Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[anionic1]

Another excellent post by you!

Don't be shocked when Tesla brings out the Cybertruck for $40K with 300 mile range. It may not happen right away but it definitely will.

I've done quite a bit of thinking around this and I expect the Cybertruck to sell over 1M units per year, once the production is fully ramped up. And the only way they do that is by making a very compelling EV truck for $40K.

Remember: the competition isn't other EVs, it's ICE trucks. And the competition isn't coming for Tesla, but rather Tesla is coming for the competition.

In the US, pickups are the # 1 selling type of vehicle. Same with Canada. How large is the pickup market in North America? Maybe 3M units per year? I can easily see Tesla gaining 33% market share. Thats 1M units / year.

Any guesses on when Tesla hits that mark? I say by 2029.

They will need 6 more gigapresses to hit a 1M production units per year. It will take Idra a few years to produce those.

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[Deleted member 3316]

Good point

unobtanium is the constraint factor. For 2 to 3 years for sure.

Lower running/maintenance costs will be of value making up some difference, it will be interesting to see how loyal ICE buyers value that.

Imagine if the CT remains head and shoulders ahead of their EV competitors, and wins over the hearts and minds of traditional truck buyers.

I can't see unobtanium lasting past 2026. And the numbers are big lol

What do you think the production rate will be at end 2026?

That’s still a long climb through the valley of dispair for non reservation holders to get to the unobtainium.

 

[charliemagpie]

I think Tesla would be planning to scale it to at least 500,000 for now.

The production rate in 2026 will be whatever the market dictates

2026 is 3 years away. By then they could build what they need where they need.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I think Tesla would be planning to scale it to at least 500,000 for now.

The production rate in 2026 will be whatever the market dictates

2026 is 3 years away. By then they could build what they need where they need.

Mid ‘24 250k run rate with probs 50k sold YoY.
so mid ‘25 maybe 350k sold.
mid’26 totaling 500-750k sold
Mid ‘27 1 million sold?
Reservation list will likely be over 1 million still.
It’s going to be unobtainium well into 2028.

 

[charliemagpie]

No. Dont agree

Just multiply 500,000 X $20,000 profit. And tell me if you still think they will leave so many trucks behind.

In fact I just roughly whipped it up .. I dont think shareholders would be happy

units	500,000​
profit per unit	$ 20,000
total ptofit	$ 10,000,000,000
Shares	3,450,000,000
PE ratio	X 50
Share price	$ 145

 

[Deleted member 3316]

What do you mean by

they will leave so many trucks behind.

What are you disagreeing with?

 

[charliemagpie]

I think the general belief is the ramp will sort of follow previous ramps we have seen with the Y.

The ramp speed is what I disagree with.

I think we will reach 5000 per week by March 24. And 10,000 by end of 24.

'they will leave so many trucks behind', With so many backorder, means the profit is there for the taking, and will justify the spend to get the ramp up asap.

Possibly a second 9Ton Press is on its way, and I reckon there will be a 3rd as well.

A multi-billion dollar SS facility is under construction. I reckon it will not remain idle for an extended period.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I think the general belief is the ramp will sort of follow previous ramps we have seen with the Y.

The ramp speed is what I disagree with.

I think we will reach 5000 per week by March 24. And 10,000 by end of 24.

'they will leave so many trucks behind', With so many backorder, means the profit is there for the taking, and will justify the spend to get the ramp up asap.

Possibly a second 9Ton Press is on its way, and I reckon there will be a 3rd as well.

A multi-billion dollar SS facility is under construction. I reckon it will not remain idle for an extended period.

5000 per week is about 250k per year… I think we’re around the same numbers. Remember you need to wait a year to realise the weekly run rate.

I’m hoping they can ramp quicker but those estimates are an attempt to model out Model Y production.

Also I think Monterrey and Shanghai will also be producing CyberTruck.

 

[Crissa]

I hope the only limiting factor is the stainless steel ^-^

-Crissa

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I hope the only limiting factor is the stainless steel ^-^

-Crissa

We’re all hoping for reveal pricing too, but don’t you think batteries would cause more of a challenge?

 

[hridge2020]

Just a curious it’s factor. If we paid a deposit in 2019 to reserve a vehicle at a certain price. We have been exceptionally patient for the past 4 years. I would think that they should be obligated to come within 10% of the original promoted price. Anyone purchasing one that did not pay the deposit would pay whatever they choose to sell it for. It’s an awesome way to finance the facilities needed by collecting 250,000 deposits of $150 a mere 37,500,000 interest free loan for 4 years time. Collectively we have been an invaluable asset and therefore should be locked into the 2019 pricing?

Like similar to this company?

EV Truck

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Like similar to this company?

EV Truck

Which is why Elon prepped everyone months ago… the price is going to be higher than reveal.

People are going to complain, there will be thousands of cancellations, there will be incessant articles about how Tesla is alienating its fan base and Tesla is now going to fail because the competition is coming….. and Tesla will still sell every single one it can produce at the market clearing price with industry leading margins.

The only way Tesla will sell lower than a market clearing price is if they implement a different market strategy similar to what GM is doing with the Silverado WT.

 

[Crissa]

We’re all hoping for reveal pricing too, but don’t you think batteries would cause more of a challenge?

What I think and what I hope shouldn't have bearing upon one another.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

@***** you on Facebook?

 

[Crissa]

If Elon had said, 'hey, we met out first year's worth of reservations in twenty-four hours, we're going to auction off the first thousand or so...' we'd have had years to digest crazy prices and blame them on bidders,

But we stood in line for three years. We're in as much a queue as we can, and line-jumpers - when there's a million reservations - are going to be more glaring.

-Crissa

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