For those who though that Foundation was really limited to 1000's units....here is your proof that its not....

[Arctic_White]

I think they will keep selling them until the buyers run out. Who knows how long that will be.

They are two weeks into the reservation list from 2019, and it's taken 6 months. There's still 4 years of a backlog. And, they still will have to go back to the beginning of the list again once the regular trucks are ready and offer those to people who passed. Seems like at least another 2 years to get that all done.

What I would like to know is whether the backlog is getting shorter or longer.

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[CyberPlaid]

What I would like to know is whether the backlog is getting shorter or longer.

I'd be interested in that as well. I am sure they will continue building FS's as long as people have the extra 20k to blow. I would venture to guess that mid 2025 we will see non-FS builds. I reserved on 11-24-2019 after CT was announced with an RN1129 and I received the invitation to build in March. As much as I wanted to pull the trigger, I cannot see myself paying the additional 20K plus any (hoping) tax incentive that may be there. I originally had an order in for the Beast but now that I am a proud, new owner of a Plaid S, I don't see that extra motor being an additional 20K value. I agree that these dual motor configs will end up being in the 50k-60k range in the coming years, no doubt about it.

 

[Arctic_White]

I'd be interested in that as well. I am sure they will continue building FS's as long as people have the extra 20k to blow. I would venture to guess that mid 2025 we will see non-FS builds. I reserved on 11-24-2019 after CT was announced with an RN1129 and I received the invitation to build in March. As much as I wanted to pull the trigger, I cannot see myself paying the additional 20K plus any (hoping) tax incentive that may be there. I originally had an order in for the Beast but now that I am a proud, new owner of a Plaid S, I don't see that extra motor being an additional 20K value. I agree that these dual motor configs will end up being in the 50k-60k range in the coming years, no doubt about it.

Because the Beast is only 10% of all Cybertrucks made, it will always command a premium.

Even though the cost difference is $20K b/w the Beast and Dual Motor, I would bet that you would recoup all of that when you sell.

 

[evazquezcu]

Now ..... another question will be if that 80k price will remain two years down the line

 

[Bstill]

Incredible for doing what?
Work? I don't think so.

May want to rethink that- im doing the same work stuff with CT that I did with my F150 (without scratching pretty paint) PLUS CT puts a smile on ma pretty face!

 

[kfede1]

I got my invite to the foundation series a while back. I was 225,000 in line. They are projecting an early 4th quarter delivery date. So the 1st question is how many cancellation did they get? They have mad a bit over 3,000 so far. If there where no cancellations, that would mean they expect to build over 300,000 this year. My 77,500$ truck is now $122,135, had about 1/2 the range promised and lower tow capacity. If there was a way to give away my place in line, I would probably do it, as the product has far under delivered compared to early promises.

 

[ThaDon]

I got my invite to the foundation series a while back. I was 225,000 in line. They are projecting an early 4th quarter delivery date. So the 1st question is how many cancellation did they get? They have mad a bit over 3,000 so far. If there where no cancellations, that would mean they expect to build over 300,000 this year. My 77,500$ truck is now $122,135, had about 1/2 the range promised and lower tow capacity. If there was a way to give away my place in line, I would probably do it, as the product has far under delivered compared to early promises.

Exactly what I’ve been trying to say. The utilization rate is extremely low.

 

[Its4kito]

Based upon Elon's quote on the earnings call that 2024 production is nearly booked and demand is still strong - and that the site shows "normal" trucks with delivery estimates of "2025", I believe 2024 is the year of the Foundation Series.

Invites that went out yesterday (mine included) show AWD deliveries July-Oct and CyberBeast Oct -Dec. The delivery windows are pushing back each month and invites are still going out (I am RN113086xxx - roughly 306,000 in line). As production continues to slowly ramp, I best we will see Foundation Series invites cease shortly after we see AWD delivery windows hit Nov/Dec. When they fill the production queue with Foundation Orders (plus a few for cancellations), they will probably cut things off.

Why?

1) Public company with a few billion invested - recovering funds to meet Wall Street earnings overrules any customer sentiment (reality of a capitalist society).
2) It makes sense and fits the original (and continuing) Tesla business model of starting with an expensive version before introducing a "more affordable" version.
3) A year-end cut off makes quarterly earnings and transition easier and straight forward - meaning 2025 is a "non-foundation" year.

Just my hunches.

My RN number is 120065xxx . How do I estimate when to anticipate order?

 

[beewang]

... If there was a way to give away my place in line, I would probably do it..

Just hit "Cancel Order" and that's it! Next Person Up will get your spot..

 

[pricedm]

My place in line is 223,000+ and they sent me a foundation invite, but y'know what?
I'm out.
It's not a truck it's a toy. If you have cargo in that thing and hit the pedal, it's flying all over the place.

