Mobileye CEO Criticizes Tesla's AI FSD 12 While One Wall Street AI Analyst Praises FSD 12

[scottf200]

OMG

People complain about Tesla calling FSD Beta and that the promises of delivery have not been hit. Here is the thing though. Tesla has never claimed that their system is anything above Level 2. And since it has been available to the public, it has always been labeled Beta.

Now let's look at Mobile Eye:

No one wants to say anything about them claiming to be "NEAR-COMPLETE" since 2016?

And I hear now that Mercedes is selling it's system as being Level 3. See what Zack and Jesse have to say about it:

I've been following all AP and FSD things for years. I have 10 of 1000s of miles on AP and FSD. Lot of people talk about it but don't have regular (or any) experience themselves.

It's 2016 was faked ... it is still pushed by influencers as doing all these zero disengagement drivers from X to Y.

I'm on a road trip and this latest FSD has been AWFUL. So many bad and incorrect turns. It goes down the highway at speed and then tries to take a turning lane that is only a couple hundred feet and the dives back on the highway. Many many errors around the towns as well.

They are so so far from "FSD" but tried selling it for $15K until people balked now dropped it to $12K. It is a decent L2 system but all the superfans make it sound like robotaxi.

The current hardware and awful b-pillar camera placement is inadequate it sure seems.

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[Crissa]

I've been following all AP and FSD things for years. I have 10 of 1000s of miles on AP and FSD. Lot of people talk about it but don't have regular (or any) experience themselves.

It's 2016 was faked ... it is still pushed by influencers as doing all these zero disengagement drivers from X to Y.

I'm on a road trip and this latest FSD has been AWFUL. So many bad and incorrect turns. It goes down the highway at speed and then tries to take a turning lane that is only a couple hundred feet and the dives back on the highway. Many many errors around the towns as well.

They are so so far from "FSD" but tried selling it for $15K until people balked now dropped it to $12K. It is a decent L2 system but all the superfans make it sound like robotaxi.

The current hardware and awful b-pillar camera placement is inadequate it sure seems.

The thing is, you don't need to fake it to have a zero disengagement drive. It just needs to be oversampled for that drive, and then hope nothing goes wrong. Shoot it a few times in the day when there's less traffic, and poof, you have your perfect video.

You live in Chicago. It's poorly sampled (and in my opinion, the roads suck rocks). I'm not surprised it does poorly there.

-Crissa

 

[CyberCowboy]

I grow tired of presentations which fluff one and are negative of others.

I expect them to think their method is the best. Of course.

But when rubber meets the road, Tesla (and GM and others) have more units on the streets learning than Mobileye, and Mobileye depends upon process patent trolling to keep their edge rather than a better product.

That I will be biased against.

-Crissa

PS, 'having an extensive database of signs' is not the same as 'reading'.

Well said Crissa! I don't have any experience with MobilEye as relates to a passenger vehicle, but I can say that unless the implementation is better than on my 45' motor coach...I'll pass...

 

[CyberCowboy]

I've been following all AP and FSD things for years. I have 10 of 1000s of miles on AP and FSD. Lot of people talk about it but don't have regular (or any) experience themselves.

It's 2016 was faked ... it is still pushed by influencers as doing all these zero disengagement drivers from X to Y.

I'm on a road trip and this latest FSD has been AWFUL. So many bad and incorrect turns. It goes down the highway at speed and then tries to take a turning lane that is only a couple hundred feet and the dives back on the highway. Many many errors around the towns as well.

They are so so far from "FSD" but tried selling it for $15K until people balked now dropped it to $12K. It is a decent L2 system but all the superfans make it sound like robotaxi.

The current hardware and awful b-pillar camera placement is inadequate it sure seems.

I say again, the implementation of MobilEye on my motor coach is FRIGHTENING! I use FSD quite often and I'm much more comfortable with Tesla's system. To be fair, I'm sure there are some differences in size (45' coach vs a passenger vehicle), but still...horrific performance...

 

[wtibbit]

I’m sorry, but NdGT wants to be a celebrity so bad. He doesn’t appear interested in all about the actual science business, just getting guest spots and cable shows.

