Reservation Dropout Percentage

[cyberstalker]

? Hmmmmmm.....sounds high, but part of me hopes you're right. That would bump me up by several months!

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[JBee]

Another thing: I think the drop out rate will halve after the first 10-20k CTs hit the road. Everyone who sees one in the flesh will go through with the reservation if they can, and many more orders will be added as well.

 

[Ogre]

I don’t feel like I could make a reasonable guess on dropouts. I’d put it at least in the 10-20% ballpark.

Something a lot of people haven’t considered is there have been a lot of layoffs in the past year. I think between 50,000 - 100,000 people in the tech industry. Not sure if a lot of others are impacted, but lots of people at prime income earning age & also right into the meat of Tesla customer base.

That plus interest rates is going to have some impact.

I’m still convinced there are going to be a lot of people who will test drive it or even buy them and decide it’s way too big for their needs.

 

[Ogre]

80% dropout rate for the first 193,999

And 20% are international orders.

 

[cvalue13]

So the reservations still stand, they just won't be served until CT production gets there and vehicles are assigned overseas. That is not the same as dropping out

sure, it’s not the same as “dropping out”

but I took the OP’s question to at bottom be about how many numerical reservations are phantom (at least for the first few years)

 

[Crissa]

I don’t feel like I could make a reasonable guess on dropouts. I’d put it at least in the 10-20% ballpark.

Something a lot of people haven’t considered is there have been a lot of layoffs in the past year. I think between 50,000 - 100,000 people in the tech industry. Not sure if a lot of others are impacted, but lots of people at prime income earning age & also right into the meat of Tesla customer base.

The unemployment rate is still super-low, though, even with the layoffs.

-Crissa

 

[CyberJustice]

Given the economy now, there will be a huge drop in conversion. I'm still debating if I should buy it as an additional vehicle or sell my Model X and buy it. My reservation # is around 20K, so there might even be a chance of flipping it.

 

[TyPope]

Plus, Tesla will cancel your order if they believe you are going to flip it.

 

[Ogre]

Plus, Tesla will cancel your order if they believe you are going to flip it.

If you flip a couple vehicles, there is a chance you will get blacklisted.

They don’t try and pre-empt it though. At least I haven’t seen any cases of this.

 

[DMC-81]

I'm sure when Tesla starts deliveries, we will have someone set up self-tracking actual delivery versus reservation number and fairly quickly be able to determine this statistic.

As for me, I hope that it is at least on par with previous models. There is a high chance that my reservation will convert to a purchase, barring a significant price increase.

 

[Sirfun]

Maybe, but they were also placed longer ago and more likely to have lost their contact info. Of course first 50K are all first-night reservations, too.

-Crissa

I put in my reservation about 1 hour after the online reveal, after I saw ride along videos, I was hooked. But, my reservation is #39,xxx. At the time of the reveal there was a large percentage of people thinking Robotaxi's were highly possible by the time of delivery. This had lots of people making multiple reservations. In addition to the possibility of lots of those reservations being drop-outs, there is the possibility that Tesla will not honor several of those reservations also. I would be surprised if there's even 75% take, in the first 100,000 reservations.

 

[greggertruck]

Do we have a general guess of the normal “dropout” percentage from those who reserve vehicles? Is it safe to assume that 20% of the people who’ve reserved a CT won’t actually purchase the vehicle? $100 is such a small amount to reserve a place in line, but I’m guessing that a significant number of people won’t go through with the $50-100k purchase when the time comes.

I have a confession to make.

I made a Silverado reservation the other day. $100. They took it. Easy. So easy. But like, not as easy as the Cybertruck. I've gotten a few emails since then. But I've responded to nothing. I have no intention to go through with my purchase. I almost immediately regretted it. Like why'd I do that? Whatever. JIC. i got a reservation.

I think there will be more than 20% who cancel. Multiple times more. When the truck was a $40k mindf%ck... Lots of bro dude mans plunked down $100. Some peer pressure, some serious.... But that was over 3 years ago. Needs have changed, landscape has shifted. You can very simply access a Lightning now. VERY simple. No mark up. In fact, by summer I bet you see them even at discount. Not cause "Cybertruck is here and it's crazy".

It's simply because the market has settled, and again - landscape has shifted.

TLDR;

I think that less than 50% of people will go through with their purchase they reserved, whenever they reserved it. This isn't cause it costs more... It's just because we've seen 2 different "affordable" models come out from Tesla and seemingly 60% of people canceled their reservation, for whatever reason.

It will be massively successful. It will be crazy. But it won't be super insanely hard to get a Cybertruck by summer of 2025.

 

[charliemagpie]

Definitely there will be a shortening, so whatever our number, we will be further up

But if you haven't ordered, BEWARE. I reckon the line is going to stretch to near infinity when released.

 

[slomo]

Plus, Tesla will cancel your order if they believe you are going to flip it.

Yes, Tesla is unlikely to be selling multiple units to the many people with that type of early order.

The resale market is likely to be wild and then fall off a cliff.

It will be interesting to see if Tesla does some prioritization of current owners.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Curious how so many quote their # in line with conviction when many long time members are calling the reservation list bogus. I reserved spring of 21 and subtracting the numbers puts me 2.5M back in line

It's a guesstimate. Void of any concrete info, we use it as an approximation with a giant caveat.

It says approx 1 millionth for me, but the math on their tracker is all based on a wild assumption of how the reservation numbers work. Add on top of that I kinda agree with some of the larger dropout percentages being thrown out here for many of the same reasons, and yeah the number that tracker gives me is basically bs, but since there is no actual information, it's a number I use with an asterisk, just to have some timeline for expectations in my head. Can't speak to why anyone else would put actual merit to the tracker timelines.

Everyone guessing to make the time go by!

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