Same old story on CT update

Mr. Keys

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But like I said, it is dependent on, are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars.
The above statement from Elon is such BS. If they are resource constrained where they can only produce lets say 500k cars because of parts, then that's EXACTLY when the focus should move to building out a new assembly line for Cybertruck, since it would be slow to ramp up and work out the kinks. They could then scale CT up along with the parts shortage getting better. This is literally the perfect time to be building out the CT line!! Not doing so is simply a short term money grab for margins. Tesla never used to be like that :(

As for Elon's other comment about the focus to Optimus, and hopefully 2023 for Cybertruck, while a bot is cool and important, you can't just decide to change priorities after you've collected 1 million+ reservations and already delayed a year. Elon has a responsibility to be running at full speed on Cybertruck right now, full stop.
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Quicksilver

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The above statement from Elon is such BS. If they are resource constrained where they can only produce lets say 500k cars because of parts, then that's EXACTLY when the focus should move to building out a new assembly line for Cybertruck, since it would be slow to ramp up and work out the kinks. They could then scale CT up along with the parts shortage getting better. This is literally the perfect time to be building out the CT line!! Not doing so is simply a short term money grab for margins. Tesla never used to be like that :(
How do we know that they aren't doing this?
I'm pretty sure that space not occupied by the Y assembly line is not going to be empty.
They will build the CT line, systemize it and wait for the go ahead to start final production and ramp up. They may even build a bunch of mules to send for testing, evaluation and certification by the powers that be.
The drone footage shows massive amounts of building materials and machinery being delivered 24/7. It is not just sitting there. It is being installed and used.
I don't know how many shifts they are running now but probably at least two.
Lots of workers will come in to get overtime by working on the CT line when they're not building Y's.
 

ED_SFO

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The above statement from Elon is such BS. If they are resource constrained where they can only produce lets say 500k cars because of parts, then that's EXACTLY when the focus should move to building out a new assembly line for Cybertruck, since it would be slow to ramp up and work out the kinks. They could then scale CT up along with the parts shortage getting better. This is literally the perfect time to be building out the CT line!! Not doing so is simply a short term money grab for margins. Tesla never used to be like that :(

As for Elon's other comment about the focus to Optimus, and hopefully 2023 for Cybertruck, while a bot is cool and important, you can't just decide to change priorities after you've collected 1 million+ reservations and already delayed a year. Elon has a responsibility to be running at full speed on Cybertruck right now, full stop.
They cannot build out a line for an unfinished prototype. I'm sure a million little parts they gotta figure out, design and engineer. Definitely not as easy as saying let's just build this thing. I do think they have a general idea...but also let's go back to the drawing board in order to make the CT a financially viable product for them and consumers. I don't see this truck costing less than $70k base trim unless they remove air suspension and rollable tonneau cover and rear wheel steer with 1 motor.
 
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They cannot build out a line for an unfinished prototype. I'm sure a million little parts they gotta figure out, design and engineer. Definitely not as easy as saying let's just build this thing. I do think they have a general idea...but also let's go back to the drawing board in order to make the CT a financially viable product for them and consumers. I don't see this truck costing less than $70k base trim unless they remove air suspension and rollable tonneau cover and rear wheel steer with 1 motor.
It is surprising to me that people donā€™t pick up on the subtle (and not so subtle) hints that Tesla is constantly ā€œleakingā€ to give all us eagerly awaiting customers some kind of news.
There is a new prototype just delivered to Giga Texas. Elon (and now Joe Rogan) have driven it, both remarking that it is crazy good. Pre-validation production IS ā€œworking on itā€ if not at the pace we would hope but I, as a reservation holder, would prefer measured, intentional, advancement toward the goal of their ā€œtechnological bandwagonā€ rather than break-neck speed resulting in a clown car.
Elon also said that some products deserve their own day to talk about because they merit more attention than a couple sentences at a quarterly earnings report. I would agree that the CyberTruck is in that category!
Lastly, things worth having take time to achieve. It takes 6 years to obtain a pharmacy degree (been there, done that) and that is a well established system that has taken literally centuries to get where itā€™s at today. I think we can wait 3 years for CyberTruck production to begin. Besides, now we can save our ā€œpenniesā€, during the delay, for an upgradeā€¦ I am!
 

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.... I think we can wait 3 years for CyberTruck production to begin. Besides, now we can save our ā€œpenniesā€, during the delay, for an upgradeā€¦ I am!
It's already been 3 years. Musk announced the CT in 2019.

The driving reasons for the CT non-release is
40%: Still not fully engineered/designed
60%: Too much money to be made from mass Model Y production in the current market situation.
 


Mr. Keys

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It's already been 3 years. Musk announced the CT in 2019.

The driving reasons for the CT non-release is
40%: Still not fully engineered/designed
60%: Too much money to be made from mass Model Y production in the current market situation.
Has only been a bit over 2 years but your point is valid, and prob your percentages too. There's really no excuse for them to not be close to wrapping up the design by now. Can you imagine Apple announcing a product that 2.5 years later they haven't finished designing? And then on top of it to not even say it's a priority with the statement of "hopefully 2023" and "optimus" when he's taken over a million reservations - that's pretty damn inexcusable.
 

kbolt

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I see a lot of posts here from people who just don't get it. I would expect this from randos on Facebook where the average IQ is lower.

Most people here are playing checkers, Ford, GM, VW, and the like are playing Chinese Checkers, while Tesla is playing 3D Chess or Go.

