It’s looking like 2024 for Cybertruck deliveries

[fritter63]

I can say I pined away for a Tesla of any kind for years. I finally got tired of waiting for the CT, and was in a position to take the plunge on a P100D Model S (keeping my tow vehicle for boats, etc). I could not be happier. I love (love love) this car, and believe when the CT does finally come out, I'll be ready for it. I would recommend to anyone else who is waiting for the CT for their first Tesla, don't. Go buy a S3XY now (if you are able).

meh, we already got two they’re VARY nice!

- Monty Python

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[Mike the cyberguy]

That is what I gained from yesterdays earnings report. it sounds like we will see pre-production Cybertruck’s running around Austin but volume production won’t happen until 2024. A few lucky buyers may receive their trucks in late 2023 however.

I have no doubt the truck will be worth it though. It will be a one of kind vehicle. What other vehicle will have a 3mm thick SS exoskeleton and looks like it was designed by aliens? Patience grasshoppers.

I just want my CT when they figure out the 4680 cell (# 500ml, 5,500LB, $69,420)?

 

[ldjessee]

I hate to be a realist, but the CT ramp probably won't be as fast as the Y. Y shared 80% parts with 3.
The folding process is new, the gigacast is bigger and Tesla struggled with the front cast on the Y (rev ? Y)

This all said, the team that builds the factory that builds the car is getting better every year. Telsa is a true manufacturing expert now. Big, but innovative and flexible at the same time. This is the true story.

If I remember correctly, Munro, who has torn down multiple Teslas, has said there is not that much part commonality.
The castings are not the same, the battery packs are not the same. There are things they do have in common, but not 80% worth.

 

[Tinker71]

If I remember correctly, Munro, who has torn down multiple Teslas, has said there is not that much part commonality.
The castings are not the same, the battery packs are not the same. There are things they do have in common, but not 80% worth.

At launch that was the number discussed. It was a number hyped to make investors believe that the ramp would be smoother. I supposed it also counted lots of small repetitive parts like sensors etc. Non the less the Y ramp was Tesla's fastest and smoothest.

Telsa's organization has improved since the model 3. Logistics, vendor tracking, warranty tracking......you name it.

So for the CT it is mostly the new technical processes. SS folding and that giant rear cast. Most everything else has been done before now with the Y innovations.

 

[Crissa]

Also, Munro has pointed out that part commonality over time isn't as high because Tesla keeps updating their cars all the time.

-Crissa

Edit: spelling

 

[fritter63]

Alao, Munro has pointed out that part commonality over time isn't as high because Tesla keeps updating their cars all the time.

-Crissa

The inventory/parts/maintenance info system software must be ridiculous.....

"Accessing subsystem diagram variation 3,000,564....."

 

[Crissa]

The inventory/parts/maintenance info system software must be ridiculous.....

"Accessing subsystem diagram variation 3,000,564....."

Just because you didn't use the same part doesn't mean you can't slot in the new part.

Modern databases provide the detail to know which parts went into which vin.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

Alao, Munro has pointed out that part commonality over time isn't as high because Tesla keeps updating their cars all the time.

-Crissa

Alao ???

 

[gc2488]

This is exciting, 2024 will be great timing for us. Just looking forward to far-out features such as
- ground clearance
- AC outlets
- amphibious operation
- rear steering
- FSD
- armor glass
- stainless steel and rugged utilitarian accessories a la Jeep Wrangler

 

[greggertruck]

Model Y GT walked so Cybertruck could run. I think it's more important the Cybertruck is being built than the Y in Texas. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[CyberGus]

The inventory/parts/maintenance info system software must be ridiculous.....

"Accessing subsystem diagram variation 3,000,564....."

John DeLorean left GM to start his own company, in part because he felt the automotive industry was unethical. Problems found during the model year were left to be corrected in the next model year to help sell the new "improved" models, as well as keeping the line running smoothly without any changes or retraining.

If you accept that is is unethical to keep building a product with known defects, then the extreme solution is to rapidly iterate and update, and this practice has allowed Tesla's innovation to outpace the field.

 

[fritter63]

If you accept that is is unethical to keep building a product with known defects, then the extreme solution is to rapidly iterate and update, and this practice has allowed Tesla's innovation to outpace the field.

Not arguing against it, just pointing how complex the software must be to manage it (and maintenance) (hint, look at my job title).

 

[TechOps]

This is exciting, 2024 will be great timing for us. Just looking forward to far-out features such as
- ground clearance
- AC outlets
- amphibious operation
- rear steering
- FSD
- armor glass
- stainless steel and rugged utilitarian accessories a la Jeep Wrangler

I can't wait for ~2025 and the "Needs to kick butt in Baja" version

 

[ldjessee]

At launch that was the number discussed. It was a number hyped to make investors believe that the ramp would be smoother. I supposed it also counted lots of small repetitive parts like sensors etc. Non the less the Y ramp was Tesla's fastest and smoothest.

Telsa's organization has improved since the model 3. Logistics, vendor tracking, warranty tracking......you name it.

So for the CT it is mostly the new technical processes. SS folding and that giant rear cast. Most everything else has been done before now with the Y innovations.

The only thing new is the stainless steel.
Sure this casting is bigger, but they have done them.
Rear wheel steer might have teething issues as well, but not something new for the industry as a whole.

 

[rr6013]

The only thing new is the stainless steel.

Ahem… the platform, factory, TX workforce, supply chain and DOJO.

Elon has big balls changing everything at once, really. Any one of those is a heavy lift. GigaTX and IDRA are why Cybertruck never happened in 2022. Out of the blocks recruitment in Austin wasn’t anything like what was expected and housing - a constraint. Lithium is not a SOP factor, but in out years of production is viewed - at risk. Biden’s subsidizing Tesla to home it’s processing stateside. But raw Li remains a highly contested variable Tesla would like to cap. AND DOJO…an experiment that may be unnecessary - a good thing. Engineers are training FSD on existing hardware. DOJO is now backup in the case FSD training doesn’t scale, the supercompute route will scale — IF they can get it to run as envisioned. Run is a software term of art that code architecture is compatible with a hardware stack to accomplish throughput data in meaningful, usable form. Tesla aren’t there yet.

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