Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[John Bourke]

My guess is that sales will mimic the new Corvette in that many VERY wealthy will pay large premiums to get the truck, while some buyers will be willing to sell their truck (after a month or so) and cop $20,000 or $25,000 and then get back in line and buy another !

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[Ogre]

More inane text.

Literally zero point writing this nonsense I don’t read your BS because you don’t bother… writing anything with meat. Every one of your posts is like a sandwich where it’s all bread and lettuce with nothing inside.

Then you toss in random insults and condescension as if I am too stupid to admire the beauty of the nothing sandwich you’ve made.

I’ve said it before. I’m done reading your words. Put up or shut up.

 

[Ogre]

… 250k. … 250k … That recent survey said 34% of the US pickup truck market want an electric pickup truck. That’s just over 670k vehicles. ….

Wow… you do know how to use numbers! Congratulations! Now can you apply them in a way that makes sense to your “Stuff rich people in the front of the queue” theory? Like how many will it take?

Or are we back to “Some”?

Yes, there is a huge backlog of demand. There has been for 3 years now. Yet Tesla left their prices online for 2 years with those prices and only pulled then when raw materials and shipping prices rose to insane levels.

Raw materials and shipping pricing is resetting, there is also a huge government subsidy on batteries produced in the US. Enough so Tesla’s costs are likely lower than prior to launch day.

Tesla set their prices where they did with every intention of crushing the truck industry and shipping millions of trucks. I’m not sure why people think that narrative has changed. Look at the truck they‘ve produced. Almost every feature on it is for a purpose. It is as basic as the Model Y, it’s not a “Luxury” truck, it’s a get stuff done truck. People looking for $100k+ vehicles are going to be greatly disappointed by it. We’ve already seen threads where expectations are creeping up due to this pricing nonsense floating around.





This didn’t sneak up on Tesla. They’ve seen huge demand from day 1. They could have turned off orders. Or turned off pricing in 2020 when it was clear they had more than a year’s backlog.

You are assuming Tesla didn’t do their homework when they set prices and left them online. I am assuming they did.

 

[Ogre]

Ford and Rivian have both somehow managed to survive launching their trucks with multi-year backlogs and launch day pricing. Granted Ford had the usual Stealership issues, but many **including some here on this site** were able to get Fords for launch pricing. For Rivian, 100% of current owners paid launch pricing.

This is **in spite of significant scalping of both**. Now we’re a little more than a year in and the used market is healthy and fairly normal with used prices a 5-20% under new just like every other vehicle. Zero reason to assume it will be otherwise with the Cybertruck which will have production 10x the other companies by end of the first year.

People will flip. We’ll survive.

 

[Gurule92]

I'll be scalping my BAW

 

[Deleted member 3316]

This is wrong.

Nothing you’ve written here addresses how this is wrong.

There is zero chance it will take Tesla 6 years to fill that demand.

Does that mean it might take 3-5 years then?

but Tesla will only deliver one to each potential scalper before they sell me mine.

So it’s just your own delivery you’re concerned about rather than the system as a whole, got it.

Yes, scalping happens, no it won't be a high-volume thing and no, it will not cause Tesla to raise prices, that's what the reservation system and Tesla's policy of not selling multiple vehicles to the same party is designed to do,

It depends on the price Tesla sets as to the incentive to scalp the orders, which is exactly the point I’ve been making. Tesla will sell multiple vehicles to the same party but cancel subsequent orders to that person after they’ve been scalped that is a reactive solution that does not function with the massive reservation list.

The price of Cybertruck will be the same, regardless of lots of scalpers or few scalpers.

This is nonsensical. The rate of scalping is set by the price.

There will actually be a very limited number of Cybertrucks available from scalpers

Do you know what price Cybertruck is going to sell for? What is the differential to market value?

I am even less concerned about early reservationists scalping their Cybertruck reservation than Tesla is

Please tell us what price Tesla will set, because this is what controls the rate of scalping using the current system.

It only took one year. After that point, wait times were based on new reservations building up

Past results do not indicate future returns….
Reasoning by analogy will only get you so far. The demand for Cybertruck is unprecedented…

Cybertruck might take two years to burn through the standing reservations at the start of prodction, not six. If you want a Cybertruck, and don't want to pay scalper prices, get in line now

What is the production rate going to be for the first two years then, this year - 1000-20,000 Anyone that wants one this year will buy it from a scalper if they don’t have a reservation.
Next year? 250k - scalper
2025 500k - scalper
2026 750k - still scalper…. This is a best case scenario. Production ramps are difficult.

What price is Tesla going to set it at to disincentive scalping in the first two years? High! Significantly higher than reveal price. Especially if the only mechanism to disincentive it is price and the threat of cutting them off.
Why would a scalper care about being cut off? They’ve completed the transactions available to them until the reservation list is burned through!

