Five years to fulfill all current orders? Nooooo!

[cyberwulf]

Opinions?

As this is all (presumably) speculation, if dual motor config is 50% is it likely those will be first?

https://supercarblondie.com/tesla-c...-to-wait-up-to-five-years-to-get-their-truck/

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[COLAB]

I think over time Tesla knows how to produce its new cars and with its experience will do the right thing like other cars made, ramping up its manufacturing even faster and easier than everyone thinks.
We all know that speculation is all the rage these days, and often for the wrong reasons with people who are never satisfied with whatever we do and people who are positive, who bring up various comments just to talk for the sake of it!!!!
Wait and see !!!

 

[charliemagpie]

If the demand is there, production will scale to meet it. Whether it is new lines or new factory. This should be the narrative.

And I bet plans to reign in the wait times are afoot right now.
----------------
BTW, I think journalist are daft. Imagine being fixated on 5 years wait times, AND low production volume.

If so, would indicate a demand.

And yet, not consider new orders in the means time.. 5 YEARS worth of new orders tacked onto the end of the 5 years wait lol.

ASIF

 

[scottf200]

4680-wise tho it doesn't seem like they would have enough ... for the 350 & 500-mile range and filling the number of orders in a reasonable time frame.

• Telse Model Y is ~78 kWh and uses 830 of the 4680 cells.
  
  
• 2.56 times more for 500 mile Cybertruck (200 kWh / 78 kWh).
• Cybertruck 500 mile 200 kWh would require 2128 of the 4680 cells (830*2.56)
  
  
• 1.79 times more for 350 mile Cybertruck (140 kWh / 78 kWh).
• Cybertruck 350 mile 140 kWh would require 1485 of the 4680 cells (830*1.79)

Previous thread on the topic:
Cybertruck (Orders) Demand Would Take 3-4 Years Production to Fulfill Says Musk
Thread starter | Administrator | Jan 31, 2020
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-4-years-production-to-fulfill-says-musk.544/

 

[charliemagpie]

Yes,
I expect a CT ramp over the next 18 months. I do expect the 4680 being just another battery in mass production by then.

 

[CyberTW]

Will they allow a single person that has 10-50 reserved early to buy all of them? (I know the “Kilowatts” social has like 50). between people that have cancelled/will cancel, and depending on what they do with the same account buying multiple… might be quicker for us “late to the game” reservations..

But y’all know better than I do… what’s Tesla’s precedent for individuals who reserve a bunch like said above?

 

[Crissa]

No one has had a million preorders for a vehicle before.

It's totally conceivable, and yet, completely unprecedented.

-Crissa

 

[Brokerdmiller]

Opinions?

As this is all (presumably) speculation, if dual motor config is 50% is it likely those will be first?

https://supercarblondie.com/tesla-c...-to-wait-up-to-five-years-to-get-their-truck/

CT DELIVERY NEWS FLASH! A much better solution for a more realistic update on the elongated CT delivery saga. Is for the geniuses at Tesla to simply filter out all the initial (ridiculously low) "$100 Deposit Want To Be CT Owners - Dreamers" Hence, the deposit should be increased to at least $5K!! You/we will immediately ascertain a more realistic metric of where we stand in regards to the ACTUAL demand vs production delivery ratio. Hopefully the "King Genius X" Elon will take this under consideration? I'm just saying and what say you fellow CT enthusiasts?? Darryl

 

[TyPope]

CT DELIVERY NEWS FLASH! A much better solution for a more realistic update on the elongated CT delivery saga. Is for the geniuses at Tesla to simply filter out all the initial (ridiculously low) "$100 Deposit Want To Be CT Owners - Dreamers" Hence, the deposit should be increased to at least $5K!! You/we will immediately ascertain a more realistic metric of where we stand in regards to the ACTUAL demand vs production delivery ratio. Hopefully the "King Genius X" Elon will take this under consideration? I'm just saying and what say you fellow CT enthusiasts?? Darryl

That'd be great for those of us who can afford to plop down $5,000 on a vehicle. I don't think that makes me any less a "want to be" CT owner than someone who wants one but needs to finance most of the cost.

