SolarWizard

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I think the number of deliveries this year wont be close to 10000 personally, mostly because the skin is so hard to work with. There won’t be any fixing of panel gaps so they will have to be close to if not better than a what a texas model y is reportedly at now.

year two however will only be limited by battery supply and whatever the price is

 

Gurule92

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Im just under 50k for overall orders and just under 14k for tri motor according to tracker. so ill probably still end up in 2024. Hopefully the stars align and it qualifies for the point of sale tax credit at that time and we can pop that off my purchase price.

10k by year end feels possible though. Just need no more delays
 

HaulingAss

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for the record, Ford delivered a total of 15,617 Lightnings in 2022

the 13K number you cited (and that google responds with) is from late November data of “2022 to date”

FWIW, Ford delivered >6,000 of those in the month of Nov

EDIT TO ADD: thinking on this, the first rental delivery was on essentially the last day of May, and 6 months later (November) Ford had delivered over 13,000 units. They delivered ~6,000 in the month of November alone. If we (back of napkin) assume this increase in deliveries was production line related (as opposed eg to a previous bottleneck in delivery processes), that roughly equate to a line rate of 72,000/yr - which number makes me think the 6k/mo was more of a post-bottleneck aberration. Ford has aspired to a 40K/yr line rate by end of 2023, which seems reasonable/possible.

If folks are suggesting the first CT deliveries happen mid-year, as with Ford, seems we should expect at least as many out of Tesla by year end (here come the hordes shouting “twice as many!” “10 times!” “Infinite!”).
The first pre-production lightnings rolled out of the Dearborn factory on Sept. 16, 2021:

Ford Begins Pre-Production of All-Electric F-150 Lightning Truck, Boosts Investment, Adds Jobs in Michigan | Ford Media Center

The first pre-production Cyberrtruck cannot roll out of the Austin factory until they have their brand new 9000t Gigapress operational. It took 7 months for Ford to go from pre-production to their first production truck in May of 2022. If Tesla rolls the first pre-production Cybertruck out in March, and they take as long as Ford did to get into early production, then the first retail delivery won't happen until October.

My money says Tesla beats Ford's timeline hugely, and we see the first production units in June/July. If they pull it off, it would be even more notable considering that the Cybertruck is going to be loaded with industry firsts, from the stainless exoskeleton chassis integrated with alloy castings to things that still haven't been confirmed yet like the elimination of bundled copper wiring with printed ribbons and an all new electronic braking system from Brembo called "Sensify" that eliminates hydraulic fluid and the need to flush brake lines. Considering that the Lightning just uses a traditional brakes, traditional bundled wiring, a traditional ladder frame modified to fit the batteries and that, from the frame up, the truck is almost entirely conventional, that would be quite a coup if Tesla pulls it off.

And I think they will. Time will tell.
 

HaulingAss

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It's very difficult, and not that productive, to estimate initial year's production because it will vary wildly based upon the pre-production timeline and how well that goes. The important number is how many they are able to manufacture next year. I think even if 2023 is under 10K, the following year will more than make up for it.

If I had to guess, I would say 10K is a good guess although it could vary anywhere from very few to 80,000 depending upon how things go. Next year wil be stunning, anywhere from between 200K to 600K.
 

cvalue13

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Considering that the Lightning just uses a traditional brakes, traditional bundled wiring, a traditional ladder frame modified to fit the batteries and that, from the frame up, the truck is almost entirely conventional, that would be quite a coup if Tesla pulls it off.
hard for me to tell which way that comparison cuts!

I should sure as sh*t hope Tesla is faster - that’s it’s whole thing; also, Tesla’s been presumably noodling hard over this since well before the release in Nov. 2019

Meanwhile with the Lightning, Ford woke up with the CT announcement, quickly crammed battery guts into an F150, and slapped its ass while it ran out the shoot

one would hope Tesla can beat that with 3+ years to prepare, and superior speed as an inherent skill set, by the time it gets around to slapping its first CT asses
 


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It's very difficult, and not that productive, to estimate initial year's production because it will vary wildly based upon the pre-production timeline and how well that goes. The important number is how many they are able to manufacture next year. I think even if 2023 is under 10K, the following year will more than make up for it.

If I had to guess, I would say 10K is a good guess although it could vary anywhere from very few to 80,000 depending upon how things go. Next year wil be stunning, anywhere from between 200K to 600K.
Yep.