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Ford and Rivian have both somehow managed to survive launching their trucks with multi-year backlogs and launch day pricing. Granted Ford had the usual Stealership issues, but many **including some here on this site** were able to get Fords for launch pricing. For Rivian, 100% of current owners paid launch pricing.

This is **in spite of significant scalping of both**. Now we’re a little more than a year in and the used market is healthy and fairly normal with used prices a 5-20% under new just like every other vehicle. Zero reason to assume it will be otherwise with the Cybertruck which will have production 10x the other companies by end of the first year.

People will flip. We’ll survive.

Yep sure, the F-150 and R1T are just as compelling as the Cybertruck, same level of interest… there really nothing in it…(/S)

Scalping is unlikely to be a huge issue for Tesla because they will set the initial price high…. This is the point I’ve been making this whole time.

The current market strategy is a Dutch auction approach, set the prices as high as the market will accept and gradually bring it down as demand is satiated.

I’m guessing you’re an early reservation holder, are you happy to pay the elevated price so that scalping won’t be such an issue?

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Literally zero point writing this nonsense I don’t read your BS because you don’t bother… writing anything with meat. Every one of your posts is like a sandwich where it’s all bread and lettuce with nothing inside.

Then you toss in random insults and condescension as if I am too stupid to admire the beauty of the nothing sandwich you’ve made.

I’ve said it before. I’m done reading your words. Put up or shut up.

It’s quite clear you don’t read it.
Are you happy to pay the elevated price so that scalping won’t be such an issue?

 

[Mini2nut]

I'll be scalping my BAW

BAT and C&B's auction sites will be parading Cybertruck's auctions once retail deliveries begin.

Currently the Rivian R1T and Ford BRaptor are the top two most common new car "flips"on these sites.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Stuff rich people in the front of the queue” theory?

I’m not going to spoon feed you anymore, if you don’t understand how this statement is wrong there’s little value in holding your hand through it. Especially if you’re not going to read the response anyway.

Yes, there is a huge backlog of demand. There has been for 3 years now. Yet Tesla left their prices online for 2 years with those prices and only pulled then when raw materials and shipping prices rose to insane levels.

Do you think the cybertruck webpages were a high priority over the last 3 years?

What are you arguing against?
Do you actually know what your objection is?

You’re confused about the aim of changing the market strategy and just ranting “That looks different. I don’t understand it, so it must be wrong”

If you actually want to continue this discussion instead of shitposting your confusion, ask a genuine question.
If you can’t manage that, why don’t you give a genuine articulation in a single statement what I’m suggesting? Do you think I’ll disagree with what you write? Are you sure you understand what I’m suggesting?

 

[Deleted member 3316]

That makes sense to me.

It makes me understand how Michael Burry felt in 2007… it’s staring people in the face and still a majority of people say, nah that’s never happened before, that doesn’t fit into my mental model.

There’s two options currently high retail prices for all reservation holders or a high level of scalping… I’d prefer to not pay a premium for being an early reservation holder, but also want Tesla to benefit from the unprecedented demand available from those late in the queue or not in the queue at all.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

You are assuming Tesla didn’t do their homework when they set prices and left them online. I am assuming they did.

Why did they remove them? When the set those prices they were genuinely concerned to design would be too polarising…

 

[Deleted member 3316]

BAT and C&B's auction sites will be parading Cybertruck's auctions once retail deliveries begin.

Currently the Rivian R1T and Ford BRaptor are the top two most common new car "flips"on these sites.

I wonder what the flip rate is against production volume.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Clearly the validity of the impetus is debatable, but what if I’m right. What are this risks of the market strategy being suggested.

Can anyone interact with that question?

 

[Ogre]

Why did they remove them? When the set those prices they were genuinely concerned to design would be too polarising…

You quoted the reason in your above post.

Here’s a refesher:

Yet Tesla left their prices online for 2 years with those prices and only pulled then when raw materials and shipping prices rose to insane levels.

What is the production rate going to be for the first two years then, this year - 1000-20,000 Anyone that wants one this year will buy it from a scalper if they don’t have a reservation.
Next year? 250k - scalper
2025 500k - scalper
2026 750k - still scalper…. This is a best case scenario. Production ramps are difficult.

Starting to see why you avoid numbers.

This is entirely unrealistic. After a year, there will be a healthy used market for the truck. That’s not “Scalpers”, that’s people who own a Cybertruck but can’t afford it, or who lost their job, or just can’t park it.

In any case. If there will be scalpers after 250,000 trucks are sold, inserting a bunch of rich people with wads of cash in front of me will make even less difference.

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