On the selfish side, Tesla should re-shape the line, shipping top-tier model first (quad, 500 mile range, FSD) and to do it by region so that Cybertrucks get out to the whole country rather than just around the factory, for instance. THEN, maybe I'll get mine quicker, being out here in Nebraska (I could drive to the factory and pick mine up if that speeds it up!) and wanting the baddest, fastest, longest range I can get! (even if I don't tow that often... I still want the range and to be more precise, I want the KwHs and V2G/V2L)

 

[Brokerdmiller]

Point taken for those who will be financing and/or leasing the CT. Regardless, Mr. X (EM) needs to proactively weed/filter out the masses who are "skewing" the ACTUAL CT Buyers vs Dreamers numbers?!? Hence, another simple solution. Preliminary financial applications with substainally higher conditional deposits should be on the table asap. Needless to say, if you're serious/authentic and have the financial means to follow through with the transaction what's your worry? As indicated, the metrics of realistic demand in parity with production delivery reporting will be more accurate. What say you CT enthusiasts?

 

[CyberTW]

Point taken for those who will be financing and/or leasing the CT. Regardless, Mr. X (EM) needs to proactively weed/filter out the masses who are "skewing" the ACTUAL CT Buyers vs Dreamers numbers?!? Hence, another simple solution. Preliminary financial applications with substainally higher conditional deposits should be on the table asap. Needless to say, if you're serious/authentic and have the financial means to follow through with the transaction what's your worry? As indicated, the metrics of realistic demand in parity with production delivery reporting will be more accurate. What say you CT enthusiasts?

I’m in. Like I said above, I am curious how they will handle people with multiple orders (5 up to 50). If they basically say you can order 1 on your account and they up the $100 to $1K, that might weed out a lot… I don’t know… I think the # of $100 reservations is a bit of a false number… how many of those already bailed? How many are people with multiple orders? Would Tesla limit one per customer?

 

[Regenshire]

Point taken for those who will be financing and/or leasing the CT. Regardless, Mr. X (EM) needs to proactively weed/filter out the masses who are "skewing" the ACTUAL CT Buyers vs Dreamers numbers?!? Hence, another simple solution. Preliminary financial applications with substainally higher conditional deposits should be on the table asap. Needless to say, if you're serious/authentic and have the financial means to follow through with the transaction what's your worry? As indicated, the metrics of realistic demand in parity with production delivery reporting will be more accurate. What say you CT enthusiasts?

They already have a system that works. When order invites go out, you will be asked to configure and put down a non-refundable deposit ($2500 most likely, like with other Tesla's in this price range). They are not going to want to complicate things and piss off their customers. Your suggestion would piss off a lot of people and be seen as a money grab if it was not attached to an actual order.

If people can't afford to buy one when their order comes up, then they wont go through with the order and it wont affect your place in line anyways.

Yes, a lot of those $100 deposits might not go through with the purchase, but why do you need to weed those people out now when it will naturally happen when they are invited to order?

 

[scottf200]

Yes, a lot of those $100 deposits might not go through with the purchase, but why do you need to weed those people out now when it will naturally happen when they are invited to order?

To see genuine interest vs a PR stunt. Make it $1000. If you can't afford a $1000 deposit then that is likely an indication you should not being getting a early-adopter brand new truck.

 

[LKP]

I think over time Tesla knows how to produce its new cars and with its experience will do the right thing like other cars made, ramping up its manufacturing even faster and easier than everyone thinks.
We all know that speculation is all the rage these days, and often for the wrong reasons with people who are never satisfied with whatever we do and people who are positive, who bring up various comments just to talk for the sake of it!!!!
Wait and see !!!

I agree. I only loosely look at these threads because the speculation and rumors abound. Tesla holds most things somewhat secret, so we’ll just have to wait to get the final sales price and delivery dates. Tesla might not even have firm pricing yet, as they have to ramp up their supply chain, and determine their actual production costs. We can only hope that it will be close to what they stated originally.

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