It is going to be hard to make it affordable

[Jhodgesatmb]

I mean, I'm all in. But if I'm priced out I'm priced out.

R1S reservation looking mighty nice rn

The R1S is very nice.

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[Jhodgesatmb]

To those of you that have been watching Tesla for a while, is it possible Tesla initially sells some CTs at higher price to some reservation holders and sells the same trim at lower price later to other reservation holders (at the same margin because they learn how to reduce production cost)? Or they will keep the prices fixed for all current reservation holders and just enjoy higher margins as they become more efficient?

It sounds like as of now they have not figured out how to produce it cheaply and expect demand to drop both due to high interest rates and hi production cost (price).

Tesla changes their pricing based on costs and demand … all the time. They will likely do the same with the CT. The question for us is what will they do with reservation prices. I wish I knew but I don’t.

 

[Rutrow]

What you talkin' about?! It's frikkin gorgeous! ?

That's what people say about their own ugly kids...

And they're not lying. ?

 

[Crissa]

People reading 'tone' into Elon's words worries me more than Elon's 'tone'. He has Aspergers. His words are what are important, not any 'tone'.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

I do expect all models to increase in price, but the greater discrepancy may be on the $40,000 version, he may have been relating more to this model.

Aside from the pre-scaling price points(who knows?) , Elon once said Tesla would maintain a manufacturing advantage. That should translate to having meaningful lower price points over the competition.

Wait and see.

 

[Dusty]

@charliemagpie : If Tesla sells the CT model originally slated for $40k for $55k and they make a 1% margin on it, they'll be making 100% more profit at a lower price than every other EV truck maker on the market. The sad state of Rivian and Ford manufacturing creates a low bar for Tesla to have an advantage.

I feel like the CTs only competition will be itself for at least 2 years.

 

[cvalue13]

and they make a 1% margin on it, they'll be making 100% more profit at a lower price than every other EV truck maker on the market. The sad state of Rivian and Ford manufacturing creates a low bar for Tesla to have an advantage.

this is a pretty tired quip, especially because it betrays mostly a lack of either (a) understanding or (b) interest in accuracy

 

[Dusty]

Ford and Rivian lose money on every Lightning/R1S/R1T they sell. Tesla knows this, so the pressure of delivering a sub-$50k CT at this point is exactly zero. On top of that Ford and Rivian EV trucks combined didn't even deliver 15k in Q1 of this year.

The bottom line is that if a $55k base CT is the lowest priced model, please tell me what remotely comparable EV is on the market and available for a better price that people will buy instead?

What nuance is an uncultured cave-dweller like myself missing?

 

[Crissa]

Ford and Rivian lose money on every Lightning/R1S/R1T they sell. Tesla knows this, so the pressure of delivering a sub-$50k CT at this point is exactly zero. On top of that Ford and Rivian EV trucks combined didn't even deliver 15k in Q1 of this year.

Tesla doesn't compete with piddly numbers of other EVs. They compete with conventional ICE vehicles.

That's the pressure. Their pressure is to beat ICE vehicles on TCO and vehicle production numbers.

-Crissa

 

[cvalue13]

What nuance is an uncultured cave-dweller like myself missing?

I’m not remotely suggesting rhat

only that you appear to be merely parroting a quip you’ve heard (eg “Ford loses money in every Lightning they sell”) without thinking through it, or having interest in any nuance

absent that thought or nuance, the exact same quip of “loses money on every one they sell” can also be said of every CT that Tesla sells for the near to medium term

I don’t vouch for, know, or care much about Rivian’s financials - I personally find them a pretty sorry operation, business-wise

but as for the Lightning:

• there’s a good case to be made that Ford never intended the Lightning to be a net positive revenue generator - they stuffed BEV guts in an ICE platform to get something viable to market ‘first’ (their first truly BEV truck won’t be described until 2025)

• even we’re the above strategy disbelieved, the “loses money on every lightning” quip appears to be first and primarily based on the net revenue figures of the Model E division, widely known to have “lost” $3B last year

• but as a new division, these aren’t surprising loses - want to see a precedent of what a company “loses” in building a BEV company:

​

and the above figures are after accounting for federal credit trading (and Bitcoin trading)​

​

worth pausing to note that I purposefully used a graph from a source that was agenda/based, uninterested in nuance, and to that extent misleading. Not because the numbers are wrong: Tesla has on a net income basis burned billions, despite uplift from federal credits, for more than a decade before it even sniffed at a single dollar of net income.​

​

and that’s not describing a failing, that’s describing the complexity, risk, and life-cycle of complex manufacturing with extensive distribution loads.​

• it’s at this point the quip-lords like to chime in with, e.g., “Tesla has highest margins!” - which is another soft-headed reduction of what is a far more complex comparison.

