Coolbreeze704

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WHERE DID YOU GET A PICTURE OF MY COUSIN TRAVIS!?!?! He's got that warrant thing, you know...
Met at a mud rally down in Slap Out, Alabama.

Don't remember much on account of too many of them there Busch Lights.
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S.H.Peterson

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Slapout... AKA Holtvillle.. I love weird town names. We havea LOT of them here.
Booger tree
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SmutEye

But yeah... Travis aint gonna be happy about that.
 

Trbizwiz

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I will take that bet.

My WAG (wild ass guess) is about 5000-10,000 units in 2023, and about 125,000-150,000 in 2024.

2026? 400-500,000 delivered Cybertrucks (in the US) would be a huge success, IMO.
Those figures follow the Model 3 roll out pretty closely, first year estimates are double to quadruple model 3, but after that its pretty close. Model 3 was notoriously hard to build, and Cybertruck should be easier, but it seems like they are having an awful time with the battery cells, and batteries are fairly important. I am not sure that being a little further down the list is totally a bad thing, as the batteries should get better each year, for the first 2 or 3 years. I went ahead and ordered two trucks. One in 2020, and another a few months ago. I think after these things come out the orders will explode. I'll probably have my first trucks for 3 years, before the second one is available. So I wont have to wait around to get the updated version. I doubt it will be too hard to sell the first one, or hopefully put it in FSD fleet work. I ordered the FSD with my reservation, so I should hopefully be locked at the 2020 FSD price, hopefully, maybe.
I think I'll order a third one when my first one gets delivered. That should arrive about 3 years after my second one, and be even more upgrades.
 

intimidator

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Those figures follow the Model 3 roll out pretty closely, first year estimates are double to quadruple model 3, but after that its pretty close. Model 3 was notoriously hard to build, and Cybertruck should be easier, but it seems like they are having an awful time with the battery cells, and batteries are fairly important. I am not sure that being a little further down the list is totally a bad thing, as the batteries should get better each year, for the first 2 or 3 years. I went ahead and ordered two trucks. One in 2020, and another a few months ago. I think after these things come out the orders will explode. I'll probably have my first trucks for 3 years, before the second one is available. So I wont have to wait around to get the updated version. I doubt it will be too hard to sell the first one, or hopefully put it in FSD fleet work. I ordered the FSD with my reservation, so I should hopefully be locked at the 2020 FSD price, hopefully, maybe.
I think I'll order a third one when my first one gets delivered. That should arrive about 3 years after my second one, and be even more upgrades.
I think it is clear the 4680 battery ramp is giving them fits. I am sure they, and most Tesla fanboys, thought we would be much further along with the 4680 battery production.

Whether they will be ready to produce enough 4680 batteries in 2024 to meet their planned production amount of CyberTrucks remains to be seen.

I am sure we all believe they will solve the current speed bumps of manufacturing the 4680s, but when, is still up in the air.

In the meantime, Sandy Munro just did a video on Amprius Battery Company (across the street from Keto Road) and their battery density and speed of charging is a step function forward compared to Tesla batteries. I think this type of competition is good for the industry.
 

Trbizwiz

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I think it is clear the 4680 battery ramp is giving them fits. I am sure they, and most Tesla fanboys, thought we would be much further along with the 4680 battery production.

Whether they will be ready to produce enough 4680 batteries in 2024 to meet their planned production amount of CyberTrucks remains to be seen.

I am sure we all believe they will solve the current speed bumps of manufacturing the 4680s, but when, is still up in the air.

In the meantime, Sandy Munro just did a video on Amprius Battery Company (across the street from Keto Road) and their battery density and speed of charging is a step function forward compared to Tesla batteries. I think we will continue to see the evolution of battery tech, albeit always slower than we hope.
I assume the new Cathode factory on the Giga Austin site will play a role in successfully ramping 4680's. But they way they are backyard engineering them right now seems to be a real struggle. It seems like the real limiting factor is dry battery electrode adhesion, and I listened to a few youtubers talk about the engineering challenges with that style of battery, and how the materials used for adhesion can cause the battery to fail prematurely. It will be interesting to see how they solve all of this. I think there is a reason why the 4680 model Y is not DBE, and why it is much lower energy density than promised on battery day. I have no doubt they will solve it all. But with Tesla, “we specialize in making the impossible merely late” --- Elon Musk
 


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greggertruck

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I will take that bet.

