I may not be able to buy a Cybertruck unless something changes. Anyone else?

[Arctic_White]

Oh boy......

Please don't recommend to anyone buying BTC.

I own BTC, and I'm one of the lucky few that got in when it was under $1k. I follow crypto as closely as I follow my TSLA. Not that anyone asked me, but cyrpto is little more than betting on sports or heading to the casino.

IMO, we are decades away from crypto amounting to anything, if it ever does. There are so many forces working against crypto that it may just never amount to what anyone hoped.

Hold your TSLA. Finance your CT when your number is called. The TSLA will be worth more than the CT in 10 years.

Again, no one asked, I'm not offering advice, just my opinion. Back to drinking my coffee and lurking in the shadows.

TSLA right now is so undervalued... it's borderline going to become a joke.

On December 31, 2020, Tesla had an EPS of $0.64 with share price of $235.22. P/E ratio? A mind-boggling 235.22 which was borderline a meme stock IMO.
On December 31, 2021, Tesla had an EPS of $2.57 with share price of $352.26. P/E at that time was 137.07.

For 2023, I'm estimating Tesla's EPS (that is Earnings Per Share, Diluted, GAAP) to be around $8. At a $360 share price, that leads to a P/E ratio of just 45. You might say whoa, Ray, $8 EPS is far too rich. I say look at the historical growth. Tesla didn't even make profits until 2019. Since then, they're on a rampage and expecting to grow their revenues by 50% Y/Y over the "next foreseeable future!" This is a huge bullish sign.

I'm simply looking at the numbers here and the current stock price of $180 is a bargain. I fully expect the share price to be double this amount within the next 12 to 14 months. (Feb '24, latest.)

At the end of the day, Elon and his antics is just noise. Long-term fundamentals are what drive a stock's price. I am buying TSLA but I am also a long-term holder (10+ years) not a short-term gambler / trader.

This is not financial advice.

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[charliemagpie]

TSLA Vs AMZN shares similar forward PE Vs Trailing trend.. Yet Amazon trailing is near 80PE Vs TSLA 56PE.

Just on that, I would say we are conservatively 40% undervalued right now. All things being equal, the current $180 should be $250.

-----

Austin and Germany will be nearly 500,000 each in 2023 . Plus CT and SEMI which will increase the overall production +1 million over 2022.

Plus 10X extra megapacks being produced in 23.

Overall, 2023 will be greater than 50% increase, it will be closer to 70%

So leading into 23.. the attraction should be more TSLA than AMZN.

PE should be at least the same as AMZN now.

 

[intimidator]

Yes here too. I said as much in a recent post. More of a hypothetical.

I am not worried.
If Tesla doesn't recover, we will all go down. It will be a bigger issue, not just a recession.

In March 2020 TSLA stock went through the same thing.. Much worse than now.

6 months later the stock went up 5 fold or whatever.

Whatever the current tribulation, when it's time to recover , TSLA IMO will b alive on the other side.

IMO not only will the stock price increase to adjust this last 12 months improvement, it will increase in accordance with 2023 1st and 2nd qrt results.

Plus, it will restore a higher PE. A quick doubling or tripling is not out of the question.

This time is a little different that 2020. Investors will bidding up stocks to crazy PE levels....happens as sentiment gets to giddy...."it's going to the moon".

Now investor sentiment is more subdued, and stocks probably won't be shooting up like 20-21.

We shall see where the price goes in the short term. I am holding for at least 5 more years, so hopefully by then there is an increase in the stock price.

 

[jerhenderson]

Yes you’re right but at least they’ll be available…sometimes the best ability is availability…

available with a wait as long as the CT.

 

[rlhamil]

I’m sure I’m not the only one in this boat:
- My Tesla stock has lost $100,000.
- I can’t afford the 1st Cybertruck on order (dual motor) unless the stock bounces back by the time mine is made (600,000 th.)
- I can’t justify the 2nd (tri motor) unless the first can make money as a robotaxi (like Elon promised).

IMO the robotaxi angle was always a gamble, maybe not whether, but at least when. Approved (in your country/state) true self-driving without a driver, and maybe some extra software to handle the customer request/pay interactions? <2 yr, I doubt it very much; <5 yr, maybe (but even if the capability gets there, the regulatory approval may take years more); <10 yr stronger maybe to probably. ZERO inside info, just a guess based on it being one of those problems that keeps getting more difficult the further you get into it.

 

[charliemagpie]

7.7 Billiion people in other countries if America doesn't like Robotaxis.

For at least a few years, I think there will be enough places to soak up all of Robotaxi's rollout capacity.

