When we will see the final design?

[madquadbiker]

https://insideevs.com/news/589457/elon-musk-confirms-tesla-cybertruck-massive-giga-press/ "Updated" video shows IRDA still assembling the giga press for the CT at its manufacturing plant. If the IDRA Open House is correct,

From June 6th - 30th 2022
We are honoured to offer you a preview in our facility to show you the latest design in Die Cast Machines. You will be one of the first to preview our new 9000t Giga Press under test including the 5S injection system as well as other medium sized fully integrated manufacturing cells. Come and see the real thing. https://www.idragroup.com/en/news/idra-open-house-until-30-june-2022

it's fully(?) assembled and being tested. Once Elon/Tesla accepts the press, it needs to be carefully disassembled and packaged for shipment in a thousand containers (/s). These need to be placed on a ship destined for Port of Houston (very large), Texas City (large) or one of the large ports near Matagorda. Port of Genova, Genoa, Italy is a shipping container port that appears the closest to Travagliato (144 miles). I presume they'll use rail service to get to Austin but because of its width it might go by a large number of massive trucks. http://www.worldportsource.com/ports/USA_TX.php Once it gets to Austin, of course during the hotest part of the year, it will need to be unloaded (no small feat), reassembled and re-tested. Found a website that said it could take 25 days for a container ship to go from Genoa to Houston.

None of this will be easy or quick. IF the giga press is ready to be shipped, I could see it taking almost a month to disassemble and package, another month to get to Houston by container ship, at least a week loading the containers onto trucks/trailers and getting it to Austin. Unload and assembling might ONLY take a month, probably more, then re-testing basic functions before even trying it's first press. I'm sure it will take a month or two to get the first usable chassis so I'm looking positively at December before Testa is ready to produce anything they could use for crash testing and everything else they need to test before producing any sellable CT.

Damn, that's a lot of things still to do. I forgot to even mention the construction and testing of the assembly line along with SS metal brakes and everything else. If the first CT is released by this time next year I would be very happy.

And what are they making during these tests, surely CT parts.

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[Deleted member 12457]

And what are they making during these tests, surely CT parts.

It's my understanding the only parts the giga press will make are the rear chassis and (maybe) the front chassis (two parts?). I don't see if being used for anything else. I don't believe Tesla can use any test pieces until they entire CT has been approved. Remember all the Model Y castings? I don't believe those were allowed to be used in cars being sold. R=The CT test castings would follow the same testing and approval process.

 

[madquadbiker]

It's my understanding the only parts the giga press will make are the rear chassis and (maybe) the front chassis (two parts?). I don't see if being used for anything else. I don't believe Tesla can use any test pieces until they entire CT has been approved. Remember all the Model Y castings? I don't believe those were allowed to be used in cars being sold. R=The CT test castings would follow the same testing and approval process.

I was just thinking out loud, who makes the mould for the front and rear castings, if it‘s IRDA wouldn’t it be great to get a sneak look at one of their test pieces.

 

[FutureBoy]

I was just thinking out loud, who makes the mould for the front and rear castings, if it‘s IRDA wouldn’t it be great to get a sneak look at one of their test pieces.

You could just apply to work on the assembly line. That way I’m sure you could get your fix to see all the parts early.

 

[Deleted member 12457]

I was just thinking out loud, who makes the mould for the front and rear castings, if it‘s IRDA wouldn’t it be great to get a sneak look at one of their test pieces.

I imagine IDRA would make the molds but I could easily be wrong. I also wonder if since the CT design has been finalized, the molds also have been made and will be coming with the press. Tesla has made a few CTs but I can't see them making the chassis on the smaller giga presses and I don't remember seeing any chassis images posted anywhere. Seeing the mold would give us a better idea of the underbody construction but I'd rather see an entire CT made.

@FutureBoy As for getting a job on the assembly line, I'm not a robot so getting a job wouldn't help any.

 

[FutureBoy]

@FutureBoy As for getting a job on the assembly line, I'm not a robot so getting a job wouldn't help any.

I wonder which of these jobs would have the most direct view into the workings of the CT assembly...

 

[charliemagpie]

We recently guesstimated 3 months for delivery (end of Sept), and 6 months of setting up for Production (March 2023).

Elon saying Mid 2023, perhaps it will take this long to get to production, or just maybe the extra few months is to gear up the batteries for semi and CT ramp.

 

[HaulingAss]

edit: My "SS metal brakes" might be misunderstood. By "brakes" I meant a metal brake tool capable of bending sheet metal. The term is obvious to me but when we're talking about a truck that has brakes it can be confusing.

Originally, shortly after the Cybertruck was revealed, I assumed it would be bent with an automated industrial brake. Given what I've seen over the last several months, I have a different take:

The SS panels will be progressively bent and progressively hardened at high speed on long lines full of hydraulic rollers. It will be surface hardened under high pressure rollers at 10-20 mph (or faster) as it is being bent to shape.