My WAG (wild ass guess) is about 5000-10,000 units in 2023, and about 125,000-150,000 in 2024.

2026? 400-500,000 delivered Cybertrucks (in the US) would be a huge success, IMO.
I agree except for this year. I think 1K is a good sign. They're gonna be careful with this truck I'd bet. We are still relying on the cathode expansions and lithium project, that breaks ground today.

Looking forward to it though dude 🍻
 

intimidator

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I agree except for this year. I think 1K is a good sign. They're gonna be careful with this truck I'd bet. We are still relying on the cathode expansions and lithium project, that breaks ground today.

Looking forward to it though dude 🍻
In the meantime, while I wait for my Tri-Motor or whatever they produce, I am driving a Ford Lightning and really really enjoy it.

If the Cybertruck is better than the Lightning, the demand will be off the charts (while, depending on price). The ride of the Lightning, with independent suspension, is so slow, quiet, and comfortable. Add in Tesla's fantastic charging network, and great User Interface, and trucks will be even a bigger seller than they have been for the last 10 years.
 
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greggertruck

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In the meantime, while I wait for my Tri-Motor or whatever they produce, I am driving a Ford Lightning and really really enjoy it.

If the Cybertruck is better than the Lightning, the demand will be off the charts (while, depending on price). The ride of the Lightning, with independent suspension, is so slow, quiet, and comfortable. Add in Tesla's fantastic charging network, and great User Interface, and trucks will be even a bigger seller than they have been for the last 10 years.
You make wonderful points on all accounts. I drove my FIL Lightning Platinum, it was completely lovely. Almost so that I started making offers on trucks. I am going to hold off though, with the timeline seeming to firm up for Cybertruck specs/ pricing/ info.

That'll do a lot to the truck market, maybe the overall vehicle market.

I don't think anyone with more than 2 brain cells can argue the Cybertruck is the most awaited vehicle, probably ever.

Jealous you already have your truck, hope you are enjoying it despite whatever Tesla does.
 

TechOps

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I will take that bet.

My WAG (wild ass guess) is about 5000-10,000 units in 2023, and about 125,000-150,000 in 2024.

2026? 400-500,000 delivered Cybertrucks (in the US) would be a huge success, IMO.
I'd be surprised if they can sustain anything above 200k in sales in the long term, due to demand issues around the styling. Hope I'm wrong.
 

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I'd be surprised if they can sustain anything above 200k in sales in the long term, due to demand issues around the styling. Hope I'm wrong.
In peak years Ford has sold 1 million F150s.

And you are totally right about the styling. We don't know if the inital delight of getting a Cybertruck wears off since every single one will be the same color! LOL

People's taste varies widely.
 


SentinelOne

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I had an 86 F250 turbo diesel. I replaced the glow plugs, other than that it was a dependable truck. And man’s truck it was - rode best with about 1000 pounds of stuff in the bed. When it came time to pass, the cloud of black smoke that came out was embarrassing but it did in fact move along and made noises Tim Taylor would have been proud of. Without the turbo, full throttle was a movement of your foot but not much really happened after that.
…and there was this strange phenomenon I learned was common to that model - transmitting on a CB would create a full throttle situation as long as you were transmitting.
so what manly thing will happen with the cybertruck when you go to full throttle - no black smoke, no rattling of the horses like down a cobble stone road, just head back thrust - and objects in the mirror becoming indiscernible
I still have a diesel truck (stock, not modded), and a Tesla M3P and waiting for my CT...my point wasn't that I think diesels are better or manlier, it's that they aren't slow (if modded or not 30+ years old) as previously stated - even vs. the Tri CT at 2.9s. i'm selling my current truck to my son in law when my CT arrives (making sure I still have access to it for long rang towing)...

As far as manly, well, electric hauls ass and is fun...I do sorta miss the soundtrack when in an EV but it's a worthy compromise - still have my gas bikes for sound (until range is more usable for my use cases then I'll go EV)
 

cvalue13

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In peak years Ford has sold 1 million F150s.
People (and media outlets) often mis-cite this statistic, confusing F150's for F-series.

Ford has never sold 1M F-150's in a year. It's sold, in peak years, that many F-series medium-duty trucks, including the F-150, F-250, F-350 and F-450. (The heavy truck 650 and 750s are not included in those stats.) And, these figures include both retail and fleet.

