FS is closed, prove me wrong

[evnow]

That is an if/then statement of logic, and it implies Troy can see the future. And you followed that up citing your belief in the accuracy of his previous predictions.

I'm glad you have come around and now admit that even Tesla doesn't know how many they will make this year,

LOL - I think I know what an if/then statement is - been writing code for 3 decades.

I'm sure you know the meaning of estimate. If not, check a dictionary.

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[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

Yes. I can still configure a FS but I’m waiting for non-FS orders to open and may sit back a bit even then depending on what the ordering options are and if it looks like a battery chemistry change is imminent at the time of my potential order. Trying to be patient but (not so) secretly I want my CB and check for a regular production order each day first thing when i wake up. So far that FS configuration page is there every day.

FWIW

Cheers

Teala is extracting every juice in FS.

Hint of stopping is when they announce expiry of your invite.

Or when they put deadlines to order on new invites.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

LOL - I think I know what an if/then statement is - been writing code for 3 decades.

I'm sure you know the meaning of estimate. If not, check a dictionary.

Come on with the ‘my dick is bigger than yours’ crap. Who has written more rules or longer, really?

It is probably true that Tesla hasn’t decided how many FS CTs it is going to make/sell. Switching to non-FS CT production is not a big deal but for selling it is so they are better off selling FS as long as there is demand. As far as statistical predictions are concerned, look at how well political pollsters do. You can be certain that they are more experienced and better funded, and yet their results are poor. Look at people who have predictive models of the stock market and how well they fare. If these models were truly good these people would rule the universe. So we might as well accept that their predictions are informed guesses but guesses just the same.

 

[SparkChaser]

Come on with the ‘my dick is bigger than yours’ crap. Who has written more rules or longer, really?

It is probably true that Tesla hasn’t decided how many FS CTs it is going to make/sell. Switching to non-FS CT production is not a big deal but for selling it is so they are better off selling FS as long as there is demand. As far as statistical predictions are concerned, look at how well political pollsters do. You can be certain that they are more experienced and better funded, and yet their results are poor. Look at people who have predictive models of the stock market and how well they fare. If these models were truly good these people would rule the universe. So we might as well accept that their predictions are informed guesses but guesses just the same.

So if demand means not getting to the orders place in 2019 for another 2 years, that seems pretty outrageous.
If faced with waiting 5 years to get a truck from the current list, due to the 2 million orders or paying the extra $20000, it seems like there is a lot of demand. Look at all the posts here about waiting for the chance to order a FS CT. I get it, but it sure is making me sour on Tesla and the way that are choosing to deliver this truck. Those of us that have been here all this time deserve better than adding years to the start of manufacturing of the truck promised almost 5 years ago now.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

So if demand means not getting to the orders place in 2019 for another 2 years, that seems pretty outrageous.
If faced with waiting 5 years to get a truck from the current list, due to the 2 million orders or paying the extra $20000, it seems like there is a lot of demand. Look at all the posts here about waiting for the chance to order a FS CT. I get it, but it sure is making me sour on Tesla and the way that are choosing to deliver this truck. Those of us that have been here all this time deserve better than adding years to the start of manufacturing of the truck promised almost 5 years ago now.

I cannot argue with that sentiment. I am waiting too, and am not particularly patient, but what choice do I (or any of us) have? All I said was that we are better off being offered the option for an FS than waiting for who knows how long for a non-FS. For me the time is worth more than the money and I am lucky to have been saving up for this purchase for almost 7 years. Yes, I am tired of waiting. Yes, the price is way more than I/we were promised. Yes, I wanted a 500-mile range and won’t get it. I will order an FS if invited because there sure won’t be a competitive truck in my mind any time soon. The Rivian and Lightning are close, and the fabled Silverado RST would be a functional match, but on the whole there really is no competition. You can be frustrated, upset, and even angry but in the end you wait or you cut and run. We are on the same side here, if there even ‘are’ sides.

 

[Gigahorse]

Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations were ever being sent out in a linear fashion?

Because this is what I see (from Invites tracker thread):

Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.

Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 invitees submit in thread above) and we get:

(as of 2/14)

Meanwhile, ~33-unit daily production rate also seems to match what 66 days seems to have produced so far, roughly 2200 units. So hopefully yesterday's 70 was an attempt at a double.

So 3 weeks later and Foundation Invites continue to roll out.
People now getting them in the 1129s and so far seems like no sign of stopping.
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-wait-for-ordering-is-over.13114/#post-259161

2024 may be the year of the Foundation Series, and at the current rate maybe 2025

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

So 3 weeks later and Foundation Invites continue to roll out.
People now getting them in the 1129s and so far seems like no sign of stopping.
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-wait-for-ordering-is-over.13114/#post-259161

2024 may be the year of the Foundation Series, and at the current rate maybe 2025

I do not even see where he is getting his numbers. I have been tracking orders (no one can track invitations so either he doesn't know the difference or is making it up - both being questionable) for a few weeks and there are generally around 20 orders for invites of the current week, whatever that week happens to be, and there have been 1, 2, or 3 (like this past week with 11290, 11291, qnd 11292 RN numbers) numbers each week. So Tesla is definitely marching through the RNs slowly. When they dropped to 1 number two weeks ago (11288, then 11289) I worried that it would take months to get to mine, or maybe they would stop, but as we all know they did 3 this week, so as per always we just don't know. What we do know is that each number represents 10,000 reservations. We do not know how many of those they send invitations to, and we do not know how many reservation holders watch this forum. They may continue, they may not.

 

[MeadowShade]

I didn't say orders were closed, I said invitations were dying off at a rate commensurate with attrition. FS production is capped.

FS offers will continue until they hit a stride where they can make money at the production rate at that time.

The FS offer is NOTHING more than a way to deal with 2M reservations and to get the early adopters to help with cash flow needed for the ramp. By the time the ramp is rolling, FS will go away and the volume will go up and they will be making money on EVERY truck. Unlike Ford who is losing $38k on each EV.

 

[tmeyer3]

FS ordered 3/31. Not closed.

 

[FutureTruck]

Invites going out as of this morning still.

 

[MeadowShade]

So Tesla has 2 million CT's sold. Rivian just made their 100,000th vehicle. HMMMM

 

[Woodrick]

So Tesla has 2 million CT's sold. Rivian just made their 100,000th vehicle. HMMMM

I didn't compare the Rivian number to the Cybertruck, I compared it to the Model Y, a month of vehicles..

 

[MeadowShade]

No. I got that. What o am saying is Giga is making a lot more Y’s than CT’s so why the backlog pileup at the factory?

 

[Crissa]

No. I got that. What o am saying is Giga is making a lot more Y’s than CT’s so why the backlog pileup at the factory?

That's a different thread.

So something is wrong in Austin ... CyberTruck backlog

-Crissa

 

[docowen]

Invites going out as of this morning still.

11307 would be the highest number we have seen for "normal people". Current highest in the tracker is 11302. If you are indeed a normal and non long term stock holder that means we have gone through 11302-11307 in 5 days. Getting so close for my 11311.

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