What made me change my mind? The first prototypes had no waviness to the outer panels, they looked like they were bent on a traditional industrial brake. Sometime last year we started seeing a prototype that had pretty severe waviness to the outer panels. Since then I've seen what I believe to be different prototypes that have a lesser degree of waviness (but it is still there). I believe we are seeing test prototypes of an entirely new production process that hardens the SS panels after they are cut and as they are being bent by rollers. The bends must be largely complete before it is roll hardened to a high degree. After the panels have taken their final shape, they will continue to be roll-hardened with rollers of increasing pressure. The rollers will be custom designed to roll harden the bends as well as the flats. The waviness we are seeing is the result of this process still being fine-tuned. I'm pretty confident of this analysis because I can think of no way that a traditional metal brake could introduce such waviness to 3 mm thick body panels made of roll-hardened stainless steel from a traditional supplier.

Tesla is continuing their tradition of increasing vertical integration by becoming their own metal foundry to roll-harden the Cybertruck! They can buy unhardened 3 mm thick stainless steel in huge rolls. The expense to tool for such an initiative is mind-boggling but Tesla can afford it and it demonstrates a real commitment to make the Cybertruck in huge volumes, over many years and at as low of a cost as humanly possible. It will take millions of Cybertrucks to pay off their investment in custom roll-hardening technology. This will also eventually lead to other tough, durable and futuristic vehicles (vans, hatchbacks and SUV's) using the same technologies giving them super tough exoskeletons that avoid the need for zinc dunk tanks, paintshops and paint defects, warranty rust claims, etc. all while reducing permitting requirements and improving air quality of new factories.

 

[Ogre]

Originally, shortly after the Cybertruck was revealed, I assumed it would be bent with an automated industrial brake. Given what I've seen over the last several months, I have a different take:

The SS panels will be progressively bent and progressively hardened at high speed on long lines full of hydraulic rollers. It will be surface hardened under high pressure rollers at 10-20 mph (or faster) as it is being bent to shape.

What made me change my mind? The first prototypes had no waviness to the outer panels, they looked like they were bent on a traditional industrial brake. Sometime last year we started seeing a prototype that had pretty severe waviness to the outer panels. Since then I've seen what I believe to be different prototypes that have a lesser degree of waviness (but it is still there). I believe we are seeing test prototypes of an entirely new production process that hardens the SS panels after they are cut and as they are being bent by rollers. The bends must be largely complete before it is roll hardened to a high degree. After the panels have taken their final shape, they will continue to be roll-hardened with rollers of increasing pressure. The rollers will be custom designed to roll harden the bends as well as the flats. The waviness we are seeing is the result of this process still being fine-tuned. I'm pretty confident of this analysis because I can think of no way that a traditional metal brake could introduce such waviness to 3 mm thick body panels made of roll-hardened stainless steel from a traditional supplier.

Tesla is continuing their tradition of increasing vertical integration by becoming their own metal foundry to roll-harden the Cybertruck! They can buy unhardened 3 mm thick stainless steel in huge rolls. The expense to tool for such an initiative is mind-boggling but Tesla can afford it and it demonstrates a real commitment to make the Cybertruck in huge volumes, over many years and at as low of a cost as humanly possible. It will take millions of Cybertrucks to pay off their investment in custom roll-hardening technology. This will also eventually lead to other tough, durable and futuristic vehicles (vans, hatchbacks and SUV's) using the same technologies giving them super tough exoskeletons that avoid the need for zinc dunk tanks, paintshops and paint defects, warranty rust claims, etc. all while reducing permitting requirements and improving air quality of new factories.

I’ve heard this theory elsewhere and I suspect it is correct. I strongly suspect Teslas goal is to make the Cybertruck in a continuous process.

When Musk said the Cybertruck was his Magnum Opus, I’m pretty sure he was referring to the way it’s manufactured rather than an individual truck.

 

[HaulingAss]

I’ve heard this theory elsewhere and I suspect it is correct. I strongly suspect Teslas goal is to make the Cybertruck in a continuous process.

When Musk said the Cybertruck was his Magnum Opus, I’m pretty sure he was referring to the way it’s manufactured rather than an individual truck.

Yes, I've suggested this same theory here before and on TMC. The only evidence I have to support my theory is the wavy appearance of the prototypes, I just don't see how else they could get like that.

Oh, there is also a statement from management of the new metal foundry being built in Texas that they don't have any knowledge of large orders of hardened stainless steel. Tesla would have to begin planning purchases like this over a year in advance and figure out who would be their suppliers.

 

[charliemagpie]

Even impresses a layperson like me.

The wholesale markup to produce the hardened SS is removed. The time to harden the SS is blended in with the folding.

I have a weird thought.

The CT body is to FSD like what a can is to tuna.

When we buy a can of tuna, we never think what the can costs.

Musk did say, the cost of making something is basically working out the cost of raw materials.