The don’t ride horses on the streets, they go to the stables? These are the words of a man who NEVER gets out of big cities. I live in Southern California, a rather busy suburban area. Where I live, 9,000 sqft home lots are standard. There are condos in my area that are 7 digits in value. Guess what, you can go into the downtown area and see horses on the streets from time to time. During certain parts of the year, they are there on a regular basis. Are they the standard mode of transportation? Nope, but there are a few of them tied up next to the bar and barbershop on certain days. And his 20 year timeline might hold up in the urban areas, but in rural America, not so much,

Texas has more horses than any other state. I live in Texas, along with approximately 750,000 horses and over 30 million people - one horse for every 40 people. Most of those horses are located outside of urban areas but they are used by a small part of the population. Even though Texas is the most rural state in the US only 14% of its population is rural. (California has rural population of less than 10%). In all other states few horses are ridden by a small part of their population.

Here is the point of all those numbers. Horses are very rarely ridden on the street or road because horses being ridden anywhere is a statistically rare event compared to vehicles being driven anywhere. You can correctly say that you see horses "on the street/road"; however, the horse is NOT a significant means of transportation for our population, based on DATA. We are transported by cars and trucks - not horses. It's been increasingly that way since the 1920s.

Neil's message is simple and important. The US transformed from a horse-based transportation model and supporting industry to a motor-car model in a very short time; we can expect a similar fast (in historical terms) transformation from petrol-based transportation and industry to an electric-based one.

As an aside, it's too late for Neil to become a celebrity. He already is one.

I respect and support Neil and others for their effort to explain science and how science works to us all. We need them as a counter to the anti-science agenda being promoted by those who find it much easier to control and manipulate an ignorant, fuzzy-thinking population than one that informed, well-educated, and practices critical thinking.

 

[PilotPete]

Neil's message is simple and important. The US transformed from a horse-based transportation model and supporting industry to a motor-car model in a very short time; we can expect a similar fast (in historical terms) transformation from petrol-based transportation and industry to an electric-based one.

I may have not made my point clear enough. His statement was people DON’T ride horses on the street, they go to the stables. And the implication was, they went from “everyone does” to “No one does” in 20 years. And neither statement is completely true. Both are steeped in hyperbole. The scarcity of horses today is mostly an economic one, far and above lack of utility. People just can’t afford a horse in the urban and suburban areas, and the property doesn’t have the room or zoning to support one or more. And yes, I see them on the STREETS in downtown. Daily? No. Certain times of the year? I see a few. Does everyone have them? Nope, cost prohibitive.

Here is the danger, you don’t convince non-believers with hyperbole. You don’t do it with opinion. The only way to bring the majority to your side, is with indisputable FACTS.

Tesla has been very smart in how they market their product. They’re not trying to convince anyone of the need to transition. They are building cars that are convincing to drive, regardless of drivetrain. They are showing off all the benefits of BEVs, and going very light on the other side. Those that wish to contribute to the cessation of petrol cars on the road will pick Teslas because they are the best of the BEVs. Those that aren’t converted are picking Teslas because performance and price are better than anything else. In short, Tesla isn’t trying to convert anyone to zero emission, renewable energy, etc., they are converting people to BEVs because they are making a better product! If bringing all these people along is a benefit to the environment, some of the people don’t care. However, they’re driving Teslas anyway!

As gas prices climb, more people will switch, if for no other reason than economics. Climbing electric costs aren‘t doing anyone any favors, but with the price of solar dropping and becoming more efficient, the tide is turning. How fast can we make this transition? Well, if you leave it to the government, it will take forever. Infrastructure changes at this level could bankrupt the entire country if pushed too fast. And mostly because of politics. But once again, Tesla has a better idea.

Just as business moved away from giant mainframe computers and everyone just had a dumb terminal at their desk, to everyone has a full blown power station on their desk and we have harnessed the network to scale up our processing and storage even higher, so will our electrical network. Tesla is creating VPPs in Texas and now in California. By dividing up the power production, we don’t need all the massive grid infrastructure improvements. We don’t need trillions of taxpayer dollars to increase power production 2, 4 8, 10 fold. My HOA is going to consider becoming a VPP and producing over 100% of the electricity that our 425 homes use. And you can’t get that many people to agree just on environmental concerns. But you can convince them to make the switch on financial concerns! We received a “going away gift” from the developer when they finished the project. The HOA was going to build cabanas by the pool that no one wanted. I made the suggestion that we cover the clubhouse in solar panels to reduce our massive HOA electric bill, and now we are getting bids. I never used any of the following words; “Climate”, “Environment”, ”Global anything”, “Coal”, “Air Quality”, “Emissions”, or anything related. I spoke the universal language of MONEY!