Tesla’s gross margins are “higher” primarily (more on that) from the fact that it’s distribution chain is fully integrated, which means it retains more margin in exchange for burning more CapEx; the traditional dealer model instead trades lower margins for distributing on OpEx - put differently, Ford’s margins are at wholesale, while Tesla’s are at retail. Those are two very different strategies, both with strength and weaknesses, and equally viable - which is why all across the world you find businesses that are wholesale-only vs D2C.

In large part (more on that), saying “Tesla’s margins are higher than Ford’s” is as uninteresting and un-insightful as quipping “Costco’s margins on a rib-eye are lower than the restaurant who buys the rib-eye and sells it at the restaurant”

Costco exchanges that lower margin, happily, for the pricing power and and lack of exposure to the costs of running a restaurant.

As for the “more on that”:

It’s at THIS point, faced with any nuance, the quip-lord begins to buckle down into details and come up with a marginal counter point at some edge. But that’s only making the point.

Because the point was that these quips that are uninterested in nuance are just as patently “incorrect” as, and in the same way as, Wolfstreet.com’s blaring about Tesla’s “Red Ink Parade” prior to 2021 (when Tesla made its first net revenue not on the back of federal credit and Bitcoin trading

it’s only nominally true, in a way that favors agenda over relevant information

These above are only the tip of the nuance one would need to say anything meaningful about a comparison of Ford’s net revenue and cost-per-vehicle in the Model E division in 2023 vs Tesla’s figures in 2023

I suppose it’s MOST tiring when the very same people who fume at the sort of “Red Ink Parade” journalism when inaccurately directed at Tesla, are suddenly happy to ignore any of that same accuracy when they’re given the chance to wield it against “the other team”

Which is to say, nothing is more unbecoming than intellectual dishonesty

which isn’t directed towards you, but instead the sources of these quips, which you appear to only be parroting

 

[Daddystired]

Time stamped discussion of CT. Not sounding optimistic on the pricing.

So model x price plaid is roughly 109k but production per year is…. Idk…
But tesla model s price plaid is roughly 109k but production per year idk…

Tesla said they will make 250k cybertrucks. He also said it’ll be hard to make it affordable. I think he has true sympathy on what is affordable for us regular folks. 45k loan right now is like 800 a month. That’s barely even affordable rn.

But Rivian says they will only produce 130k-150k per year and they are priced around 80k I believe same for ford lightning.


Well model x/s together produce roughly 75k per year. Back to my point and hopes… if they are shooting for cybertruck alone to produce 250k per year. He’s honestly backing what he said I believe in 2020. Buuuut 250k per year beats Rivian at roughly 150k per year and roughly 80k price point will be beat as well ?‍???

 

[ninja6r]

And Chevy just introduced a sub-$80k truck with 450 miles of range. Interesting to see what Tesla decides to do.

 

[Dusty]

@cvalue13

Eyeroll. Dude's like... "This isn't direct towards you..." (proceeds to fire several rounds at feet).

I get it, you're the details guy. You ever think that quip-lords™ shorten their replies and give" soft-headed" hot-takes because 8 times out of 10¹ long pedantic monologues suck?

Everything you've said we pretty much know. I'll spin it with my reply in a quip, because—me...

Ford's been in the car game since day one, for over a century. This auto industry space, that they should have down pat by now, seems to have become an uphill battle that they're ill-equipped for. They've been floundering at it for about 2 decades. Their restructuring and efforts to adjust for the coming century has been a combination of half-assed-ness, and showing up a day late'n a dollar short. Besides that, Tesla is fundamentally different from Ford as a company. Because of this, Tesla has the luxury of pricing their vehicles to make money and still kick Ford in the nuts. [Citation] -meh, not that necessary- [/Citation]

And, like that my quip of a reply disappears like a fart in the wind...

So, I get it, your advice to me is to be more nuanced, and place more effort in my posts. Thanks. I'll think about it. Pfft... who am I kidding?!

My advice to you is to know when to lift off the pedal, brother. Have some fun, because sometimes less is more—for everybody. But screw all that, the ultimate bottom line...

You do you.

If you only drink long format replies with citations, well, that's how you like your tea. So keep on keeping on, but spare me the talking-down, you're better than that and it's not fun. Ultimately, no offense taken. Just kind of like, dafuq?!

Anyway... Pardon me, while I take a bite of this cracker and poop on the newspaper under my chair.

Endnotes:
1. Fresh Outta My Ass, Cheeks Vol. 1 and 2, between.

 

[NJturtlePower]

Sounds like some fair price estimates to me. ?

https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/tesla-cybertruck-pricing/

 

[uscbucsfan]

Sounds like some fair price estimates to me. ?

https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/tesla-cybertruck-pricing/

I think that's fair and the Quad or top of the line will be first, depending on battery production, but the Dual-motor will be the highest seller.

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