NEWS: Jim Farley Posts Lightning Sales Tripled vs. 1H 2022

[greggertruck]

Ford has delivered roughly 7,000 Lightning pickups in the US market this year so far.

It would appear QoQ, Ford Lightning sales are down, again.

4291 delivered Q123
Seemingly ~3000 in Q223

Do you think Cybertruck has an affect? Is it all rates?

What do you guys think?

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[CyberGus]

I think vehicle sales are very seasonal. I wouldn't read too much into 1 quarter.

I hope CT sales triple next quarter

 

[Crissa]

I think they're having supply issues.

They said a couple months ago they were putting out hundreds of trucks a week and were on track to ramp to their 70-140k production this year.

Are there ten thousand trucks in transit somewhere?

But these numbers make not beating their 2022 numbers seem possible.

-Crissa

 

[Gurule92]

Maybe they Osborned themselves with promise of other truck.

Or it could be CT.

I don't think it's a supply issue because all my Ford dealerships have em sitting on the lot.

 

[greggertruck]

I think they're having supply issues.

They said a couple months ago they were putting out hundreds of trucks a week and were on track to ramp to their 70-140k production this year.

Are there ten thousand trucks in transit somewhere?

But these numbers make not beating their 2022 numbers seem possible.

-Crissa

Q1 card was the fires and line closure, Q2 it'll be simply the supply chain.

Q3 though. That might be a whole other issues.

 

[Greshnab]

I think it is hilarious that they are rejoicing that that in a six month period they managed to get 21k trucks .. which is a good months production...

 

[greggertruck]

I think it is hilarious that they are rejoicing that that in a six month period they managed to get 21k trucks .. which is a good months production...

no dude.

7,000. MAYBE 7,000 trucks this YEAR so far. Not 21,000.

 

[Greshnab]

no dude.

7,000. MAYBE 7,000 trucks this YEAR so far. Not 21,000.

Laughs.. OHHH so a week and a halfs worth of production in six months.. WOOT lets have a party!!

 

[cvalue13]

Q1 card was the fires and line closure, Q2 it'll be simply the supply chain.

Q3 though. That might be a whole other issues.

are you confusing production with sales?

There’s 1-3 month lag between the former and the latter

Though the 1 month production start also included a shipment pause.

in any event, poor Ford is putting themselves in a pickle with folks like you.

On one hand, publicly they have reasons to need to talk up their production numbers and aspirations, because they want to solidify that they are legitimately producing the first BEV truck (at least among majors).

On the other hand, privately Ford is not trying to produce too many Lightnings, because in truth it’s a temporary, low volume, specialty offering that they’ll stop making (or at least selling many of) in only 18 months Months from now. It makes no sense to invest in serious ramp-up with this vehicle.

So it’s understandable and fair that folks like you are holding them to their public bluster. But under their breath, they’re saying “duh, of course we’re not.”

 

[azjohn]

Fords is losing money on every Lightning they sell no reason to increase production until at least they are breaking even. The ICE line of trucks will help them out until they can figure out how to streamline production. If they were smart they would eat their pride and hire someone who has experience with EV production

 

[HaulingAss]

Fords is losing money on every Lightning they sell no reason to increase production until at least they are breaking even. The ICE line of trucks will help them out until they can figure out how to streamline production. If they were smart they would eat their pride and hire someone who has experience with EV production

The Ford Lighting cannot be mass produced profitably without a re-design and, even, then it's going to be impossible to sell them at a profitable price point because the aerodynamics of an F-150 and the heavy weight of a ladder frame and big non-structural battery are not going to be fixed by a re-design without changing the entire design concept. The problem is poor aerodynamics and heavy weight require too expensive of a battery to achieve a marketable range and a re-design isn't going to do much to fix that. It will still be a heavy, rust-prone ladder frame, a body with aero worse than a rectangular brick and a non-structural battery acting as dead weight.

Ford is losing *huge* money on everyone they build , in part because the battery needs to be too big, a minor re-design, and an increase in production throughput, while cheapening up some of the features, is not going to fix the underlying problem.

Anyone who thinks the Lightning will be able to compete with the Cybertruck doesn't know what the word "compete" means. It's not competing if you have to price each one below the cost to produce just to move them. And that's exactly what Farley admitted they will have to do for years to come (2030 I think he said).

Most people, even many employees at Ford, have no idea how much they lose on every EV they make. It's unsustainable as gas sales start to decline. I see huge debt in Ford's future. The chances they can service that debt through the next recession are slim to none. Farley, as much as I like him (personally, not as a hands-on manager), will be gone by then. The problem is he's a businessman, not an engineer. You need to be both to effectively transition from gas to electric.

 

[HaulingAss]

I think they're having supply issues.

They said a couple months ago they were putting out hundreds of trucks a week and were on track to ramp to their 70-140k production this year.

Are there ten thousand trucks in transit somewhere?

But these numbers make not beating their 2022 numbers seem possible.

-Crissa

I don't see how it could be supply chain issues when their production goal since Jan 4, 2022 was 150,000 units annually. They knew how many they wanted to make, their suppliers knew how many they wanted to make, and they can no longer use COVID as a catch-all excuse:

Full Speed Ahead: Ford Planning to Nearly Double All-Electric F-150 Lightning Production to 150,000 Units Annually; First Wave of Reservation Holders Invited to Order | Ford Media Center
(Jan. 4, 2022)

Remember how we were told for years that legacy auto knew how to mass-produce vehicles profitably in the millions and, when they wanted to, they would just flip a switch and high-quality, low cost EV's would come flooding out of their factories and crush Tesla?

 

[Ogre]

It’s a truck with a bunch of compromises and (now) a large price.

I keep saying this, there is no magical “electric” vehicle market. Making cars or trucks run on electricity doesn‘t put money in people’s pocket to buy them. Trucks selling for $80,000 are uncommon. This is the sales volume you get when you price a truck at $80k.

 

[cvalue13]

The Ford Lighting cannot be mass produced profitably without a re-design and, even, then it's going to be impossible to sell them at a profitable price point because the aerodynamics of an F-150

Good thing Ford isn’t going to redesign the F150

 

[greggertruck]

are you confusing production with sales?

There’s 1-3 month lag between the former and the latter

Though the 1 month production start also included a shipment pause.

in any event, poor Ford is putting themselves in a pickle with folks like you.

On one hand, publicly they have reasons to need to talk up their production numbers and aspirations, because they want to solidify that they are legitimately producing the first BEV truck (at least among majors).

On the other hand, privately Ford is not trying to produce too many Lightnings, because in truth it’s a temporary, low volume, specialty offering that they’ll stop making (or at least selling many of) in only 18 months Months from now. It makes no sense to invest in serious ramp-up with this vehicle.

So it’s understandable and fair that folks like you are holding them to their public bluster. But under their breath, they’re saying “duh, of course we’re not.”

Well, Jim said “sales”… so… sales.

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