NEWS: Jim Farley Posts Lightning Sales Tripled vs. 1H 2022

[TBONO]

I don't see how it could be supply chain issues when their production goal since Jan 4, 2022 was 150,000 units annually. They knew how many they wanted to make, their suppliers knew how many they wanted to make, and they can no longer use COVID as a catch-all excuse:

Full Speed Ahead: Ford Planning to Nearly Double All-Electric F-150 Lightning Production to 150,000 Units Annually; First Wave of Reservation Holders Invited to Order | Ford Media Center
(Jan. 4, 2022)

Remember how we were told for years that legacy auto knew how to mass-produce vehicles profitably in the millions and, when they wanted to, they would just flip a switch and high-quality, low cost EV's would come flooding out of their factories and crush Tesla?

So we’re throwing shade at Ford for their ramp up ?
They’ve been shipping electric trucks now for over a year and they announced it a year and a half after Tesla did.

I saw a one at the trail head yesterday - looked great

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[HaulingAss]

It’s a truck with a bunch of compromises and (now) a large price.

I keep saying this, there is no magical “electric” vehicle market. Making cars or trucks run on electricity doesn‘t put money in people’s pocket to buy them. Trucks selling for $80,000 are uncommon. This is the sales volume you get when you price a truck at $80k.

I generally agree with that principle but remember the "Tesla stretch" people were doing when the Model 3 and Model Y were priced well above gas cars of the same size? If the product is superior enough, in terms of ownership costs, durability, cool factor, performance, handling, and safety, people that can afford a more expensive car will expand the market for cars in that price range and the same will be true in the light truck market.

While it's true that the Ford Raptor only sold somewhere around 30K or less annually, the price was around 100K and it basically only offered a bit more power and a much better suspension. You had to accept a lower towing and payload capacity and worse gas mileage and higher annual maintenance expenses as well.

The reason I bring up the "Tesla stretch" is because I think the Quad Motor Cybertruck will sell very well in the $80K range because it will offer so much more with very little, if any, compromise on things like towing/hauling capacity, range, annual maintenance, fuel costs, etc. The best seller by far will be the lower cost Dual Motor version with 300+ miles so I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just adding that a good enough product, one that is highly durable and tough on the exterior, can expand the price point rather considerably and sell at higher than boutique volumes.

The F-150 Lighting cannot sell at high prices in high volumes because it just doesn't offer much more than being an electric version of a mid-level F-150 while having less tow/haul capacity and less range. Balancing those negatives, you save on gas and maintenance and get more power. That's why it cannot sell at high volume for a huge premium, it doesn't offer enough more. It's basically an F-150 with an electric powertrain while the Quad motor Cybertruck offers enough awesomeness that it will sell well at prices and volumes a fully loaded F-150 can only dream of.

 

[Ogre]

I generally agree with that principle but remember the "Tesla stretch" people were doing when the Model 3 and Model Y were priced well above gas cars of the same size? If the product is superior enough, in terms of ownership costs, durability, cool factor, performance, handling, and safety, people that can afford a more expensive car will expand the market for cars in that price range and the same will be true in the light truck market.

While it's true that the Ford Raptor only sold somewhere around 30K or less annually, the price was around 100K and it basically only offered a bit more power and a much better suspension. You had to accept a lower towing and payload capacity and worse gas mileage and higher annual maintenance expenses as well.

The reason I bring up the "Tesla stretch" is because I think the Quad Motor Cybertruck will sell very well in the $80K range because it will offer so much more with very little, if any, compromise on things like towing/hauling capacity, range, annual maintenance, fuel costs, etc. The best seller by far will be the lower cost Dual Motor version with 300+ miles so I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just adding that a good enough product, one that is highly durable and tough on the exterior, can expand the price point rather considerably and sell at higher than boutique volumes.

The F-150 Lighting cannot sell at high prices because it just doesn't offer much more than being an electric version of a mid-level F-150 while having less tow/haul capacity and less range. Balancing those negatives, you save on gas and maintenance and get more power. That's why it cannot sell at high volume for a huge premium, it doesn't offer enough more. It's basically an F-150 with an electric powertrain while the Quad motor Cybertruck offers enough awesomeness that it will sell well at prices and volumes a fully loaded F-150 can only dream of.

“Stretch” only goes so far and only lasts so long. Thus the price “crash” at the beginning of the year.

I’m sure an $80k Quad motor Cybertruck will similarly sell well for some time. But ultimately you run out of people who can stretch. We’re also tacking on another $200 or so per month in payments due to higher interest rates which adds a bit of built in stretch to the equation.

 

[HaulingAss]

So we’re throwing shade at Ford for their ramp up ?
They’ve been shipping electric trucks now for over a year and they announced it a year and a half after Tesla did.

I saw a one at the trail head yesterday - looked great

Ford has consistently missed their EV production targets and it's not limited to the Lightning. In 2017 they said they would have 40 electric models by 2022. Where are they? That was pure BS. Ford has been planning on releasing an all-electric F-150 since 2008 where they displayed a working prototype at the SEMA auto show. That was 15 years ago, so they have had plenty of time to work on it.

