Final Cybertruck Production Version: when will we see

[Ogre]

We already have seen it, exterior wise..

INTERIOR... I'm worried there will just be a delivery event and we won't get our update on it til people start just getting them in August/ September.

I HOPE we see it by Q1 earnings call (mid/ late April).

We’ve seen the interior.

Going to be super easy to clean thank god.

Well except the bit where you have to clean out that little bit of mustard that ends up on the bottom of your windshield because you left a sandwich on the dash and had to grab brake.

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[Bill906]

We’ve seen the interior.

Going to be super easy to clean thank god.

Well except the bit where you have to clean out that little bit of mustard that ends up on the bottom of your windshield because you left a sandwich on the dash and had to grab brake.

I think I've told this story before on this forum, but It's one of my favorites. Sorry for the repeat if I did.

A close college friend of mine drives all over the midwest for work putting on many highway miles. I consider him a good driver, but sometimes he can be a bit of an aggressive driver. He was on a long stretch of interstate and came up on a Mercedes SUV going barely the speed limit in the left (fast) lane. He came up behind them and followed them slowly closing the gap between them trying to send a message that then need to be in the right (slow) lane. They decided to brake check him. He then passed them on the right and saw it was two young girls in the car. He then got in front of them and did a hard brake check on them. In his rearview mirror all he saw was red and green all over their windshield. They each had a large Slurpee that is now oozing its way down the defrost vents of their parents car.

 

[sstevens805]

I think I've told this story before on this forum, but It's one of my favorites. Sorry for the repeat if I did.

A close college friend of mine drives all over the midwest for work putting on many highway miles. I consider him a good driver, but sometimes he can be a bit of an aggressive driver. He was on a long stretch of interstate and came up on a Mercedes SUV going barely the speed limit in the left (fast) lane. He came up behind them and followed them slowly closing the gap between them trying to send a message that then need to be in the right (slow) lane. They decided to brake check him. He then passed them on the right and saw it was two young girls in the car. He then got in front of them and did a hard brake check on them. In his rearview mirror all he saw was red and green all over their windshield. They each had a large Slurpee that is now oozing its way down the defrost vents of their parents car.

This makes me think of the Orange Mocha Frappuccino scene in zoolander

 

[Mini2nut]

We all know what the production version will look like. The Fremont test track footage shows what I predict will be the exact truck that's going into production this summer. The only revision may be the windshield wiper setup.

Revised MSRP's, dimensions and specifications are a different story. It's in Tesla's best interest to reveal the exact numbers as late as possible for competitive advantage reasons. It's even more relevant if they run into production snags and the truck is delayed again.

 

[Ogre]

I think I've told this story before on this forum, but It's one of my favorites. Sorry for the repeat if I did.

A close college friend of mine drives all over the midwest for work putting on many highway miles. I consider him a good driver, but sometimes he can be a bit of an aggressive driver. He was on a long stretch of interstate and came up on a Mercedes SUV going barely the speed limit in the left (fast) lane. He came up behind them and followed them slowly closing the gap between them trying to send a message that then need to be in the right (slow) lane. They decided to brake check him. He then passed them on the right and saw it was two young girls in the car. He then got in front of them and did a hard brake check on them. In his rearview mirror all he saw was red and green all over their windshield. They each had a large Slurpee that is now oozing its way down the defrost vents of their parents car.

A few years ago I was mountain biking with a friend. Finished up and piled into her car. I was thirsty and drinking some Gatorade as she backed the car up. Backed it up right into a telephone pole.

Since I was lifting the Gatorade up to my face when this happened I got a huge face full of red sugary beverage… and the interior of her car was essentially painted with red sugary liquid. Get a call from her 3 years later, she was having the car detailed prior to selling it and the detailer asked her where there was red goop in the CD player.

I’d love for the Cybertruck to be cleanable with a shop vac.

 

[John K]

Cup holder inserts, door pocket inserts and rubberized floor Matt’s are everyone’s friend. Pop out, wash in sink or hose down. No more trying to get to the crevices with a large hand in a small space.

btw, wife got a new non EV car this weekend. She got a coffee at the dealership. Guess what spilled a little in the cup holder? I told her she just wanted to mark her territory.

 

[HaulingAss]

We all know what the production version will look like. The Fremont test track footage shows what I predict will be the exact truck that's going into production this summer. The only revision may be the windshield wiper setup.

Revised MSRP's, dimensions and specifications are a different story. It's in Tesla's best interest to reveal the exact numbers as late as possible for competitive advantage reasons. It's even more relevant if they run into production snags and the truck is delayed again.

The reason Tesla doesn't just release information as soon as it's finalized is because things are never finalized at Tesla, if they see a better way to do something, they will do it and it's not good to not be consistent with messaging. If there is no compelling reason to release information, they will not release it. That's just common sense. They don't need to drum up interest because there are already more people who want one than Tesla can fulfill in any reasonable timeframe and that number will grow as people learn more about it.

