales will exceed RAM truck sales so that Tesla passes RAM and Tesla becomes #3 in truck sales.

Tesla Cybertruck: latest data shows it’s set to beat a major truck brand
The company's stainless steel behemoth is proving popular.
2020 Mar 9
https://www.inverse.com/innovation/...ows-its-on-track-to-beat-a-major-pickup-truck
As a owner of a fair amount of TSLA stock I hope you are right. Market's tend to correct themselves. A Ford ice for example has a fairly large profit margin. The price of a fancy Ford might drop to $40k just to maintain market share. TSLA should stay on their toes and continue to innovate and bring down the manufacturing cost and take nothing for granted.
 

kdn

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This video is nearly a year old. I don't surf these site much but I watch for something like this. It just shows that the ICE guys have their heads in the sand. They may be able to lower thinner price a little but considering maintenance and fuel costs only truck owners who haven't experienced an eV or don't have enough sense to figure it out that the EV is saving them big time over the ownership period. I just think about how my F250's all rusted out over the years of ownership. I dropped Ford 5 years ago for Toyota Tundra. No rust, no repairs in 5 years for my Tundra. My last F250 had $13,000 in warranted and unwarranted repairs in the first five years. Some of the repairs all in the design of the truck systems. Why would you want that over a truck that is stainless steel with no ICE? It's a no brainer.
 

jerhenderson

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Thanks CTG for your breakdown of the interview. I don't think the CT will flop at all, but the Detroit guys do make some valid points about the total market even if they underestimate the market by half or more due to the factors you mentioned. That being said I do think 70% of reservation holders will cancel or delay. Sustained production runs over 100k units per year is highly unlikely.

1.) There will be a ton of quality competition out in 2022. (25% cancellation). The CT is really big. Many buyers will opt for the Rivian SUV due to size alone.
2.) Who knows what financial condition each of us will be in. I think a ton of people put down $100 with no idea how they would afford a $70,000 truck. I think people currently in a 5-8 year term on a $60k truck are going to be sadly disappointed in the resale/trade in value of their current rig in 2022 which will prevent them from making their purchase. (25% cancellation/delay)
3.) Lots of people will chicken out at the design. That being said people who bought it for the novel look won't think it is novel when there are 100,000 of these out on the road. (5% cancellation)
4.) I have seen post that up to 25% of reservations were out of country. Maybe non spec countries. (5% cancellation/delay)
5.) Many people have duplicate reservations, being not sure what model they really want. (5% cancellation)
6.) The robo taxi thing with multiple orders for a fleet is intriguing. If FSD isn't perfect at the time of pulling the trigger all of them may go away. (5% cancellation)
7.) I would be a little leery about owning a model coming of the line in the first 3 months. Many of these guys may chicken out and hold out for a proven model. (5% cancellation/delay)
I really don't comprehend the view that the CT is really big..... its the size of an F150.
Being dissuaded from a CT because its the size of a Ford means to me that these people have never had a truck.
 

Ehninger1212

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I really don't comprehend the view that the CT is really big..... its the size of an F150.
Being dissuaded from a CT because its the size of a Ford means to me that these people have never had a truck.
Tesla took it even a step further, the CT is "within the space" of a ford F-150. meaning equal to or smaller. It just looks massive, its all about perception. Once they are rolling around cities people will see its really not that massive.
 

azjohn

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I really don't comprehend the view that the CT is really big..... its the size of an F150.
Being dissuaded from a CT because its the size of a Ford means to me that these people have never had a truck.
Agree
1/2 ton is the smallest size I would want, prefer a 3/4 ton
 

Jon Snow

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I have a rather different take. I have always owned trucks btw.

1. The competition’s trucks by 2022 are more expensive by far and less capable, and the sweet spot in the truck market is 6.5 foot box crew-cabs. Exactly what CT is and the competition isn’t.
2. World economy. During a pandemic Tesla and other BEVs increased sales while ICE dropped. The market is the truck market .. demand will outpace supply for the next 10 years BEVs are better.
3. Looks. We have what ... a million orders and a massive market to sell into. Doesn’t seem looks are an issue at all. Tons of people love the look or don’t care.
4. Out of country ... not sure about that one.
5. Duplicates .. not sure about that one either .. could be, but I think the tables on this site already take that into account.
6. FSD - Not a factor at all if you think about it ... no other OEM has this as an option at all. If a buyer likes the idea of FSD, Tesla is your only bet.
7. Early buyers. Tons of us are fine with it. Ask early MS buyers .. yes there were issues .. but Tesla makes it right. I’m certainly willing to buy early!

The CT will be one of the most popular vehicles on the market IMHO ... the value equation is simply too good to ignore.
 

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So watching your comments Todd, combined with the clip you show of Sandy, I am thinking the following.

1. Seems like there are a large number of 1/2 ton pickup owners that actually own 2 vehicles. The truck for hauling, working, camping, etc and the 2nd vehicle for convenience, fun, thrills. You mention you have the moderate Tacoma truck and a motorcycle for fun. Sandy mentions Jeep buyers who then own a Mustang. And I know a lot of my relatives who have a similar setup. For family reasons I drive a Toyota Sienna and haul with a trailer. But if I had the cash I would have bought a pickup instead of the trailer.

2. If you look at the cost of the 2 vehicles together, you are well above the cost of a single-vehicle Cybertruck. If you have a conservative person who buys a dual-motor CT, it's cheaper than if that person were to buy a midlevel 1/2 ton pickup and a nice motorcycle or something like a mustang. If you have someone who really wants the added functionality and fun available, the tri-motor CT is MUCH cheaper than buying a decked-out pickup along with a nice sports car. Pretty much however you slice it, a single CT will be much cheaper than the 2 vehicle setups that many people are dealing with right now.

3. And then we can compare on functionality. Compare the CT with either of the 2 vehicles that most truck owners are using and the CT will almost always win on functionality. The CT can do almost everything that is desired and do it so well that it will far outcompete in functionality. Sure there are a few areas where there isn't a good fit. You mentioned the 8 ft bed truck bed. If you compare to supercars the CT is not going to be going 200 miles an hour or out compete at the Nürburgring track. But the price of that kind of functionality is so way out past the cost of the CT that there really is no reason to compare it.

4. Based on the points above, I imagine that with the great sales of the CT there will be a drop not just in the number of ICE trucks, but also in the number of ICE fun vehicles. Things like motorcycles, sports cars, etc. Not everyone will stop buying the second vehicle. But I can also see trades. For instance, someone who would have bought an ICE truck and a sports car, might instead buy a CT and then add on a motorcycle instead of a sports car. Or add an ATV instead of a motorcycle. Or some other change. But the second vehicle will be decided upon based on price and added fun. Not strictly on functionality.

Overall I think the experts in the video you showed are going to be eating crow. And it won't take a ton of time. There is going to be a huge change in the marketplace and the traditional experts seem to be completely blind to it. Makes one wonder what experts are really good for.

But hey, I'm just spouting my view. I'm no expert. Now if someone would like to start paying me to spout off, I'd consider the label of expert........... No one? Crickets? Ok, I'll shut up and watch this whole thing play out.
When it comes to the so called "Experts", 'they' have been wrong in almost every occurrence regarding Tesla, right? Pretty pathetic track record so far...
 

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