If this theory is true, it is heading in that direction.

 

[Dusty]

We've been on here for a looong time talking about the CT coming. The closer this all gets to delivery, especially the past 8 months, the more it feels like the CT will bring home Musk's idea that "the factory is the product".

As we pointed out before, when we start to see test castings and panels start to pile up in bins the rate at which things will progress will be NUTS. I'm starting to think that when the 4680/chip situation is resolved the CT may be a vehicle built at a rate that's unheard of.

It would be awesome if the bulk of the truck only sees human intervention at the quality control/finishing portions, with automated systems accurately constructing vehicles at break-neck speeds.

The part I'm waiting for will be images of multiple, identical, CT's in different locations being on-road/off-road tested. Then we know the time is coming.

 

[charliemagpie]

Austin car park, wall-to-wall Stainless.

Imagine the sun's reflection

 

[FutureBoy]

Even impresses a layperson like me.

The wholesale markup to produce the hardened SS is removed. The time to harden the SS is blended in with the folding.

I have a weird thought.

The CT body is to FSD like what a can is to tuna.

When we buy a can of tuna, we never think what the can costs.

Musk did say, the cost of making something is basically working out the cost of raw materials.

If this theory is true, it is heading in that direction.

For a second there I thought you were going to ask if all the features of FSD were going to fit inside the body of the CT.

Clearly I need more sleep. I even thought your analogy was a can of sardines instead of tuna.

 

[HaulingAss]

Even impresses a layperson like me.

The wholesale markup to produce the hardened SS is removed. The time to harden the SS is blended in with the folding.

I have a weird thought.

The CT body is to FSD like what a can is to tuna.

When we buy a can of tuna, we never think what the can costs.

Musk did say, the cost of making something is basically working out the cost of raw materials.

If this theory is true, it is heading in that direction.

Have you ever seen a presentation of the engineering evolution of the aluminum beverage can? It's pretty fascinating to learn what a highly optimized design the modern aluminum can is and how the optimization process happened over multiple decades. One small part of this evolution is that different areas of the can are different thicknesses to reduce the amount of aluminum to an absolute minimum. When I was a child, in the 1960's, beer and soda came in steel cans. Aluminum only started entering my consciousness in the 1970's and they were not nearly as light and efficient as they are today.

The Cybertruck with have reiterative improvements as well. Most of us will be buying version 1, at least initially. It will be relatively crude compared to the Cybertruck of 2035 which will be lighter, safer, and, the largest area of improvement, it will cost even less to build. Even the initial release of the first Cybertruck will likely feature different thicknesses of stainless steel, it won't all be exactly 3mm thick and it won't all be hardened to the same level, different areas will recieve different levels of hardening.

Some people have suggested the metal forming the door jambs will be regular painted steel because stainless cannot be stamped into complex compound curves. This is incorrect. Most 300 series stainless alloys can be easily stamped into deep and complex dies and they obtain a degree of work hardening through stamping. These 3D stampings will be welded to the cold-rolled body panels making them even stronger and more rigid in different directions so the Cybertruck chassis will retain a very high level of corrosion resistance without zinc rich primers and paint.

None of this is simple to achieve. The process of cold-rolling could be considered somewhat of a misnomer because the very act of cold-rolling under high pressure creates substantial heat in the metal being worked, up to 250C (480F). The temperatures reached in various parts of the metal affects the final properties of the material. The key to building strength with cold-rolling and cold forming is keeping the metal below the temperature of recrystallization. That is the temperature, well under the melt temperature, that the atomic structure of the metal can begin to rearrange. The metal will begin to temper (resoften) the longer and the higher the temperature. So cold-rolling involves applying cooling/lubricating liquids during the process. Changing the speed of the cold-rolling changes the temperatures and the properties of the product.

I'm also a layperson but, as an investor, I need a certain level of understanding of the processes involved to more accurately assess risk/reward of my investments. Obviously, the potential rewards of getting this right are enormous but it does involve a certain level of risk (delays, cost overruns, etc.) Tesla will not pass on any cost overruns of the production process directly to initial purchasers but will spread those costs over millions of Cybertrucks, over many years, making this kind of cost overrun of more interest to an investor than a Cybertruck buyer.

What should not be under-estimated is just what a fundamental change this is in the manufacture and design of light trucks. The product will be so superior, in so many fundamental ways, it will make traditional trucks laughably inadequate. Their expensive and soft, damage-prone exteriors and heavy, flexy frames will finally be understood to be quaint and antiquidated once people understand just how light, tough, strong, resistant to minor damage and work-capable the Cybertruck really is. Even Ford and Chevy's latest and greatest EV pickups will look dismal compared to the light, strong, rigid and damage resistant exoskeleton of the Cybertruck. Smarter farmers, fisherman, loggers, contractors and rednecks will be some of the first to understand the superiority of the Cybertruck, once they are actually exposed to it in a meaningful way.

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