Possible total addressable market (TAM) in U.S. for Cybertruck (full-size & mid-size), CyberVAN, CyberSUV, Tesla Semi

[firsttruck]

There are a lot of vans out there.

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U.S. non-compact/sedan/hatchback vehicle market by truck types (pickup van SUV other-light-duty truck-tractors heavy-duty)

Number of U.S. Truck Registrations by Type ( years 1995 - 2019 )
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
https://www.bts.gov/browse-statisti...nal-transportation-statistics/number-us-truck

Year-2019​	​	Truck-Type​
158,352,117​	​	Total trucks​
48,320,784​	​	Pickups​
15,075,377​	​	Vans​
80,511,102​	​	Sport utilities​
75,515​	​	Other light duty (a)​
N​	​	Farm trucks​
2,758,682​	​	Truck tractors​
11,610,658​	​	Other medium/heavy (b)​

Notes:
Sums may not equal to total due to rounding.

Data for Farm trucks is no longer being collected as of 2013.

Data for Pickups, Vans, Sport utilities, and Other Light Trucks are for vehicles 10,000 pounds or less gross vehicle weight.

Description:
KEY: N = data do not exist.

(a) Other light includes all trucks under 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight excluding any listed Pickups, Vans and Sport utilities.

(b) Other medium/heavy includes all trucks over 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight excluding any listed Farm trucks and Truck tractors.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual Issues), table MV-9, available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics.cfm as of Feb. 16, 2021.

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[Ogre]

I think this is confusing as written. That number is the total number of trucks registered.

All told, Ford sold 834,007 pickups last year (2021). GM sold 865,822.

https://www.trucks.com/2022/01/11/gm-outsells-ford-pickup-truck-sales/

Annual sales is more interesting because that’s a better look at what kind of sales we can see. Annual pickup truck sales is in the ballpark of 2 - 2.5 million per year.

Though that might expand temporarily as the cost of operating an electric truck is so much lower it might accelerate the replacement cycle.