Point is, Tesla made this possible with their products. “Build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door.” EM and company are doing that exact thing.

Jay Leno was asked what he thought of the move to electric years ago. He made the comment that when we moved from horses to cars, we elevated horses standing from “Tool” to “Pet”, and horses are the better for it. He said that ICE vehicles will never completely disappear, but they will become the “pets” of the well off, just like horses.

The answer is not regulation. Or the government making a mandate. The answer is, build a better product, and let the market FORCE all the OEMs to make the move, or perish. Tesla is putting on incredible pressure onto the OEMs Through their SALES. A 2035 mandate? Pssshhh. That’s a waste. Too many lobbyists in too many industries for that to even stand without getting pushed back. But, you could break 80% by 2030 if Tesla and a few others could make enough cars. Market forces will always be faster (and better) than regulation.

Yes, NdGT is a celeb. I didn’t say he wasn’t. I said it is what he wants. He has it, and he wants to keep it and build it. Is that an overall positive for the population? It doesn’t matter. I’m not a fan. purely a personal thing. Just not my cup of tea,

 

[Crissa]

His statement is as true as saying the world is round.

The world is round, if it were a marble you might notice it doesn't always roll straight. Sometimes.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

The only way to bring the majority to your side, is with indisputable FACTS

Oh if it were only so. ?

 

[PilotPete]

Oh if it were only so. ?

I didn’t say WHICH facts! In my HOA example, I converted most of the people over with FINANCIAL facts. You have to use the facts that are important to them, not to you. Fortunately, financial facts are important to most everybody. For me, the move to BEV came in the performance/cost facts. The rest just fell into place for me. I then realized there was really no downside.

 

[wtibbit]

I may have not made my point clear enough. His statement was people DON’T ride horses on the street, they go to the stables. And the implication was, they went from “everyone does” to “No one does” in 20 years. And neither statement is completely true. Both are steeped in hyperbole. The scarcity of horses today is mostly an economic one, far and above lack of utility. People just can’t afford a horse in the urban and suburban areas, and the property doesn’t have the room or zoning to support one or more. And yes, I see them on the STREETS in downtown. Daily? No. Certain times of the year? I see a few. Does everyone have them? Nope, cost prohibitive.

Here is the danger, you don’t convince non-believers with hyperbole. You don’t do it with opinion. The only way to bring the majority to your side, is with indisputable FACTS.
....

As gas prices climb, more people will switch, if for no other reason than economics. Climbing electric costs aren‘t doing anyone any favors, but with the price of solar dropping and becoming more efficient, the tide is turning. How fast can we make this transition? Well, if you leave it to the government, it will take forever. Infrastructure changes at this level could bankrupt the entire country if pushed too fast. And mostly because of politics. But once again, Tesla has a better idea.

Point is, Tesla made this possible with their products. “Build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door.” EM and company are doing that exact thing.

Jay Leno was asked what he thought of the move to electric years ago. He made the comment that when we moved from horses to cars, we elevated horses standing from “Tool” to “Pet”, and horses are the better for it. He said that ICE vehicles will never completely disappear, but they will become the “pets” of the well off, just like horses.

The answer is not regulation. Or the government making a mandate. The answer is, build a better product, and let the market FORCE all the OEMs to make the move, or perish..... Market forces will always be faster (and better) than regulation.
...

We disagree on why horses are scarce (and cars aren't). Some more horses would be owned if the cost and difficulty of ownership weren't so great. I know something about this having been a horse owner for more than a decade. But we both know the cost of owning a horse is not why horses were supplanted by automobiles for transportation; the horses and their supporting industry was replaced because, for nearly all transportation needs, automobiles are "a better mousetrap" than horses.

I suspect we're generally in agreement on each and every one of the points that Neil addressed in that short discussion. Here they all are:

• The horse-based transportation industry with all of its supporting services and products essentially disappeared within two decades when horses were replaced by automobile technology, except for those supporting the needs for the few remaining - mostly recreational - horse owners.
• There will be a similar shift from ICE powered vehicles to EV's within the near future and when it happens it will be done quickly, Neil saying, "When it's ready to go down, it's going down."
• Future generations may not care to drive at all, with the implication that Self Driving vehicles will satisfy them.
• Those people who do drive themselves in the future will do so as a recreational activity - similar to horse riding today - on facilities reserved for that use.