Tesla is a business first and their goal is to make money. Elon's mission is to advance EV adoption but also to make humans multi-planetary. This explains the move.

1) For a business you don't stop making your wildly popular product to make another experimental product.

2) He said on the earnings call that people don't understand the value of Robotaxis - that certainly applies to most of the people posting here and is especially true of people Facebook and the "professional" analysts. A Model Y worth $60k now will be worth $300k when they turn on the Robotaxi network. You can't accelerate EV adoption any better or faster than putting out 1 million cars that will have the utility of 5 million cars.

3) The first people on Mars will actually be Optimus Sub-Prime. And because the optimal launch window to Mars is every 2.2 years Optimus needs to be fully validated and autonomous by 2024. They won't have any handholding on the red planet.

Because of these three reasons above (and probably more since I'm not on the same level as Elon) Cybertruck needs to take a back seat to the Y and the Robot. Cybertruck will be a luxury toy once the bigger issues are taken care of.
 
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It's already been 3 years. Musk announced the CT in 2019.

The driving reasons for the CT non-release is
40%: Still not fully engineered/designed
60%: Too much money to be made from mass Model Y production in the current market situation.
2.167 years to be precise, because it was Nov. 2019. Ramp up of other models or not, percentage yet to be designed vs. engineered notwithstanding, if it starts production in 2023 we have a year to wait. Iā€™m not in a hurry.
 

Throwcomputer

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3) The first people on Mars will actually be Optimus Sub-Prime. And because the optimal launch window to Mars is every 2.2 years Optimus needs to be fully validated and autonomous by 2024. They won't have any handholding on the red planet.
While I generally agree on the sentiment that people here are expecting and demanding more than they've agreed or we've signed on for (saying in 2019 it will be released on 2021 is not a legally binding agreement that constantly breaking those projections would even remotely provide cause for legal action).. there is a lot of speculation the Elon has a crystal ball of foresight that leads to some perfectly executed master long term plan.

The reality is, he can't predict the future accurately as the last two years have shown, and that he can willingly derail his own grand long term plans by getting some new awesome idea in his head that will get him to the finish line. We are all dealing with a small version of that directly with the CT.. constant revising of the features to get the newest and best ideas into it, leading to increasing complexity and cost. Optimus is a risk to derailing many other aspects of the company as they self admittedly have too much going on. One could bet the company would not be devoting as much attention and effort if at all on Optimus if it weren't for Elon thinking it's the single biggest idea they should be working on.

Btw, it's cute that you think he'll somehow design and engineer a fully autonomous walking bipedal robot that is fully functional and rigorously tested and approved by NASA from start to finish for real world execution in the next two years. These robots involve innumerable revolutions and major advancements in robotics and ai that the greatest minds have been trudging away at for 50+ years with little progress. But don't worry, Elon and Tesla are on it! Piece of cake!

Imagine the geniuses at Boston Dynamics are grumbling under their breath at this mindset about Tesla's ability to execute on bipedal autonomous robots in no time at all... In the same way that Tesla and Tesla fans were laughing at Mary Barra's statement that GM is the leading EV car manufacturer.
 
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Throwcomputer

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Btw, I think it's an aggressive timeline to achieve their desired Optimus end goals in 20-25 years. Doable if they gobble up Boston Dynamics, incorporate the work of both projects and provide massive funding to hire literally everyone in the world smart in ai and robotics backed by the massive per vehicle profits of Tesla. But then you are taking a huge chunk out of the coffers for Tesla to build more giga factories, expand and continue to revolutionize battery technology, and every other thing they want to achieve
 


Crissa

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Hyundai bought Boston Dynamics. And Tesla and SpaceX buy from probably both of them. The goal of Optimus isn't to work like Atlas - just as Atlas isn't designed with the same world-perceiving Ai that Tesla has.

It's always easier for companies to catch up than stay leaders.

-Crissa
 

JBee

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Isn't Optimus just repackaged FSD for every car and truck out there including ICE? :ā€)

Huge market...

I think EM is looking skills shortage through population decline. You know from all the vaxxers keeling over from their 13th booster shot. :p

My thinking is that there is a urgency for EM to achieve his goals. He is not getting any younger, and there is a lot of labour time out there that could be better utilised. As he says there is no factory for engineers, but there might be for the more trivial human duties though. Time management is all about prioritising your time, so trying to make basic chores less demanding to free up more time for what is important. Optimums could do that for many, plus work the factory, plus be operating 24/7. And of course as guinea pigs for Starship flights to Mars.
 

happy intruder

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Isn't Optimus just repackaged FSD for every car and truck out there including ICE? :ā€)

Huge market...

I think EM is looking skills shortage through population decline. You know from all the vaxxers keeling over from their 13th booster shot. :p

My thinking is that there is a urgency for EM to achieve his goals. He is not getting any younger, and there is a lot of labour time out there that could be better utilised. As he says there is no factory for engineers, but there might be for the more trivial human duties though. Time management is all about prioritising your time, so trying to make basic chores less demanding to free up more time for what is important. Optimums could do that for many, plus work the factory, plus be operating 24/7. And of course as guinea pigs for Starship flights to Mars.
yea, we're all getting older....by the time I get my CT, Father Time would have sent me his letter to come home
 

Crissa

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At minimum, they've been working on the CT for three years.
It's been two years,, two months, eight days since the reveal.

The proposed first shipping was 2021. It's only a month late so far.

No one has waited three years yet. Unless you started counting long before the reveal.

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