Tesla hit their 2014 production target of 1/2 million EV's by 2020 even though people openly ridiculed it in public, including Ford and GM. They said it was pure fantasy, impossible.

Tesla didn't come up with the Cybertruck concept until 2018 and I'm not going to blame them for sharing it with us in 2019, before it was fully baked. Then the COVID supply chain problems caused them to delay it so they could use the computer chips and batteries to ramp Model 3 and Model Y higher. Tesla still brought it from concept to market faster than Ford and Tesla didn't even have a truck platform to shoe-horn an electric powertrain into. It was a much bigger development effort than the Lightning and Tesla did it in a much shorter timeframe. The delay will cause the Cybertruck to be a much better product than it would have if they had released it 18 or 20 months sooner, as they initially projected (before COVID hit).

I'm throwing shade at Ford's BS, not the speed of their production ramp up. They talk a big game and regularly fail to hit the number of electric models they claim they will (not even in the same ballpark) and the production volume of those models. Ford's EV projections make Tesla look like alter boys when it comes to doing what they said they would do.

 

[TBONO]

Ford has consistently missed their EV production targets and it's not limited to the Lightning. In 2017 they said they would have 40 electric models by 2022. Where are they? That was pure BS. Ford has been planning on releasing an all-electric F-150 since 2008 where they displayed a working prototype at the SEMA auto show. That was 15 years ago, so they have had plenty of time to work on it.

Tesla hit their 2014 production target of 1/2 million EV's by 2020 even though people openly ridiculed it in public, including Ford and GM. They said it was pure fantasy, impossible.

Tesla didn't come up with the Cybertruck concept until 2018 and I'm not going to blame them for sharing it with us in 2019, before it was fully baked. Then the COVID supply chain problems caused them to delay it so they could use the computer chips and batteries to ramp Model 3 and Model Y higher. Tesla still brought it from concept to market faster than Ford and Tesla didn't even have a truck platform to shoe-horn an electric powertrain into. It was a much bigger development effort than the Lightning and Tesla did it in a much shorter timeframe. The delay will cause the Cybertruck to be a much better product than it would have if they had released it 18 or 20 months sooner, as they initially projected (before COVID hit).

I'm throwing shade at Ford's BS, not the speed of their production ramp up. They talk a big game and regularly fail to hit the number of electric models they claim they will (not even in the same ballpark) and the production volume of those models. Ford's EV projections make Tesla look like alter boys when it comes to doing what they said they would do.

Hey, you’re entitled to your opinion but I’m not sure why we are hating on Ford

Elon respects them and they are delivering product

Tesla’s goal is to get EV’s manufactured at scale by all companies

considering there’s very few EV trucks out there I think only two right now Ford being one (don’t think hummer is a truck )and tesla been zero I’d rather focus energy on the positives of the cyber truck coming out — Ford is not the enemy or problem here

 

[HaulingAss]

“Stretch” only goes so far and only lasts so long. Thus the price “crash” at the beginning of the year.

I’m sure an $80k Quad motor Cybertruck will similarly sell well for some time. But ultimately you run out of people who can stretch. We’re also tacking on another $200 or so per month in payments due to higher interest rates which adds a bit of built in stretch to the equation.

I'm simply saying the price is not such a hard limit, it's a curve, and if the product is good enough, durable enough, cheap enough to maintain, and can do more things, it adjusts the price curve upwards. That doesn't ever go away, the recent "crash" of auto prices was due to rising interest rates and less consumer confidence.

 

[charliemagpie]

They are up against it, its that simple.

If the Lightning was their answer, they would have scaled up and apparently cut their losses. But they have not gone that way, indicating to continue would be throwing good money after bad.

They are back to square one, and their next project has to clearly be able to compete with the CT.

 

[HaulingAss]

Hey, you’re entitled to your opinion but I’m not sure why we are hating on Ford

Elon respects them and they are delivering product

Tesla’s goal is to get EV’s manufactured at scale by all companies

considering there’s very few EV trucks out there I think only two right now Ford being one (don’t think hummer is a truck )and tesla been zero I’d rather focus energy on the positives of the cyber truck coming out — Ford is not the enemy or problem here

I didn't say Ford was the enemy or the problem. In fact, I still have an F-150 that I bought new in 2009. I said their EV production projections are BS. That's not hate, it's just calling them out on the fact that they have consistently over-estimated their ability to hit EV prodction targets while Tesla has been amazingly on-point for a decade now.

Yet for some reason the media likes to pretend it's only Tesla that misses their targets, they largely ignore ALL of GM's and Ford's missed targets while ragging on Tesla if they are even a couple hundred units below projections made years previous.

I like Ford, I just wish their EV program was more advanced than it is, that they could help the transition to electric in a way commensurate with their size and scale, but that doesn't mean I'm going to gloss over their long history of missing EV production targets and then quietly pretending they never said those things.

