How many CTs will be purchased and delivered to the public in 2023?

[Ogre]

Why there is no “Less than 0” Option?
I am personally thinking Tesla will delay CT to Q1 2024. So no deliveries in 2023.
I’ve heard enough from 2019 that production will start 2021, then 2022, then mid 2023, then late 2023….

At the earnings call 10 days ago Tesla management said middle of 2023 was still on track.

Rumors from “2 people who know” said mass production by year end have been reported by some rag.

The two facts don’t even contradict each other. Slow production/ ramp in middle of 2023. Mass production by end of year.

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[Deleted member 5322]

So far Tesla said:

1. End of 2021
2. Late 2022
3. Mid 2023

They have not said late 2023, and the article said 'mass production' not 'start production'.

-Crissa

As you pointed the date was shifted 3 times already. Don't see any reasons why it couldn't be shifted 4th time. Batteries production hell, WW3, Putin-Biden, recession, mining problems, supply chains issues and this list could go on and on.

So my point is, before I see a couple of them on the read - all these dates are just talks....

 

[Ogre]

As you pointed the date was shifted 3 times already. Don't see any reasons why it couldn't be shifted 4th time. Batteries production hell, WW3, Putin-Biden, recession, mining problems, supply chains issues and this list could go on and on.

So my point is, before I see a couple of them on the read - all these dates are just talks....

Who knows? It might be shifted 100 times. Or a million.

WHO KNOWS?

Since they are also increasing the price 100 fold, shipping in 2195 makes a lot of sense.

If we’re going to run our lives based on fear why not buy all in?

There is literally no update here. No change of state, just a random rumor.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Why there is no “Less than 0” Option?
I am personally thinking Tesla will delay CT to Q1 2024. So no deliveries in 2023.
I’ve heard enough from 2019 that production will start 2021, then 2022, then mid 2023, then late 2023….

Less than 0?
How do they deliver less then 0? Is that a scenario where someone somehow steals the handful of current model CT we occasionally get a glimpse of? I'm really not sure how else they could deliver less than nothing. Maybe if they flat-out cancel the CT I would consider that less than 0.

Now, if you think they will delay longer and deliver 0 CTs in 2023, (unless my yooper education misguided me) 0 still falls squarely into the <10k option. Actually, for that matter so does less than 0.

 

[davelloydbrown]

according to the delivery spreadsheet, I am around 34 k (and supposed to get it in September 2023) so hopefully they produce at least 50 k

 

[Lives2TruckAround]

So many people commented I just went to the end….

All I know is that I’m somewhere in the 200k orders (at least I think, could be less from cancellations, could be more) and I might not see my truck till end of 2024

 

[CyberCFP]

My guess is <1,000 in 2023.

 

[Marc Montgomery]

Elon's stated ramp-up goal is 250K CTs/yr...but how many will be delivered in 2023?
I'm just curious about what most of you think that number is. No explanation is needed, but feel free to state your case.

Since the manufacture of the truck is so much easier in process (although not in materials), the ramp up to full production should be much quicker than in either the 3 or y. About half the time. If they can meet the stated goal of full production by the end of 23, with 250k capacity at that time, then a linear run up (yeah, not quite realistic), would average out to about 75k (250k in a year, but this is only six months in, so 125k. Then starting a 0 and ramping up to full averages half for the period, so 75k). How does that sound?

 

[SpaceYooper]

How does that sound?

Sounds like as good of a guess as any. So you voted 50k - 100k?

 

[Marc Montgomery]

Sounds like as good of a guess as any. So you voted 50k - 100k?

Yes. Would be sweet if that works out.

 

[SgtSweatySac]

Wasn't aware that Tesla decided to adopt Valve Standard Time (*cries in Half Life 3*)

As for my cynical opinion, I'd be really surprised if they deliver more than a couple thousand. The ramp-up of the Y in Berlin and Texas, of an existing vehicle (though with structural changes) has been relatively tame. Now, you've got a completely different vehicle with a radically different material makeup from anything else on the road using equipment and techniques that didn't exist in the automotive sector previously.

There will likely be a LOT of testing, learning, and tweaking going on for the first couple months of production, as there should be. We want good vehicles that have as few issues as possible to make it into our hands.

 

[EVCanuck]

If Tesla delivers more than 1k Cybertrucks in 2023, I will flag it as success

 

[Ogre]

If Tesla delivers more than 1k Cybertrucks in 2023, I will flag it as success

If Tesla delivers more than 0 Cybertrucks to my house in 2023 I will consider it a success.

 

[Ogre]

Just about the time I ordered my truck, I started working on a trail project. Now 2 years later I’m still working on this same trail… it’s a crazy insane 3.5 miles of singletrack carved into 60 degree side slopes so it’s slow going.

Much like the Cybertruck, it’s been plagued with delays due to COVID, contractors cancelling planned work, and work stoppages due to fires.

So we’re strangely enough eyeballing a possible winter 2023/ spring 2024 opening date. If we don’t hit more delays.

So now the two events are racing in my head. Will we finish the trail first, or will I get my truck first? Both deadlines are prone to delays. Both would be very happy milestones.

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