How many Cybertrucks deliveries in 2023 ?

[TBONO]

How is this a delay from 'start production mid 2023'?

-Crissa

The delay relates to volume production start. It was supposed to be late 2023. Now volume production is 2024 and it’s not stated if that’s beginning of 2024, mid 2024 or end of 2024 point is 2024 is now in the dialogue and it was not before this is another delay, and for most people on this forum that impacts when they get their vehicles

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[Rutrow]

Here's one promising graph that should move you up to 685,975th in line.
... Can people bequeath their reservation in their will?

 

[Coolbreeze704]

You prefer cat-ass I can return to cat ass.

Please don't. That one always left me wanting to look away. Much prefer Bart

 

[jerhenderson]

When was volume 2024?



First mention of that was this last update. So that’s a delay in my book and I’m not a short seller. Those saying this is not a delay are pushing the stock





just still waiting for my truck from my 2019 launch night order which I still don’t know much about.

it was start production mid 2023 with ramp to volume for 2024. that's not new.

 

[TBONO]

it was start production mid 2023 with ramp to volume for 2024. that's not new.

Yes it is new.
Show me one reference where 2024 was part of the plan FOR PRODUCTION START

 

[Dusty]

Whatever happens regarding production, I think the attrition rate is what will really make a lot of us happy.

Someone mentioned on here months ago that the first 300k reservation holders will actually be like being in the first 100k. Once you take into consideration how many will lose their account, switch email addresses, simply cancel, lose interest, get scared off, purchased something else, can't really afford the CT initial pricing for one reason or another. etc.. I hope we get some data regarding it later on.

If they make 600 a week and I'm able to order according to my reservation number, I'm in the first production year. That's all I care about.

Yes it is new.
Show me one reference where 2024 was part of the plan FOR PRODUCTION START

Not disproving you but the clarification from the last earnings call a week or two ago Tesla said, quote:

...For 2023 Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year (2024). . . .We do expect production to start some time this summer. . .Volume production (which is more important) won't happen until 2024.

It maybe semantics, but production "start" based on their other vehicles means delivery of a handful of vehicles that are sold exclusively to local factory/HQ employees and maybe a few celebrity friends for the first 3-4 months.

 

[slomo]

The structural battery pack is likely the wildcard for CT volume. The Austin 4680 Y pack is currently a compromise. That compromise probably can't be used in the CT.

If the structural pack goes well, and the 4680 ramp goes well, the CT production ramp could be excellent.

The original model Y was delivered early. CT is trickier to build, but likely has a secret schedule of significant production in 2023.

 

[Dusty]

I just circled back to see what happened with the M3 in the first year.

The M3 launch, which Musk refers to this very day as "production hell", kicked off production at the beginning of Summer, July 28th of 2017. From July to October Tesla only delivered about 250 cars.

The last quarter of 2017 they delivered another 1500 M3s total. So, not even 2000 cars after 5 months of production.

The following quarter in 2018 Tesla delivered 10k M3s. Followed by,

- Q2 2018: 18k.
- Q3 2018: 56k
-Q4 2018: 64K

I think this is what we will see as a worst case scenario for the CT with 200-300 total by October... then a slow creep to less than 4000 by December. Then in Q1 2024 a ramp to 2000 per week then the Q2 Summer of 2024 obscene production numbers.

 

[Blue Steel]

I just circled back to see what happened with the M3 in the first year.

The M3 launch, which Musk refers to this very day as "production hell", kicked off production at the beginning of Summer, July 28th of 2017. From July to October Tesla only delivered about 250 cars.

The last quarter of 2017 they delivered another 1500 M3s total. So, not even 2000 cars after 5 months of production.

The following quarter in 2018 Tesla delivered 10k M3s. Followed by,

- Q2 2018: 18k.
- Q3 2018: 56k
-Q4 2018: 64K

I think this is what we will see as a worst case scenario for the CT with 200-300 total by October... then a slow creep to less than 4000 by December. Then in Q1 2024 a ramp to 2000 per week then the Q2 Summer of 2024 obscene production numbers.

