It is going to be hard to make it affordable

[TBONO]

Sounds like some fair price estimates to me.

https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/tesla-cybertruck-pricing/

2.5 seconds 0-60??
Would love to see that!!

is this a WAG that going from 3 motor @ 2.9, to 4 motors get you another half second off?

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[uscbucsfan]

2.5 seconds 0-60??
Would love to see that!!

is this a WAG that going from 3 motor @ 2.9, to 4 motors get you another half second off?

Yes.

 

[TBONO]

Yes.

Bring it

 

[anionic1]

Agreed. Sounds like they need to know demand a little better to determine cost. I bet they could stick to original pricing if demand is high. I still think they'll keep it under $80k IRA limit. I don't see them producing 250-500k/year if you price it higher

Tesla has a crazy popularity and I think once people realize the utility of a truck with very low maintenance and operating cost I think more people will shift to trucks. The average price paid for a truck in 2022 was about $56k. Now think about this. The average non luxury non EV new vehicle sold for around $46k last year. The average EV sold for $64k. Their could be a debate whether EVs are more luxury items. The average non EV luxury vehicle sold close to the EV number. So generally that means that either people were willing to pay 40% more for an EV or people shopping for luxury vehicles opted for EVs at the same price point. Its probably a combo. but just looking at the simple math. If the average truck sold for $56k the average EV truck will sell for $75k if you add the 40%.

 

[cvalue13]

Eyeroll. Dude's like... "This isn't direct towards you..." (proceeds to fire several rounds at feet).

fair enough. Meant it, even if ham-fisted

You ever think that quip-lords™ shorten their replies and give" soft-headed" hot-takes because 8 times out of 10¹ long pedantic monologues suck?

It’s not long-winded to say “manufacturing
is complicated, and these companies have different strategies - I think tesla’s is better in long run”

Which is substantively different from:

$55k and they make a 1% margin on it, they'll be making 100% more profit at a lower price than every other EV truck maker on the market.

and in response, how long-winded was:

this is a pretty tired quip, especially because it betrays mostly a lack of either (a) understanding or (b) interest in accuracy

See how well brevity went?

besides, I type on my phone for a living, ain’t no thing to bang out a few paras and get some cheap therapy

 

[alexbeau]

And I want to say I think Tesla should have expected 3-4% of inflation for five years when estimating their pricing; that way they had wriggle room if it was above or below expectations.

So I don't expect a 10% increase in prices, my guess is from 0-5%

However, initial model choice might obscure it.

-Crissa

This seems logical to me. We have had some crazy inflation in the last few years, though. Also, Tesla probably didn't foresee the delays that were caused by COVID, which means they are probably releasing this vehicle later than intended (more inflation). Regardless, I think there is no way this thing starts at 80-100k. That would dry up demand pretty quickly.

I believe this truck could hit price parity with the average F150, as that was the goal stated from the very start. The lack of paint and 3D body panels will make a huge difference in the production cost.

 

[cvalue13]

I believe this truck could hit price parity with the average F150,

depending on what you mean by “average”…

In 2022, the “average” sales price of an F-series truck was ~$45,000. That factors in sales of not just F-150s but also 250s, and 350s.

While this average sales price may seem surprising, it emphasizes what many around here correctly point out: volume is at the low end, by orders of magnitude

So when in 2022 Ford sold ~650,000 F-series trucks, that the average sales price was ~$45K should directionally indicate where the bulk of those sales were, price-wise

 

[alexbeau]

depending on what you mean by “average”…

In 2022, the “average” sales price of an F-series truck was ~$45,000. That factors in sales of not just F-150s but also 250s, and 350s.

While this average sales price may seem surprising, it emphasizes what many around here correctly point out: volume is at the low end, by orders of magnitude

So when in 2022 Ford sold ~650,000 F-series trucks, that the average sales price was ~$45K should directionally indicate where the bulk of those sales were, price-wise

Good point.

 

[HaulingAss]

To those of you that have been watching Tesla for a while, is it possible Tesla initially sells some CTs at higher price to some reservation holders and sells the same trim at lower price later to other reservation holders (at the same margin because they learn how to reduce production cost)? Or they will keep the prices fixed for all current reservation holders and just enjoy higher margins as they become more efficient?

It sounds like as of now they have not figured out how to produce it cheaply and expect demand to drop both due to high interest rates and hi production cost (price).

Tesla plays the long game. That means they will price it where they think they can lock the price in for as long as possible without needing to raise or lower it. It's not in Tesla's best interest to sell it to loyal customers like myself, and other reservation holders for a high price, only to drop the price massively when they run out of reservations - they want as smooth a transition from reservations to month-to-month sales as possible. So they will price it for the market they think will exist when they run out of early reservations.

The one possible deviation from this might be to sell only the highest spec quad motors first to cover some of the development costs early in the game.

Of course the market that exists depends upon annual production numbers. The more Tesla plans to produce, the lower the price will need to be to reach enough buyers who can afford it. Tesla is anticipating 250,000-500,000 annually which is more than many competing 1/2 ton trucks. This is good news because it means the Cybertruck is a mass-market truck that will be priced competitively with existing trucks, both for early reservationists and also for late-comers.