You'd be surprised how many of those sales are (A) 250s-450s, and (B) fleet sales (often based on the 250-450 platforms).

Good luck finding an official break-out from ford as to how many F-150 retail sales were made in the U.S. and Canada.

Whatever fraction the F-150 represents of the total F-series numbers, among the F-150's there are 9 trim levels, most of those trim levels available with multiple body styles, bed lengths, powertrains, 4x2 vs 4x4, cab-only, and any number of configurations expanding the marketability and TAM. And, generally 10-15% of those sales are outside the U.S. and Canada, in the additional 12+ markets the F-series are sold (retail or fleet).

Maybe more telling, with those 9 trim levels ranging from $34,000-$85,000 base MSRP, in the highest selling year (2018), the average F-series transaction price in the U.S. was $46,700.

On one hand, this cost data goes to show what several around here are driving at when they say the CT needs a low-cost entry model to remotely compete with the annual volume of traditionals.

On the other hand, even with a low-cost entry model, basing estimates of CT annual production in the U.S. against F-series volumes globally is... off base.
 

intimidator

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People (and media outlets) often mis-cite this statistic, confusing F150's for F-series.

Ford has never sold 1M F-150's in a year. It's sold, in peak years, that many F-series medium-duty trucks, including the F-150, F-250, F-350 and F-450. (The heavy truck 650 and 750s are not included in those stats.) And, these figures include both retail and fleet.

You'd be surprised how many of those sales are (A) 250s-450s, and (B) fleet sales (often based on the 250-450 platforms).

Whatever fraction the F-150 represents of the total F-series numbers, among the F-150's there are 9 trim levels, most of those trim levels available with multiple body styles, bed lengths, powertrains, 4x2 vs 4x4, cab-only, and any number of configurations expanding the marketability and TAM. And, generally 10-15% of those sales are outside the U.S. and Canada, in the additional 12+ markets the F-series are sold (retail or fleet).

Maybe more telling, with those 9 trim levels ranging from $34,000-$85,000 base MSRP, in the highest selling year (2018), the average F-series transaction price in the U.S. was $46,700.

On one hand, this cost data goes to show what several around here are driving at when they say the CT needs a low-cost entry model to remotely compete with the annual volume of traditionals.

On the other hand, even with a low-cost entry model, basing estimates of CT annual production in the U.S. against F-series volumes globally is... off base.
I did find this......Ford sold 896,526 F150s in 2019.

So, yes you are right, not a million.

Of course that segment has the Ram, the various GMC and Chevy pickups, as well as the Nissan and Toyota variants. Oh, and the Honda Ridgeline.

And no one can predict who many CTs Tesla will sell.

Do you know Worldwide in 2022, Tesla sold 482,000 Model 3s. Which was 3% lower than 2021? So there is a ceiling for every model, and every manufacturer, at some point. The reality is eventually tastes change. How many Stainless Steel "colored" Cybertrucks will sell, before some buyers get tired of the look.
 

cvalue13

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I did find this......Ford sold 896,526 F150s in 2019.

So, yes you are right, not a million.
you're missing the important bit: " People (and media outlets) often mis-cite this statistic, confusing F150's for F-series. "

you're googling with too little critical reading

again, good luck finding Ford breaking out F-150 sales from F-series sales, but it's easy work to find people and media outlets not understanding the difference
 

cvalue13

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Of course that segment has the Ram, the various GMC and Chevy pickups, as well as the Nissan and Toyota variants. Oh, and the Honda Ridgeline.
should add, those other manufacturers you cite also include their various medium duty lines, such as the 2500/3500/4500. Nissin sold like 10,000 of the Titans last year, while Toyota sold less than 100,000 of its full-size truck. Mm

I’ve seen estimates that the half ton varieties of these manufacturers may account for not much more than half of their total vehicle sold in a year, with a significant portion of that half being in fleet. Another significant portion is in a sub $45,000 price point, as much as 3/4 of those.

So it would be wrongheaded to confuse that entire market with the cyber trucks addressable market. And even more off base if in the first year or two Tesla doesn’t offer a sub $45,000 variant, or appeal to a significant portion of fleet for half ton.

I’m not saying Tesla can’t sell a bunch, I’m only saying that people don’t have their facts right if they confuse the entire half ton, three-quarter ton, fleet, and low end, model range in terms of price, with the total available market to the cyber truck.
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