Ordered a second Cybertruck today!

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Tinker71

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122xxx CT orders since CT price went off line or a year ago either feels about right. There is not a huge incentive to put down $100 at this point. There will be a ton of viable competition and tons of production in 2028 or whenever these late reservation numbers come in.

If I understand correctly tesla assigned a sequential reservation # to each reservation regardless as if it was a SEXY or CT or solar roof etc. We know there have been more than 122000 orders of various Tesla products in a year, so Tesla must have changed their reservation system since then. That is the only explanation. That said, why? It has to make their database a little more complicated. Maybe they thought the crowd sourced counter was too accurate and disclosed too much proprietary data?

I don't think Tesla did anything nefarious at any time. 2000 reservations per minute from all over the world (or what ever rate they came in) and the system never crashed is impressive enough. The computer ordered reservations when they got them.
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CyberGus

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As noted above and elsewhere...
  • It is believed that Tesla will re-use RN's (cancelled/completed orders)
  • The RN's are otherwise sequential, but across all Tesla models

The figure of "1.3 Million" CT reservations is an extrapolation based on the crowdsourced spreadsheet. A calculation based on a few RN's will be inaccurate.
 

JBee

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The way I see the RNs being converted is as follows:
1) some RNs will disappear because reservation holders no longer want to wait or have found an alternative vehicle in the mean time
2) CT production starts and the first 50k-100k hit the roads in the first year. The result is many more people will get to see and touch the CT, resulting in most (over 80%) remaining CT RN holders wanting to convert their RNs into a actual CT purchase.
3) CT production increases to 400-500k a year, and takes 2-3 years to clear the backlog.

That would mean that orders placed now will unlikely result in a CT delivery until sometime in 2025-2026? Hopefully, I'll be on my 4th CT by then... bit of a bummer really. Will also mean the CT resale price will be high, probably higher than the new car price. Just like it is now.

If only we could get the MY in Australia already...
 

Crissa

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Tesla only uses the RNs for people who are waiting a long time: Pre-orders. Anyone who's allowed to configure, pays a nonrefundable, or pays the total, doesn't get an RN, they just get an order. This applies to out of stock, too, you just get an order, no reservation number.

We do know their load-splitting system sometimes splits out batches of RNs regionally and then returns them to the supply when unused, so not all numbers are given out sequentially.

So not every SEXY order - only those that weren't in a configurator like the Plaid Plus or Model Y in 2019 or a solar roof or... etc.

-Crissa
 


Tinker71

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As noted above and elsewhere...
  • It is believed that Tesla will re-use RN's (cancelled/completed orders)
  • The RN's are otherwise sequential, but across all Tesla models

The figure of "1.3 Million" CT reservations is an extrapolation based on the crowdsourced spreadsheet. A calculation based on a few RN's will be inaccurate.
Tesla only uses the RNs for people who are waiting a long time: Pre-orders. Anyone who's allowed to configure, pays a nonrefundable, or pays the total, doesn't get an RN, they just get an order. This applies to out of stock, too, you just get an order, no reservation number.

We do know their load-splitting system sometimes splits out batches of RNs regionally and then returns them to the supply when unused, so not all numbers are given out sequentially.

So not every SEXY order - only those that weren't in a configurator like the Plaid Plus or Model Y in 2019 or a solar roof or... etc.

-Crissa
Well this is new information to me from a pretty good source :), but why in the heck would you reuse a reservation number for a cancelled or fulfilled order? What other products are currently using the RN system? Why would you create a batch by region, that could be handled with a simple field in a database for sorting? Even if you did, wouldn't this be reconciled pretty quickly? Weekly?

I am going to guess, the few that actually cancelled their reservation didn't bother to update the crowdsourced spreadsheet. How accurate do you think the spreadsheet is for order. (not deliveries)

Maybe Tesla wants to protect the information so they are making the RN system nebulas to the outsider.
 

SolarWizard

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One thing I sincerely hope is that they will limit sales of to one truck per person for the first couple years.
not a chance. I ordered 10 within 20 minutes of the reveal (had siblings helping). As far as tesla knows they are all for various members of my family 😉
 

JBee

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One thing I sincerely hope is that they will limit sales of to one truck per person for the first couple years.
I intentionally ordered one per family member for that reason...besides they all desperately want one as well, but don't have the budget themselves to get one, seeing they only recently started driving.
 

Crissa

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Well this is new information to me from a pretty good source :), but why in the heck would you reuse a reservation number for a cancelled or fulfilled order?
I don't know. There is a practical limit to the number of numbers you can have.

What other products are currently using the RN system?
We know the Solar uses the same reservation system, and the Semi and Roadster. Other energy products usually don't, I guess because they just never thought they'd be able to service everyone at a price point.

Why would you create a batch by region, that could be handled with a simple field in a database for sorting?
There's different ways load-spreading works on the internet, but also, you need to have systems that can operate semi-autonomously when the central database is inaccessible. It's basically cloud stuff...

...But the process is remarkably like handing out a series of physical receipt books with different sequences to different human clerks at a store... And then reconciling the books when connection is re-established or the rush has died down.

Even if you did, wouldn't this be reconciled pretty quickly? Weekly?
Well, depends on how they're handed out and how often reconciliation happens. And sometimes something just sits in a cache until it's flushed, which can be... Well, however long the system can be concurrently operating.

I am going to guess, the few that actually cancelled their reservation didn't bother to update the crowdsourced spreadsheet.
I don't think you can delete data from the spreadsheet, and entry errors are probably rife.

How accurate do you think the spreadsheet is for order. (not deliveries)
Ordinal? Oh, within a few thousand. Regional distribution will make that a more messy, of course, if you're in a different country (like Canada).

Maybe Tesla wants to protect the information so they are making the RN system nebulas to the outsider.
Probably. More likely is they don't want the SEC to see it as a claim when it can't really be backed up. They could get in trouble. Also, it's just easier (for them) to have a single system they use repeatedly than make a new system for each thing.

-Crissa
 


charliemagpie

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I ordered 3. One in my name, and the others two, I put my kids names. (a year apart)


Jeez, we are clever dicks on here !!!
 
 




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