Neil did use some absolutes that weren't necessary, but he was probably just underscoring his point - hyperbole, yes - and didn't have the time to put nuanced, caveated details on it.

I don't think Neil was trying to convince anyone to change their mode of transportation, he was just making observations of changes that would happen and the speed of those changes. He clearly thinks it is inevitable.

Neil didn't discuss regulations or mandates; he made no mention of what was driving the change.

I agree with your other points about Tesla leading the way and driving the other manufacturers to move with far more effectiveness than anything the government can do.

I would point out that the auto industry notoriously dragged their feet on safety and fuel efficiency until those things were mandated by the government. That might have been different - at least for the fuel efficiency - if even one OEM declared that they were going to made this happen for their fleet. If that had happened then, as you say, the money-saving factor would have convinced the public and forced the rest of the OEMs to make the change. Today Tesla IS that OEM, as you said so well.

 

[PilotPete]

We disagree on why horses are scarce (and cars aren't). Some more horses would be owned if the cost and difficulty of ownership weren't so great. I know something about this having been a horse owner for more than a decade. But we both know the cost of owning a horse is not why horses were supplanted by automobiles for transportation; the horses and their supporting industry was replaced because, for nearly all transportation needs, automobiles are "a better mousetrap" than horses.

I suspect we're generally in agreement on each and every one of the points that Neil addressed in that short discussion.

My family has raised horses since before I existed. I grew up riding and showing horses. I grew up with the Winston Churchill quote “There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” being lived as a fact. I don’t disagree as to why the change occurred, the car was a better mousetrap. It offered things a horse never could. Only in the mountains and rural applications are horses better than cars. And we are in violent agreement on most of his points. I’m not sure what will occur first, the lack of desire to drive, or insurance/government no longer allowing you to drive (affordably). You summed it up better than I could, so thank you.

 

[CyberGus]

The most expensive horse I ever owned was given to me "for free"

 

[aishatuisaha]

Sorry, but my computer education and current experiences are going to step in here. Whether you see FSD getting to L5 or not is completely your personal bias and/or your misunderstanding of what is occurring.

I don’t care what company is involved, if you have dedicated the kind of resources that Tesla has in the past MONTH to AI learning, you are likely to leave everyone in the dust. The only way not to, is to be stupid in how you manage the resources. And of all the things I think EM is, stupid ain’t one of them. Think about it, 10,000 NVidia A100 processors, 10,000 H100 GPUs now online. And NVidia just updating the background software to DOUBLE the throughput of the H100. AND Dojo clusters are coming online. Your judgement of FSD is based on lines of code trying to cover every base, and even the YouTubers have been talking about how good the latest version is. But v12 is going to be AI driven (no pun intended), and that is creating a set of driving rules for FSD that is going to show exponential growth and capabilities. When you feed a “stop sign” video through, AI looks at how the stop sign was handled., AND how everyone else acted and reacted, AND the lane holding, and did they turn right or left, and how was the turn signal used, and…. and… and… it looks at and sees and learns from EVERYTHING. While you are training it on lane keeping on the freeway, it is learning what you and the other drivers are doing. It will self learn when a turn signal comes on, what to expect. Or brake lights, or debris on the road, or cones, or lane closures, or someone just being stupid and drifting over into your lane. And unlike you, it will be looking for all of this when it drives, 100% of the time, without looking down at the speedometer, or the radio, or… full attention all the time.

I’ve seen the very beginnings of AI driven flight assist stuff. And I’m here to tell you, the future is here, alive and well. I wouldn’t want to get into ACM against a AI opponent. It can see smaller hints and react faster than you or I could ever dream about. This is exactly what was needed to take them over the top on FSD. How long it takes them to get over the top is going to be measured in months and weeks, not years. L5 is going to ready in just a matter of 1-2 years, whether the regulators are or not! And, it may be less than a year, if they can force feed enough video through.

I completely agree with you. I also use AI and try to adapt to the modern world.

 

[igs]

Mobileye to End Internal Lidar Development


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mobileye-end-internal-lidar-development-113000028.html

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