 

[speach]

I have a different problem. I hit my savings goal for CT recently (I figured it would be three years before my CT would be ready when I started saving ?). My truck just crapped out after 250k miles. Now what?…I can’t wait another 3 years.

I was in the same boat. So I bought a used Model S and kept my "truck" for when I really actually need a truck to tow things. I figured when the CT finally does come out, I'll figure it out then what to do. Best decision ever. I have been mostly driving it for a month now but took an 8 hr round trip last night in my wife's Acura MDX. As much as I loved that car when we bought it a year ago, going to it from the Tesla felt like I was going back 15 years.

 

[Doneski]

This is how the thread ends: no Cybertruck for me.
I got rid of my Chevy Avalanche which I LOVED and bought a Ford Maverick Hybrid and it is great for what it is. It’s not big or as capable but I got it new for $27k. Also, it gets 40 or more Mpg.

The Hybrid was 1/3 the price when I compared the purchase price + tax on any money I spend + interest payments. I’m enjoying it now not later, I can afford it, and no money goes into Elon’s pockets.

Also, EVERYONE loves it.

 

[Cyberman]

This is how the thread ends: no Cybertruck for me.
I got rid of my Chevy Avalanche which I LOVED and bought a Ford Maverick Hybrid and it is great for what it is. It’s not big or as capable but I got it new for $27k. Also, it gets 40 or more Mpg.

The Hybrid was 1/3 the price when I compared the purchase price + tax on any money I spend + interest payments. I’m enjoying it now not later, I can afford it, and no money goes into Elon’s pockets.

Also, EVERYONE loves it.

I hear ya, when the algorithm told me I would get my CT in August of 2023, I thought, no f-ing way. But here I am, summer 2024 and no CT in sight, they've offered me the $100,000-$120,000 option twice, but no way Jose. Was planning on spending 50 g's, now it's 80 g's. Not happy, but still grinding my teeth here. I don't mind sending Elon money, but c'mon dude, do you have to take it all??!?!!?

 

[Crissa]

Same, but out here the small trucks like the Cruz and Mavericks are just unobtainium and not sure they'd fit the bike. I really want an EV.

So I continue to wait and watch them churn through the higher price points...

-Crissa

PS: Thank you for sharing the status of your truck! @Doneski ! ^-^

 

[Quicksilver]

I had to replace my little Nissan van with a 2019 Dodge mini van.
I had hoped the Nesu would make it till the CT gets here but it ate a transmission.
It was also incapable of hauling grandkids around in (no rear seats).
At current production rate (50,000 per year?) I'm looking at two years minimum before I get mine.
I'm buying TSLA in the dip and hanging in like a hair on a biscuit.

 

[Doneski]

Final update by original poster; I finally cancelled both of my Cybertruck orders because things did change: the got worse.
1) price went up,
2) functionally went down,
3) robotaxi never materialized
3) dangerous to pedestrians and owners
4) driving a Tesla now seems to mean you support right wing extremism. Very sad.

 

[StanMI]

Glad you did not make any purchase.....I'm sure any post you would have had would be more about the sky is falling and nothing productive !!!

 

[tingmo13]

when T$LA gets to $1000 a share I will buy Cyberbeast and ask Unplug Performance to chip off 12-16". It's not the Price but the Size.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

TSLA right now is so undervalued... it's borderline going to become a joke.

On December 31, 2020, Tesla had an EPS of $0.64 with share price of $235.22. P/E ratio? A mind-boggling 235.22 which was borderline a meme stock IMO.
On December 31, 2021, Tesla had an EPS of $2.57 with share price of $352.26. P/E at that time was 137.07.

For 2023, I'm estimating Tesla's EPS (that is Earnings Per Share, Diluted, GAAP) to be around $8. At a $360 share price, that leads to a P/E ratio of just 45. You might say whoa, Ray, $8 EPS is far too rich. I say look at the historical growth. Tesla didn't even make profits until 2019. Since then, they're on a rampage and expecting to grow their revenues by 50% Y/Y over the "next foreseeable future!" This is a huge bullish sign.

I'm simply looking at the numbers here and the current stock price of $180 is a bargain. I fully expect the share price to be double this amount within the next 12 to 14 months. (Feb '24, latest.)

At the end of the day, Elon and his antics is just noise. Long-term fundamentals are what drive a stock's price. I am buying TSLA but I am also a long-term holder (10+ years) not a short-term gambler / trader.

This is not financial advice.

You miss the highly relevant fact that Tesla's sales and earnings are both declining, with little prospect for reversal.

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