Cybertrucks real competition, from a pricing perspective, are other mass-market trucks. This explicitly excludes other electric trucks because they will not be produced in high enough numbers to even matter from a competitive perspective. Tesla needs to displace ICE sales with the Cybertruck in order for it to be a success. So don't look to the Lightnings and Rivians of the world for pricing guidance, look to F-150's, Rams and Silverados, trucks that sell in high volumes.

That's the only place you will find Cybertrucks only real competiton yet many dumb auto analysts miss this simple principle and think Cybertuck's competition is only very low volume EV trucks from other manufacturers. Once you understand Tesla's EV's eat into sales of ICE vehicles, not so much other EV's, you will be smarter than most professional auto analysts. Most of them couldn't analyze their way out of a carboard box if you paid them.

 

[HaulingAss]

“So the Cybertruck is a hard car to make. Because it’s such a radically new design, you can’t just use conventional methods of manufacturing. We had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton-based car instead of an endoskeleton-based car,”

He said this right before the statement on cost.

Exactly! It's not that it's so expensive to make each Cybertruck, it's that- it's difficult to figure out how to make it affordable, considering how different it is from any other vehicle. That is the entire premise behind high-volume products, make them efficiently, in high enough volumes, and the volume will pay for all the development to figure out how to make them efficiently. It's the same principle that brought the Ford Model T to the middle class, first affordable car ever. It wasn't cheap or easy to get there, but Ford reduced the cost of a new car by a about 400% by putting in the hard work to figure out how to build them efficiently. For the first time ever, a factory worker could afford a new car for his family. Before that, new cars were only for bankers, businessmen and aristocrats.

Make no mistake, the Cybertruck will be a mass-market vehicle, Elon knows it has to be or it would have all been a failure.

 

[Greshnab]

before I reply let me specify one thing up front.. I think the main issue with cybertruck when they start production will be making enough of them; I FIRMLY believe they are going to sell out of these things for the next six years straight.

Having said that even if i am wrong and they NEVER go past the 50k a year mark; I don't think the cybertruck can ever be considered a failure. Tesla has learned a TON building this; they used the knowledge from it to compleatly redesign the model Y and reduce complexity and build time, the knowledge they have gained will go into EVERY future Tesla vehicle.

the knowledge gain from researching and producing this vehicle IMHO will be driving tesla into the near future.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Exactly! It's not that it's so expensive to make each Cybertruck, it's that- it's difficult to figure out how to make it affordable, considering how different it is from any other vehicle. That is the entire premise behind high-volume products, make them efficiently, in high enough volumes, and the volume will pay for all the development to figure out how to make them efficiently. It's the same principle that brought the Ford Model T to the middle class, first affordable car ever. It wasn't cheap or easy to get there, but Ford reduced the cost of a new car by a about 400% by putting in the hard work to figure out how to build them efficiently. For the first time ever, a factory worker could afford a new car for his family. Before that, new cars were only for bankers, businessmen and aristocrats.

Make no mistake, the Cybertruck will be a mass-market vehicle, Elon knows it has to be or it would have all been a failure.

Just as advertised in 2019 there will be lower cost models and higher cost.

The higher cost won't sell as much as the lower cost, but will likely be produced first.

There will be a very slow ramp and mass production starts in 2024.

Everything else is a guess.

 

[Sirfun]

Exactly! It's not that it's so expensive to make each Cybertruck, it's that- it's difficult to figure out how to make it affordable, considering how different it is from any other vehicle. That is the entire premise behind high-volume products, make them efficiently, in high enough volumes, and the volume will pay for all the development to figure out how to make them efficiently. It's the same principle that brought the Ford Model T to the middle class, first affordable car ever. It wasn't cheap or easy to get there, but Ford reduced the cost of a new car by a about 400% by putting in the hard work to figure out how to build them efficiently. For the first time ever, a factory worker could afford a new car for his family. Before that, new cars were only for bankers, businessmen and aristocrats.

Make no mistake, the Cybertruck will be a mass-market vehicle, Elon knows it has to be or it would have all been a failure.

I'm in the same camp, with the statement it's difficult to make them affordable.

He's not saying that it's not going to be affordable. He's saying, that's his goal. And it's damn hard to do. None of the other manufacturers thought Tesla could pull off what they've already done. Because it's damn near impossible.

Look at the history of Tesla, Elon loves taking on what other people think is improbable and make it happen.

 

[rudedawg78]

Look at the history of Tesla, Elon loves taking on what other people think is improbable and make it happen

THIS!! You are spot on. Tesla is not a company that enjoys doing the "easy stuff." They always tend to drive towards the difficult, or "damn near impossible" tasks/projects...but end up succeeding in the end!

 

[LoneWolfO6]

Ha, it was mentioned few years back on a Plaid Cybertruck price, and folks were like “plaid, where do you get that, no one ever said there was going to be a plaid?” BLUF: hard to manufacture = more consumer capital.

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