Same old story on CT update

[Crissa]

One thing is for sure: if Tesla are struggling with keeping up with demand and are production constrained due to supply chain shortage, then you can bet that other companies are too.

Exactly. There's no way they can capitalize on Tesla's delay. I can't even get a reservation for an E-Silverado, let alone buy one.

(I do wonder about the focus on Optimus though... I think Elon either wants to accelerate to an economy where humans have more free time/less suffering plus enjoying the benefits that labour brings, or he's worried about some sort of economic collapse... either way it was a bit odd.)

It was barely mentioned in their prepared remarks, that was mostly investor questions. As a project it's this: They have industrial vision down pat. What else can they use it in? As a project, it's sexy and motivates AI and robotics engineers - which is who they need to make their cars, factories, and FSD come to reality.

My spouse works for a company and is implementing today a halo project she was hired on to do over 15 years ago. But in the meanwhile she fixed so many this with their system and did the brute force coding they needed while still keeping up on this grand vision.

The robot is something that motivates hires, like she's motivated by her long-term project.

(Edit: I also wonder why they "leaked" the new CT prototype. What was that about!? Just got everyone hyped about the roadmap for no damn reason... at least give us some decent video footage of someone having a real good poke around or something... that was a bit annoying tbh.)

There's no photos in the earnings call.

-Crissa

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[Idea Of The Day]

As Model Y owner I'm beginning to question , if I made mistake canceling my Ford reservation?

I think it depends on how far on the list you were and how much you need a truck vs an SUV.

It will take both companies quite a while to reach the end of their reservation lists, so in terms of actually getting a truck any time soon, a low position on one list trumps a high position on the other.

I have a dual motor CT reservation in the 80K range, which could be another 2-3 years since they'll definitely make the quad and tri-motor versions first.

I guess my position on Ford's list was pretty decent.

 

[QuanTim]

It was barely mentioned in their prepared remarks, that was mostly investor questions.

Agree. But it was odd that it came up in Elon's "unprepared" opening remarks. Especially odd since he raised this after such a long pause, and the fact that he prefaced it with "in terms of priority of products I think the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the optimus humanoid robot" followed be another long pause. So it was either a slip on his behalf (i.e. something he wasn't supposed to say on this call) or they are genuinely prioritizing that over the equally in-development (but most probably further along) CT. I hope the robot isn't prioritsed over CT, because as much as a humanoid robot sounds cool, I don't get to ride one* up and down any mountain anytime soon!

*get your minds out of the gutter you lot!

 

[Crissa]

Agree. But it was odd that it came up in Elon's "unprepared" opening remarks. Especially odd since he raised this after such a long pause, and the fact that he prefaced it with "in terms of priority of products I think the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the optimus humanoid robot" followed be another long pause. So it was either a slip on his behalf (i.e. something he wasn't supposed to say on this call) or they are genuinely prioritizing that over the equally in-development (but most probably further along) CT. I hope the robot isn't prioritsed over CT, because as much as a humanoid robot sounds cool, I don't get to ride one* up and down any mountain anytime soon!

*get your minds out of the gutter you lot!

What it means, is that the Cybertruck is done, major development-wise. The engineers assigned to it are merely matching it with parts that are available, but installing the rest of the ramp capacity for Model Y is higher.

The thing they're keeping the design studio guys working on is the robot. That makes them excited and keeps them busy during the relatively boring ramp of the factory. There's been clues they may be using this AI with their robots already in the factory - to many for their robots don't use the standard validation marks for this to be coincidental.


This is someone who, when the configurator was open, had two years two update their configuration. If they'd updated it before, they probably wouldn't have had this issue. But they're sitting on an original price $18k lower in their configuration.

We don't have a configurator, so we're not even there.

-Crissa

 

[Dusty]

What it means, is that the Cybertruck is done, major development-wise. The engineers assigned to it are merely matching it with parts that are available...

Here's a quote from Musk...

There's a lot of new technology in the Cybertruck that will take some time to work through. And then, there's a question of like, what's the average cost of Cybertruck and to what degree is that affordable

I want to be positive too. But, they're not done major development. In his latest "I've been driving" tweets, he referred to the latest CT version as "the prototype", not a beta or alpha.

 

[Halemarine]

I had two CTs on order, one 77K Dual Motor and Single Motor at 675K. Just canaled the SM version. I am disappointed!

 

[Mini2nut]

Cybertruck delay? You can thank the state of the art 4680 battery cells and lack of computer chips.

My prediction is Q3 of 2023 before we see volume CT production.

 

[hridge2020]

How far back are you in the line? Gonna hafta be in the first half to even get a Lightning before 2024...

If you're a first day order like @Idea Of The Day or Transport Evolved, you'll prolly get it this year. Maybe.

-Crissa

 

[hridge2020]

I think it depends on how far on the list you were and how much you need a truck vs an SUV.

It will take both companies quite a while to reach the end of their reservation lists, so in terms of actually getting a truck any time soon, a low position on one list trumps a high position on the other.

I have a dual motor CT reservation in the 80K range, which could be another 2-3 years since they'll definitely make the quad and tri-motor versions first.

I guess my position on Ford's list was pretty decent.

Can build a truck while you wait too... lol

 

[Crissa]

I want to be positive too. But, they're not done major development. In his latest "I've been driving" tweets, he referred to the latest CT version as "the prototype", not a beta or alpha.

A) Just because you have the design, and it should save you money, doesn't mean when you go to buy parts, those parts are cheap. Sometimes the fewer parts are more expensive to buy, even if they weren't the most expensive to make. Right now, that's where the Cybertruck is: Trying to nail down the parts so that their price matches their cost.

B) 'prototype' can mean either 'the prototype' aka, the first of a lineage or 'the latest prototype' meaning any car in alpha or beta design phases. It ceases to be 'a prototype' only when the model goes into production. Prototypes are 'stuff not yet in production or being made to validate a production line'.

-Crissa

 

[Idea Of The Day]

Can build a truck while you wait too... lol

WOW... I LOVE that! The "Truckla"

 

[Bill906]

A) Just because you have the design, and it should save you money, doesn't mean when you go to buy parts, those parts are cheap. Sometimes the fewer parts are more expensive to buy, even if they weren't the most expensive to make. Right now, that's where the Cybertruck is: Trying to nail down the parts so that their price matches their cost.

B) 'prototype' can mean either 'the prototype' aka, the first of a lineage or 'the latest prototype' meaning any can in alpha or beta design phases. It ceases to be 'a prototype' only when the model goes into production. Prototypes are 'stuff not yet in production or being made to validate a production line'.

-Crissa

To add to that. I don't think you can move beyond "prototype" until it is made with production parts. I'm guessing they haven't cast any castings yet and are building the front and rear assemblies by hand. I could be wrong on this, but I don't think they can have a beta until they have cast the front/rear assemblies.

 

[Cybertruckee]

Yup, we and the other stockholders are right, Elon should stop yapping and just build those dang trucks.

Meanwhile, I'm realizing the wisdom of getting a reservation for F150 Lightning.

And then we continue to hemorrhage with Tesla stock price dropping like a rock with the analyst seeing Musk's diversionary tactics of looky shiny object robot and basically admitting that he lied when he said before that Tesla don't have chip shortage problems.

 

[Crissa]

At no point did Elon say Tesla did not have a chip shortage problem.

-Crissa

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