My guesses are all based on Model Y production ramp and a July-ish production start. Model Y ramp was slowed by 2022 parts and shipping issues so it might go a lot quicker. Or slower due to new stuff.



For Cybertruck fans, this is the Superbowl, World Series, and Redbull Rampage all rolled into one.
 

cvalue13

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I think even if 2023 is under 10K, the following year will more than make up for it.
Also worth noting that to the “bull investor” making this claim, 10K units in 2023 is more/or less all that is needed from the TSLA pricing and corporate delivery perspective … 10K not so few as to seem illusory, and numbers over that are just gravy
 

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hard for me to tell which way that comparison cuts!

I should sure as sh*t hope Tesla is faster - that’s it’s whole thing; also, Tesla’s been presumably noodling hard over this since well before the release in Nov. 2019

Meanwhile with the Lightning, Ford woke up with the CT announcement, quickly crammed battery guts into an F150, and slapped its ass while it ran out the shoot

one would hope Tesla can beat that with 3+ years to prepare, and superior speed as an inherent skill set, by the time it gets around to slapping its first CT asses
The electric F-150 concept was first displayed at SEMA in 2008 so Ford has been "presumably noodling hard over this" for 14 years! Tesla hadn't even converted their first Lotus to electric at that point in time!

These are the hard facts! It took Ford 14 years to go from concept to production, what were they doing the whole time? Tesla put out a couple million electric vehicles before Ford even delivered the first Mach-e!
 
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HaulingAss

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Also worth noting that to the “bull investor” making this claim, 10K units in 2023 is more/or less all that is needed from the TSLA pricing and corporate delivery perspective … 10K not so few as to seem illusory, and numbers over that are just gravy
I don't know anyone who respects Gary Black as a "bull investor". He's a Johnny come lately who has never fully grasped what Tesla is actually doing. I don't listen to a word he says.

You and Gary should get a room together. ;)
 


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I don't know anyone who respects Gary Black as a "bull investor". He's a Johnny come lately who has never fully grasped what Tesla is actually doing. I don't listen to a word he says.

You and Gary should get a room together. ;)
Don’t understand why people pay so much attention to him. Pretty much every third post by him is talking about how Tesla needs a PR department and to pay millions in advertising.
 

cvalue13

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I don't know anyone who respects Gary Black as a "bull investor". He's a Johnny come lately who has never fully grasped what Tesla is actually doing. I don't listen to a word he says.

You and Gary should get a room together. ;)
comment was agnostic to Gary Black

Suggestion was merely a musing that maybe for TSLA and it’s investors, something around 10K deliveries minimum in 2023 is a real, live, 2023 start you can herald and have made good on your previous Q3 call remarks

if conversely you manage to get out only a couple thousand, it starts to look more like slippage and a still pending success story

over 10K is success gravy

But don’t let me stop you from railing on Gary Black …
 

cvalue13

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The electric F-150 concept was first displayed at SEMA in 2008 so Ford has been "presumably noodling hard over this" for 14 years! Tesla hadn't even converted their first Lotus to electric at that point in time!

These are the hard facts! It took Ford 14 years to go from concept to production, what were they doing the whole time? Tesla put out a couple million electric vehicles before Ford even delivered the first Mach-e!

a prototype at a show trade you’re equating to Tesla announcing to investors the release of a production vehicle down to models, mileage range, MSRP, etc.?

To exercise your rants against Ford, your reasoning knows no standards!
 

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I don't know why we are comparing the Model Y ramp. Shanghai ? Germany.. that's a terrible example... and Austin ?

Model Y was ramping at Austin while the staff carpark was being built.. the piece of cardboard with an Arrow... Park Here !!!

Chalk and Cheese compared to now.

The Cybertruck will start and get to 1000 within a handful of weeks.. not Months.

Ramp takes 6-9 months... start counting from April.


BTW,,, have a look at the containers now spread along the East and WEST of the building.. the place looks like a centipede.

Buzzing and Open For Business.
 

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a prototype at a show trade you’re equating to Tesla announcing to investors the release of a production vehicle down to models, mileage range, MSRP, etc.?

To exercise your rants against Ford, your reasoning knows no standards!
he isn't wrong - Ford promised an electric truck for quite a while and then did nothing until Tesla forced them to.

 

 
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