Most Accurate Estimate of Current FS Orders

[Coltpete]

As of today there are actually around 118 total delivered from this forum alone (not every delivery posts on the delivered cars sheet, as well as not every order posts on the order delivery sheet either, but i have written some processes to review all posts by all users for mentions of delivery and/or order/vin and have maintained a separate more accurate list, to be published soon.

Thanks. I figured it might be a few off. I figured that would hopefully cancel out a similar percentage off on the orders list. Again this is just to get a ballpark idea. Real accuracy is impossible given what we have to work with

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[seadsmoney]

I think there are more like 1 million FS orders or more. I think they are asking everyone and still are. My invite is still open on second vehicle to order FS. I check that one daily as well

Data doesn't support this. FS Invites are trailing off and on course to reach zero in the next few weeks. See thread

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

Data doesn't support this. FS Invites are trailing off and on course to reach zero in the next few weeks.

LOL. And where did you get this data? Trailing off? is there a Tesla order data base that Tesla is giving this information out and or a letter they sent to the world saying "ok we stopped giving out orders for FS".? lol Nothing against you. It's all an assumption, a joke to think anyone knows anything but a good guess from OP. yet I do believe money rules all and Tesla needs it so orders be flowing out like Niagara Falls.

 

[seadsmoney]

where did you get this data? Trailing off?

check the thread
Feel free to produce a better estimate of invitations with better data
Hence the title of the thread

 

[Celiboy]

It seems that VINs aren’t 100% in order anymore. Apparently @greggertruck has a VIN in the 2100-2200ish despite someone else in CA getting a VIN in the 1600’s the same day. It’s really hard to say how many exactly they’ve produced if they are allocating someone a VIN in the early 2000’s while someone else gets 1600’s the same day.

Agreed. It was me and I received my VIN the day after @greggertruck and mine is ~380 below his. If anyone understands this please share.

 

[cgladue]

Thanks. I figured it might be a few off. I figured that would hopefully cancel out a similar percentage off on the orders list. Again this is just to get a ballpark idea. Real accuracy is impossible given what we have to work with

its more then a few its more like 20% which is a whole lot so just wanted to let you know

 

[Sleipnir]

Are you basing that off any data? I don't see anything supporting that this forum is over 1/8 of total orders.

I do think there has been a nice jump in production. Joe T over on X saw 80 trucks on the lot the other day. This was compared to the 30-50 he was seeing a few weeks ago. We'll see soon enough.

He’s got feels bro, like all the feels man.

I counted 90 in Brad Sloans vid yesterday.

 

[seadsmoney]

FS invitations - closed or closing
FS production - increasing!

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

check the thread
Feel free to produce a better estimate of invitations with better data
Hence the title of the thread

yep, I did. hence the previous post.

 

[greggertruck]

It seems that VINs aren’t 100% in order anymore. Apparently @greggertruck has a VIN in the 2100-2200ish despite someone else in CA getting a VIN in the 1600’s the same day. It’s really hard to say how many exactly they’ve produced if they are allocating someone a VIN in the early 2000’s while someone else gets 1600’s the same day.

Yea, I had made a post about how they've made 700 ish between my VIN and another I'd recently seen getting delivered and it got kinda wacky.

I do think they've made those 700, but several end up with QC holds and get reworked, thus the out of order VIN assignments. It's certainly wonky.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

Yea, I had made a post about how they've made 700 ish between my VIN and another I'd recently seen getting delivered and it got kinda wacky.

I do think they've made those 700, but several end up with QC holds and get reworked, thus the out of order VIN assignments. It's certainly wonky.

So You're saying there's Chance!!

 

[ideaXfactory]

What I've been doing is taking the orders shown on this site and going 10X.

Right now it's 1228 so my simple estimate is around 12,280.

So, therefore I think Tesla is heading on to at least 20,000 Foundation orders, maybe??

Just estimates. Not really science, just a statistical judgement...

 

[armywildcat]

I think we are closer to 10k FS orders. Production to 200-250 a week didn’t start until after the New Year. 6 weeks at an average of 250 to date = 1500 plus 500 before New Years= 2000 CT to date.
New orders for AWD still show an April delivery. 8 weeks until end of April at 500 average a week = 4000. Projected 6000-6500 AWD thru April. 30% of all orders are Beasts so 3000-3500 will not be complete until end of year.
Tesla will keep adding more until they run out of takers. The tracker probably captures 12-13% of all orders. 12% of AWD orders on the list have been delivered so far.
Trying to make the math still give me hope I will get mine before the end of March.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

I think we are closer to 10k FS orders. Production to 200-250 a week didn’t start until after the New Year. 6 weeks at an average of 250 to date = 1500 plus 500 before New Years= 2000 CT to date.
New orders for AWD still show an April delivery. 8 weeks until end of April at 500 average a week = 4000. Projected 6000-6500 AWD thru April. 30% of all orders are Beasts so 3000-3500 will not be complete until end of year.
Tesla will keep adding more until they run out of takers. The tracker probably captures 12-13% of all orders. 12% of AWD orders on the list have been delivered so far.
Trying to make the math still give me hope I will get mine before the end of March.

when did you get your email to order FS? and when you actually ordered the FS? I got my invite 12/8 and placed order 12/22. Haven't received a vin yet but looking at Deliveries, some are getting trucks with 12/19 orders placed. So any day now for me??? I think later in year.

 

[armywildcat]

when did you get your email to order FS? and when you actually ordered the FS? I got my invite 12/8 and placed order 12/22. Haven't received a vin yet but looking at Deliveries, some are getting trucks with 12/19 orders placed. So any day now for me??? I think later in year.

Email received and Ordered on 26 DEC. I would expect my VIN the first week of March

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