I just don't see how they can be a big player in electrification going forward, when they are so inefficient at designing and manufacturing vehicles. It's not sustainable to keep selling them at a loss and a bankrupt company cannot accellerate electrification, once they are bankrupt. I'm afraid that's where they are headed and bullish projections about how many EV's they will have in 4 more years, or how many they will make next year, does not change my mind. Because I've been watching them for a long time now. Facts matter.

 

[Ogre]

Hey, you’re entitled to your opinion but I’m not sure why we are hating on Ford

Elon respects them and they are delivering product

Tesla’s goal is to get EV’s manufactured at scale by all companies

considering there’s very few EV trucks out there I think only two right now Ford being one (don’t think hummer is a truck )and tesla been zero I’d rather focus energy on the positives of the cyber truck coming out — Ford is not the enemy or problem here

Ford dragged their feet and came into the EV game only grudgingly after it was evident where the market was going. Their products, their marketing, pricing, and sales are all reflections of this.

I do think Farley in his ~4 years as CEO has done pretty decent, but as a company they are way behind.

 

[Greshnab]

Hey, you’re entitled to your opinion but I’m not sure why we are hating on Ford

Elon respects them and they are delivering product

Tesla’s goal is to get EV’s manufactured at scale by all companies

considering there’s very few EV trucks out there I think only two right now Ford being one (don’t think hummer is a truck )and tesla been zero I’d rather focus energy on the positives of the cyber truck coming out — Ford is not the enemy or problem here

I am not hating on Ford.. Honestly I would make fun of ANY Major car company that made a press release saying they had doubled their sales on a model.. when that "Doubling" was 7,000 units. That is what we expect from rivian etc.. NOT from a company with over 100 years in the industry.

 

[cvalue13]

Well, Jim said “sales”… so… sales.

So when you said “Q2 is only supply chain” you meant the “supply chain” from factory to sales floor?

That’s was a confusing way to describe distribution

 

[cvalue13]

While it's true that the Ford Raptor only sold somewhere around 30K or less annually, the price was around 100K

False

you just spew

 

[jerhenderson]

I don't see how it could be supply chain issues when their production goal since Jan 4, 2022 was 150,000 units annually. They knew how many they wanted to make, their suppliers knew how many they wanted to make, and they can no longer use COVID as a catch-all excuse:

Full Speed Ahead: Ford Planning to Nearly Double All-Electric F-150 Lightning Production to 150,000 Units Annually; First Wave of Reservation Holders Invited to Order | Ford Media Center
(Jan. 4, 2022)

Remember how we were told for years that legacy auto knew how to mass-produce vehicles profitably in the millions and, when they wanted to, they would just flip a switch and high-quality, low cost EV's would come flooding out of their factories and crush Tesla?

yes I remember that... and every one was a Tesla killer.

 

[TBONO]

I didn't say Ford was the enemy or the problem. In fact, I still have an F-150 that I bought new in 2009. I said their EV production projections are BS. That's not hate, it's just calling them out on the fact that they have consistently over-estimated their ability to hit EV prodction targets while Tesla has been amazingly on-point for a decade now.

Yet for some reason the media likes to pretend it's only Tesla that misses their targets, they largely ignore ALL of GM's and Ford's missed targets while ragging on Tesla if they are even a couple hundred units below projections made years previous.

I like Ford, I just wish their EV program was more advanced than it is, that they could help the transition to electric in a way commensurate with their size and scale, but that doesn't mean I'm going to gloss over their long history of missing EV production targets and then quietly pretending they never said those things.

I just don't see how they can be a big player in electrification going forward, when they are so inefficient at designing and manufacturing vehicles. It's not sustainable to keep selling them at a loss and a bankrupt company cannot accellerate electrification, once they are bankrupt. I'm afraid that's where they are headed and bullish projections about how many EV's they will have in 4 more years, or how many they will make next year, does not change my mind. Because I've been watching them for a long time now. Facts matter.

If we’re talking about EV programs in general, then I agree with some of your points in that regard. However, for talking about electric trucks, then I think that’s the pot calling the kettle black. I don’t think my post was clear, but my references more specific to trucks not EVs in general as I agree ford, GM and just about every main stream auto mfgr is way way behind - no question.

I also don’t think the press is just beating up on Tesla. Rivian has taken a tremendous beating in the press as has their stock.

 

[jerhenderson]

It’s a truck with a bunch of compromises and (now) a large price.

I keep saying this, there is no magical “electric” vehicle market. Making cars or trucks run on electricity doesn‘t put money in people’s pocket to buy them. Trucks selling for $80,000 are uncommon. This is the sales volume you get when you price a truck at $80k.

I'll disagree with the 'sales volume you get with 80k'..... it's the features it offers. Around here, 80k ICE trucks are a dime a dozen, and they're loaded with doodads. the Lightening can't really compete with them.

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