Pricing ramifications for Cybertruck - based on recent FSD and Model 3 pricing changes

[Tinker71]

FSD reduced to $12,000, Highland price is initially $500 higher than current M3. I think both of these are telling.
1.) Highland was supposedly cost reduction driven. It looks like an performance upgrade. It should cost less to build, but Tesla is going to charge more to start with for the newness factor and better range. I suspect there will be bump of sales, then the price will start to decline to be several thousand less than now.
2.) FSD is almost pure profit. Obviously few people were paying $16,000 for it. Many early CT reservations are at $6000 I think. I am in the top 3rd overall and the price changed to $8,000 it may have been listed higher. Sometime after that there was no price listed on CT reservations.

Elon has been a bit shrewd lately. I hate to be negative, but I think pricing will shockingly high to start.

1.) Tesla will want to re capture the $6000 price delta on the FSD on the first 200k units or so.
2.) Tesla will gradually lower prices over the next 2 years. The low price FSD reservations will be exhausted. Many people will initially pass on their reservations due to cost which will be fine for Tesla because they will no longer be obligated to sell FSD for $6000.

I think Tesla overvalues their FSD. (Besides it not being fully functional), Not everyone wants to be in the Robotaxi business, but they might want to take an occasional nap while driving. Tesla needs a solid policy on transfers. This should be easy.

1.) Pay XX for a life of car subscription. Say $8000.
2.) Pay XX plus $4000 to make the subscription transferrable for the next 10 years.
3.) The commercialization value is captured through the Robotaxi App on a per transaction basis. (this keeps the price of the basic FSD down)

I do think it is interesting that Tesla has not discussed transaction cost. They are shrewd and getting shrewder on the way to a 1000% valuation gain.

I like my reservation number 600k ish. I think I am in a sweet spot for price and maybe some better battery tech.

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[WormtownKris]

That is a much refreshed and improved Model 3 for essentially the same price. Most/ many expected a higher price jump for better range, creature comforts and a fresh look, regardless of if it costs Tesla more or less to build it.

Reveal night FSD was $7,000, not $6,000.

Tesla might well finesse the CT price a bit over the first two years of rolling out, but it would be a sea change for them to gouge the earliest reservations and first buyers. Never have before and I very much doubt they do it now. If the Model 3 Highland was starting at $62k you'd have a point. But at ~$42k I feel it shows the opposite.

 

[bwhntr78]

I think the huge price reductions of the x and s are bigger news. The x, which is low volume and has many premium features can now be had for just under 80k and qualifies for the tax credit. That news has me more hopeful than I've been in a long time that the tri motor (or whatever 500 mile range version they ultimately release) will be priced under that threshold as well.

 

[charliemagpie]

The $12,000 is a good hook for all those who saw Elons FSD broadcast. Perhaps in the coming weeks, more V12 updates should net anyone who was 50/50.

I don't expect this price once V12 is ready for Robotaxi.

Tesla is ready to move the extra production after the recent line upgrades. Giga Austin was full of new cars ready to be moved out today. Also, Shanghai and Germany will be looking at a very busy 4th qrt.

Overall, today feel's like Tesla is preparing the groundwork to go the next level.

The iceberg is rising.

 

[CyberGus]

2.) FSD is almost pure profit.

Sure! Pure profit!

Minus a billion or so.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/...alongside-nvidia-gpus-for-100-exaflops-of-ai/

 

[Tinker71]

Sure! Pure profit!

Minus a billion or so.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/...alongside-nvidia-gpus-for-100-exaflops-of-ai/

Well the hardware is mostly there on every vehicle and FSD programming for one vehicle is nearly the same cost for a million.

The trick for Tesla will be threading the needle with the HW3/4 and camera upgrades for the older cars out there without getting sued too bad. I think they think Dojo and machine learning will be able to adjust to the different hardware out there overtime with better data. Fending off the wrongful death/injury cases right or wrong will also be a major expense.

I think the thing we need to remember is the new cars will soon outweigh the entire prior fleet and some of the early cars are all ready retiring themselves. (crashes, range reduction etc.)

This is uncharted territory for sure.

 

[Tinker71]

That is a much refreshed and improved Model 3 for essentially the same price. Most/ many expected a higher price jump for better range, creature comforts and a fresh look, regardless of if it costs Tesla more or less to build it.

Reveal night FSD was $7,000, not $6,000.

Tesla might well finesse the CT price a bit over the first two years of rolling out, but it would be a sea change for them to gouge the earliest reservations and first buyers. Never have before and I very much doubt they do it now. If the Model 3 Highland was starting at $62k you'd have a point. But at ~$42k I feel it shows the opposite.

Ask folks that bought a M Y. 14 months ago.

 

[batlag]

Has anyone seen any evidence in Tesla's track record that they'll actually honor the original $7k FSD pricing for those of us who snagged an early reservation? I'm hoping so, but I just don't know.