As for releasing specific details late for competitive advantage reasons, no, that's silly. The Cybertruck will have no competition that matters. No one will be able to touch the value offered by the Cybertruck. It will be so far ahead of the so called competition that Tesla is not worried about selling all they can make.

 

[Cyberman]

I'm smaat. Not like everybody says, like dumb. I'm smaat, and I want respect!

 

[John K]

I'm smaat. Not like everybody says, like dumb. I'm smaat, and I want respect!

I have a headache now

 

[Cyberman]

I have a headache now

My ex-wife used that line on me once too many...

 

[charliemagpie]

'Due to Covid delaying the release by at least a year, CT prices have increased 5%'

Official correction:
'Inflation is in play.... increase is 12%'

Official correction:
'There has been a drop in wholesale prices ... looks like the increase is only 8%'

Official correction:
Fed Interest rate is taking effect, looks like there will be no increase at all'

Official correction:
New tech has made it cheaper to manufacture, COGS have come in less than expected, some tooling has improved throughput.
Prices are actually 20% below the original advertised price.

 

[ED_SFO]

If production betas are there at Austin already...i don't see why it won't show up at the investor day meeting for a hot second. That meeting is meant for current and future investors to get hyped for the roadmap ahead. CT should create interest with it's final production version about to be made soon.

 

[HaulingAss]

Official correction:
New tech has made it cheaper to manufacture, COGS have come in less than expected, some tooling has improved throughput.
Prices are actually 20% below the original advertised price.

Haha! I guess there's not much harm in dreaming!

But realistically, I think the upper and lower price limits are driven by two different things. Obviously, when the cost to produce rises such that they cannot be sold for the anticipated prices, the price has to go up to make production sustainable, assuming there is market demand at the higher prices. If not, the product is not viable if the manufacturer can't figure out how to produce it for less.

However, there is another dynamic at play when the cost to produce is much less than the anticipated price. To understand this dynamic, let's assume in some magical world it only costs $10K to produce a 320-mile 4X4 Cybertruck. Does that mean Tesla will say, "We want 30% margins so we will lower the price to $14,000"?

All of a sudden, people are emptying their piggy-banks to buy one and the truck becomes unavailable for 4 years or longer. It's unobtainable in any normal sense of the word. Scalpers are everywhere selling it for the true market value of $55-$60K to people who don't want to wait. People stop buying the Model Y because they can get 3 Cybertrucks for the same price and sell 2 of them and have money left over to burn.

Pricing the truck too low comes with a myriad of problems and creates untenable wait times for new customers, giving a bad customer experience. If Tesla knew they wouldn't have the batteries to put Cybertruck into production until 2023, they never would have revealed it as early as late 2019. But COVID happened and there was unexpectedly high demand for their other EV's.

Essentially, manufacturer's price their vehicles based upon what they think the market is willing and able to pay in the volumes they want to sell them at. If they over-estimate demand, they have to sell them for less, even if it means losing money on everyone they sell. But they will never lower prices too far below what the actual market value of the vehicle is. Basically, a limit on the number of batteries they can make or buy, whether it's due to limitations on raw materials or a limit on installed production capacity, will limit their ability to manufacture in high enough volumes to satisfy market demand if the price is too far lower than market value.

What this means for people with high reservation numbers is they want Tesla's ramp of 4680 batteries to happen without unexpected problems and for raw materials supply to grow rapidly to meet demand for ever increasing numbers of batteries.

Competing with vehicles for batteries is the utility scale energy storage market. It sounds like Tesla has essentially unlimited demand for multi-million-dollar Megapacks which can use any kind of batteries that are available. These are high margin sales in volume, so they compete directly with Tesla's ability to scale auto production.

Putting all of this together, there is absolutely zero chance Cybertruck will be sold for a song. Because all trucks, including ICE vehicles, are much more expensive now than in 2019, there's not even much chance that Tesla will hit the prices they anticipated in 2019, regardless of their cost to produce. It's all about the batteries!

This same dynamic probably means the initial production will not include 500-mile varients (unless 4680 production ramp beats expectations). Tesla would rather sell more 300-mile versions than 40% fewer 500-mile versions.

 

[TyPope]

... If they over-estimate demand, they have to sell them for less, even if it means losing money on everyone they sell.

Nicely thought out. But, remember, it's illegal and immoral to sell people.
everyone vs. every one

 

[Ogre]

Tesla’s new radar tech. They’ve lobbied to have the FCC keep the details confidential until March 7th. This is just coincidentally 6 days after Cybertruck Final Reveal Tesla’s March 1st Investor Meeting.

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