I think this is a good example of a worst case ramp up. On one hand Tesla has MUCH more experience ramping to mass production than they did in 2017/18. They have much more resources. Better supply lines. Etc.

On the other hand, the CT is pioneering some new manufacturing techniques. There will be some growing pains as time passes.

 

[greggertruck]

I just circled back to see what happened with the M3 in the first year.

The M3 launch, which Musk refers to this very day as "production hell", kicked off production at the beginning of Summer, July 28th of 2017. From July to October Tesla only delivered about 250 cars.

The last quarter of 2017 they delivered another 1500 M3s total. So, not even 2000 cars after 5 months of production.

The following quarter in 2018 Tesla delivered 10k M3s. Followed by,

- Q2 2018: 18k.
- Q3 2018: 56k
-Q4 2018: 64K

I think this is what we will see as a worst case scenario for the CT with 200-300 total by October... then a slow creep to less than 4000 by December. Then in Q1 2024 a ramp to 2000 per week then the Q2 Summer of 2024 obscene production numbers.

Aside from the obvious "they've been making vehicles for longer", why do you have such a bullish stand for the production numbers?

 

[Dusty]

Bullish? Nah. It's basically how the M3 began initial production, and that was considered a bad launch.

Not bullish considering the model y did way way better in initial delivery and ramp. I guess it's bullish compared to Rivian, or the Lightning. I think it'll go better than the Model 3 worse than the Model Y.

Interesting fact... If Tesla delivers the CT at only 80% the rate of the Model 3's initial production— Their 3rd quarter deliveries alone would still be 50% more CTs than all F-150 Lightning and Rivian deliveries combined ever (about 35k trucks).

This time last year Ford said they were "doubling production" and building 80k F150Ls by the end of the year... they delivered 13k.

Ford then said later in 2022, "due to demand" they plan to "double production again!" and deliver 150k Lightnings next year. Yeah...sure, Ford. I guess this Summer they'll announce they're aiming to build 1 million F150Ls a week due to demand. I'm starting to think their plan is missing something. they're doubling their production wishes, not their actual production.

Then meantime people are saying, "Look at that! Ford is doubling their production to 150k F150Ls a year and Tesla still hasn't built a single Cybertruck!".

 

[HaulingAss]

I just circled back to see what happened with the M3 in the first year.

The M3 launch, which Musk refers to this very day as "production hell", kicked off production at the beginning of Summer, July 28th of 2017. From July to October Tesla only delivered about 250 cars.

The last quarter of 2017 they delivered another 1500 M3s total. So, not even 2000 cars after 5 months of production.

The following quarter in 2018 Tesla delivered 10k M3s. Followed by,

- Q2 2018: 18k.
- Q3 2018: 56k
-Q4 2018: 64K

I think this is what we will see as a worst case scenario for the CT with 200-300 total by October... then a slow creep to less than 4000 by December. Then in Q1 2024 a ramp to 2000 per week then the Q2 Summer of 2024 obscene production numbers.

Rivian delivered their first production vehicle in September 2021, by the end of the year they had delivered a total of 920 vehicles. 3 months later (6 months and a few days after the first deliveries) they had delivered a total of 2,147 vehicles. The following quarter they delivered another 4,467 vehicles. So, it took them over 9 months to deliver the first 6,614 vehicles.

That's even slower than the Model 3 ramp which started out super slow because Tesla needed to totally reconfigure the production lines and there were weeks with no new cars coming off the line. Musk admitted he screwed up. But they still beat Rivian by a healthy margin.

 

[jerhenderson]

Yes it is new.

Show me one reference where 2024 was part of the plan FOR PRODUCTION START

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...start-cybertruck-end-2023-sources-2022-11-01/

 

[TBONO]

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...start-cybertruck-end-2023-sources-2022-11-01/

So you agree with me…

Headline is pretty clear from what you sent:

Exclusive: Tesla's Cybertruck to start mass production at end of 2023

That is not 2024.

 

[jerhenderson]

So you agree with me…



Headline is pretty clear from what you sent:



Exclusive: Tesla's Cybertruck to start mass production at end of 2023



That is not 2024.

there's no delay when production begins 2023 to ramp to volume in 2024. that's not new.

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