 

[WormtownKris]

Ask folks that bought a M Y. 14 months ago.

But they've been selling Model Ys since early 2020. Mid-2022 is more than two years after release, and there is no order backlog in North America. I never suggested that prices do not move. But you seem to be suggesting above that at initial release they will jack up the price of the CyberTruck, and then back that down over time. They have yet to do that on any vehicle release.

The "limited founders edition" shenanigans where you pay an extra $25k for the first edition, which has different wheels and a commemorative pinstripe is a ploy that other OEMs use, not Tesla. They will hit profitability by selling a lot of trucks, not by selling a few trucks for a lot of money. If they launch at $90k, many potential buyers will cross the CT off their list and never look back.

It's about capturing significant market share year after year. Not gouging the most ardent fanatics and then becoming an overpriced niche vehicle. At number 600k you might very well have more battery options. But I would be very surprised if you see a much better sale price.

 

[canyoncarver]

FSD reduced to $12,000, Highland price is initially $500 higher than current M3. I think both of these are telling.
1.) Highland was supposedly cost reduction driven. It looks like an performance upgrade. It should cost less to build, but Tesla is going to charge more to start with for the newness factor and better range. I suspect there will be bump of sales, then the price will start to decline to be several thousand less than now.
2.) FSD is almost pure profit. Obviously few people were paying $16,000 for it. Many early CT reservations are at $6000 I think. I am in the top 3rd overall and the price changed to $8,000 it may have been listed higher. Sometime after that there was no price listed on CT reservations.

Elon has been a bit shrewd lately. I hate to be negative, but I think pricing will shockingly high to start.

1.) Tesla will want to re capture the $6000 price delta on the FSD on the first 200k units or so.
2.) Tesla will gradually lower prices over the next 2 years. The low price FSD reservations will be exhausted. Many people will initially pass on their reservations due to cost which will be fine for Tesla because they will no longer be obligated to sell FSD for $6000.

I think Tesla overvalues their FSD. (Besides it not being fully functional), Not everyone wants to be in the Robotaxi business, but they might want to take an occasional nap while driving. Tesla needs a solid policy on transfers. This should be easy.

1.) Pay XX for a life of car subscription. Say $8000.
2.) Pay XX plus $4000 to make the subscription transferrable for the next 10 years.
3.) The commercialization value is captured through the Robotaxi App on a per transaction basis. (this keeps the price of the basic FSD down)

I do think it is interesting that Tesla has not discussed transaction cost. They are shrewd and getting shrewder on the way to a 1000% valuation gain.

I like my reservation number 600k ish. I think I am in a sweet spot for price and maybe some better battery tech.

The % of takers on FSD is going to continue to be small until it is bulletproof enough so you have a couple of drinks at the bar and have the vehicle safely and legally get you home.

 

[CyberJustice]

think Tesla overvalues their FSD. (Besides it not being fully functional)

This is spoken like someone who has never used FSD. I can never go back to a car that doesn't have FSD given how much it's changed my driving behavior.

The price reduction for FSD is a simple reason, V12 is a complete breakthrough and a rewrite which will take 6 months for HW4 cars to train so they're offering a discount because it's not fully functional yet.

 

[Tinker71]

This is spoken like someone who has never used FSD. I can never go back to a car that doesn't have FSD given how much it's changed my driving behavior.

The price reduction for FSD is a simple reason, V12 is a complete breakthrough and a rewrite which will take 6 months for HW4 cars to train so they're offering a discount because it's not fully functional yet.

Even if it works really well the average US consumer will not spend $16 or $12k. They are just trying to get to work and back for a reasonable price.

 

[CyberJustice]

Even if it works really well the average US consumer will not spend $16 or $12k. They are just trying to get to work and back for a reasonable price.

That's not true, the average consumer also works from home, have families, go on road trips, and are looking for convenience. You can either buy a model 3 + FSD for 50K or buy a model 3 for 35K + FSD subscription. Either one is affordable from today's standards.

 

[Tinker71]

That's not true, the average consumer also works from home, have families, go on road trips, and are looking for convenience. You can either buy a model 3 + FSD for 50K or buy a model 3 for 35K + FSD subscription. Either one is affordable from today's standards.

I think you have distorted frame of reference. The 50th percentile can hardly afford a Model 3. Let alone a $12-16k adder.

 

[Arctic_White]

Sure! Pure profit!

Minus a billion or so.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/...alongside-nvidia-gpus-for-100-exaflops-of-ai/

Tesla is going to spend billions of dollars developing, improving, and perfecting their FSD irrespective of the take rate on the FSD software.

So by lowering the price of FSD, the demand should go up. That, in essence, is "pure profit."

At $12K USD, FSD isn't quite cheap but not that bad either.

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