December Deliveries -- How Many?

[Gurule92]

Updated guess
Employees 7
Retail 0
Lol ?

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[Crissa]

Because @cvalue13 has made [many] comments about the difference between LV and HV builds and so many people are trying to extrapolate from LV production rates to HV production rates. I did it too and he straightened me out, which I appreciated. So now I take the LV production rate as a baseline for HV production.

As have I. He posts alot of spam, tho.

I do not recall you or Elon saying that a production rate of 250/week in January, 2024 was the baseline. Sorry.

He's said they would not until they were no longer building them by hand, but didn't say what the base rate would be. It was 'capacity for 1000 a week' but that's not the same as rate.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

FAIK, Musk has only talked about reaching a 250k trucks built per year “once CT line reaches full production.” That was in response to Q&A at Investor day. This is an total annual production, and wasn’t tied to any timeline of expectation as to when that would occur.

But separately and more recently, last Q3 call, Musk talked of line capacity, which is of course different. There, he staked out that line capacity would reach a run rate of 250K / yr, sometime in 2025. (Separately, the Q3 deck said for 2024 the line capacity was half that, 125k/yr rate max).

Assuming Musk’s timing expectations are correct (?), if the line doesn’t reach a rate of 250k/yr until 2025, not until 2026 could the total annual production reach 250k.


Where 250 trucks/week metric comes from I wouldn’t know. I would be shocked to hear that Musk has ever given that level of granularity to their early ramp expectations, much less that it wouldn’t have been quoted repeatedly around here ever since.

That was a complete guess on my part and wasn't anchored to anything anyone said, but @Crissa made a comment thqt made me think (that he thought) it was old news. Maybe he thought I meant 250K/year but I really said/meant 250/week.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

As have I. He posts alot of spam, tho.


He's said they would not until they were no longer building them by hand, but didn't say what the base rate would be. It was 'capacity for 1000 a week' but that's not the same as rate.

-Crissa

I thought that the initial capacity was stated as 125K/year (or 2,500/week at 50 weeks of production) but no one has ever said how long it will take to ahieve that rate. My guess is 1/10th of that as a starting point with a rate doubling every other month (or so).

 

[cvalue13]

I thought that the initial capacity was stated as 125K/year (or 2,500/week at 50 weeks of production) but no one has ever said how long it will take to ahieve that rate. My guess is 1/10th of that as a starting point with a rate doubling every other month (or so).

inof course can’t see your convo (nor can she she mine here), but

I’d note that the Q3 deck said the line capacity was 125k, but never said whether they expected to hit that capacity during 2024

instead, the only thing keyed to when they’d hit a certain run rate was Musks comments, of 250k run rate at some point in 2025

depending on how ramp goes, that means they may or may not hit a run rate of 125k/yr during 2024.

nor did they say how far into 2024 production was anticipated to start.


Regardless, a good lower bound would seem to be what they’ve done in the past during first 4Qs of production with the other high volume units: Model Y 70k, Model 3 36K in first 4 Qs after production starts

one of course could argue they’ve learned from the past; but that to me seems as likely to be offset by having never learned the CT’s production before


- otherwise I’d mention that Crissa blocked me for me maintaining things like there would be no midgate, truck interior is narrower than F150, truck is shorter than F150, etc.

And between her and I, I suspect only one of us has sat in a Cybertruck.

 

[Crissa]

I thought that the initial capacity was stated as 125K/year (or 2,500/week at 50 weeks of production) but no one has ever said how long it will take to ahieve that rate. My guess is 1/10th of that as a starting point with a rate doubling every other month (or so).

Yeah, their rosy timeline is doubling each month (which would get them there in a year, assuming starting at 100 or 50 this month.

It sounds crazy, but they have done it, so...

-Crissa

 

[Beyond]

Oh boy, I get to guess too! It'll be a prime number. The prime numbers from 1 to 300 are:

2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, 41, 43, 47, 53, 59, 61, 67, 71, 73, 79, 83, 89, 97, 101, 103, 107, 109, 113, 127, 131, 137, 139, 149, 151, 157, 163, 167, 173, 179, 181, 191, 193, 197, 199, 211, 223, 227, 229, 233, 239, 241, 251, 257, 263, 269, 271, 277, 281, 283, 293.

Since 179 is a superprime and the 41st superprime (which is the 13th superprime) I'm going with 179. That's final. ?

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