I have come to the conclusion that it's completely useless to me.
And you know what? When it first drove onto the stage, that was my initial reaction.
"They've built something completely useless."

RN113078435

User name checks out...

 

[beewang]

I'd be interested in that as well. I am sure they will continue building FS's as long as people have the extra 20k to blow.

Yes that is correct!

I would venture to guess that mid 2025 we will see non-FS builds.

There is ABSOLUTELY no chance of that (except wishful thinking). Let me elaborate..

You can do this on your own spreadsheet. change around your assumptions and see what you come up with. But I think my numbers are pretty conservative and there is NFW non-foundation series can be available before Q1 2026 at the earliest.

I cannot see myself paying the additional 20K plus any (hoping) tax incentive that may be there.

Don't count on the Tax Incentive will be there. Yes I am an accountant (can't you tell, LOL!)
Also... It's just money dude... If that $20K really matters then hustle more and get it done!

Cheers,

beewang

 

[AlDente]

I suspect the conversion rate of Foundation Series invites - low to begin with - will continue to decline as they move through the queue. I think it's a reasonable assumption that those who reserved very early - hours, days, and then weeks from the reveal - are both more attuned and more enthusiastic about Tesla products. Those who reserved later are likely not as keen to pay the Foundation premium.

My guess is that Tesla has a conversion rate that they consider acceptable. There's something of a PR downside once buyers become too scarce and the invites begin quickly galloping over great swathes of the queue searching for buyers.

That acceptable conversion rate is also affected by the production ramp. Unlike traditional car dealers, with their widespread dealer network, Tesla doesn't have the ability to store great quantities of unsold vehicles. Tesla needs a buyer as the vehicle is being built. So as the CT production ramp continues to accelerate, that will put additional pressure on maintaining an acceptable conversion rate.

The conversion rate on the regular CT's will be notably higher than on the Foundation Series. Tesla knows that... and will transition to regular production when they hit, or as they approach, whatever minimum Foundation Series conversion rate they consider acceptable.

It will be much earlier than 2026.

Congrats on the invite! I'm just a few weeks behind you (early January 2020, RN 11321...) and might very well see an invite soon. Alas, I shall pass and wait for a regular AWD.

I'm a shareholder with a 12/03/2019 reservation and received the email yesterday. While I understand the business reasons for Tesla creating the Foundation Series, I'm just not that into it. I just bought a 2018 Model X that I'm very happy with and when/if the non-FS Dual Motor or even a long range single motor Cybertruck comes along I might be interested.

It's funny that when I was young (-30), I bought no new vehicles and then I went through a phase of only new cars every 3-4 years. Now that I'm old, I see the wisdom in purchasing used again.

 

[Nolacyber]

My place in line is 223,000+ and they sent me a foundation invite, but y'know what?
I'm out.
It's not a truck it's a toy. If you have cargo in that thing and hit the pedal, it's flying all over the place.

I have come to the conclusion that it's completely useless to me.
And you know what? When it first drove onto the stage, that was my initial reaction.
"They've built something completely useless."

RN113078435

And yet those of us who bought it as a truck use it as a truck and are satisfied. The rails are excellent for securing loads and nets; haven’t had any issues with transporting tools, plywood, Sheetrock etc.
you obviously made up your mind but your ostensible reason for rejecting doesn’t ring true.

 

[Tinker71]

I believe they will give chance to each and every reservation holder to buy foundation series, once done then they will revise price and start all over again.

I think you are right. Then Tesla will scrap the entire reservation system, return deposits, and take full deposits for orders on a first come first serve based on the advertised price at the time. Then and only then will they start adjusting the price based on demand. We know how Tesla operates now and nothing should really surprise us. Expect ruthless maximization of pricing and profitability.

 

[Tinker71]

Everyone will probably differ on its utility. I have had mine for a month now and am doing a large scale home remodel, so I have used mine to tow, haul dirt, rock, lumber and various materials. It does great. The bed design has pluses and minuses. The front of the bed is too tall to reach into, so that is a minus, but the secure cover design allows you to have a safe storage in your bed but also allows you to open it easily to carry tall items. This is much more difficult to do with traditional truck bed designs, covers and caps. The bed also is too slick, but easily adjusted with an aftermarket mat, which is what I did. I would prefer it came less slick, but all well. Towing 3K lbs I lose about 30% range, so for me that is more than acceptable. I could see someone pulling heavy loads daily who doesn't have the ability to charge at home finding it more inconvenient, but if you can charge at home most people will likely find the trucks range adequate. It is an incredibly capable machine, a blast to drive and really quite comfortable as well. Not to mention, when my daughter dropped her bike against it on day one of owning it I didn't have to worry about dents or scratches in my new truck!

Most truck sidewalls are too tall to access directly. I am 6'-1" and still they are too tall without leaning against them. Fashion over function in most cases if you ask me.

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