Ogre

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I don't know why we are comparing the Model Y ramp. Shanghai ? Germany.. that's a terrible example... and Austin ?
Because we have literally nothing else to compare it to. We’ve watched Tesla do this less than 5 times.

My feeling is it’s better to be conservative and set ourselves up for positive surprises.

The Cybertruck will start and get to 1000 within a handful of weeks.. not Months.
I absolutely think this is possible. I suggested as much last year. But the Model Y ramp was a lot slower than I figured, on pretty much every aspect. Factory openings were delayed; Production start was slower than expected. Ramp started with lower volume and scaled slower. On top of that, 4680 production ramp has been a lot slower. Production of the 4680 Model Y has been lethargic. This time last year we expected Model Y would be cranking out 5,000 per week by now, 4680 production would be firing on all cylinders, and Cybertruck production would be started.

Pretty much everything which Tesla has done since I ordered my Cybertruck has been slower than I estimated and slower than the impression I got from management. So I’m using the slower baseline.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s all been super impressive, no other company would have been able to pull this off. But I haven’t seen any big positive surprises in terms of timelines or ramp speed.

 

charliemagpie

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Yes, you nailed it.

The issue has been the Y has been slower than predicted. My stance is that the Y came out of a greenfield sites, whereas now, not as green.

We should also keep in mind :
the Covid period
the chip shortage period
the battery shortage period
supplier parts ramping period
distribution network growth pains.
 

Ogre

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Yes, you nailed it.

The issue has been the Y has been slower than predicted. My stance is that the Y came out of a greenfield sites, whereas now, not as green.

We should also keep in mind :
the Covid period
the chip shortage period
the battery shortage period
supplier parts ramping period
distribution network growth pains.
Yes.

This is the other thing, the past 3 years or so have demonstrated to me that the world is perfectly capable of creating an entirely new global crisis every six months.

In the past 3 years we’ve had COVID. Absolutely massive supply chain issues due to COVID. Chip shortages which are not entirely related to it. A war which has threatened to bubble into Europe. Massive spikes in transportation costs and the cost of raw materials. A huge energy crisis in Europe due to the war. Huge temporary inflation due to all of the above. Massive layoffs at many tech companies and Tesla. Rising interest rates, a massive stock market slide and collapse of Tesla’s stock price.

And we’re looking at a recession.

Expecting we’re not going to have some kind of similar crisis in the next 12 months is at this point just not in me. So my underlying assumption is this chaos will continue. Until I’ve seen a couple quarters of stability, it’s going to be a tough sell for me to think otherwise.

So… yeah. I think Cybertruck ramp will have it’s own set of challenges. If it doesn’t. Awesome!

I’m super jazzed to see the progress on the Gigapress, but even it is a bit later than we expected.
 

HaulingAss

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a prototype at a show trade you’re equating to Tesla announcing to investors the release of a production vehicle down to models, mileage range, MSRP, etc.?

To exercise your rants against Ford, your reasoning knows no standards!
I own a Ford F-150. I could have bought any truck I wanted so if it sounds like I'm "ranting" against Ford, it's nothing personal, I like them better than Dodge and Chevy, but they certainly are no Tesla!

And I wasn't equating Ford's display of their electric F-150 at SEMA in 2008 with the Cybertruck announcement, I was informing you that Ford has been thinking electric F-150 for at least fourteen friggin' years. If they had to rush one into development based on the Cybertruck announcement, that's on them!

That's to Tesla's credit, not their fault! Do you think Ford would have preferred that Tesla didn't give them a heads up that they were entering the truck market? I'm pretty sure it was a professional courtesy and Ford appreciated not getting blindsided. I just hope Ford's 2024 electric F-150 is a whole new generation, not just the release version with some added cupholders, 2 more electrical outlets, or 10 more horsepower!
 

Tinker71

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The first pre-production lightnings rolled out of the Dearborn factory on Sept. 16, 2021:

Ford Begins Pre-Production of All-Electric F-150 Lightning Truck, Boosts Investment, Adds Jobs in Michigan | Ford Media Center

The first pre-production Cyberrtruck cannot roll out of the Austin factory until they have their brand new 9000t Gigapress operational. It took 7 months for Ford to go from pre-production to their first production truck in May of 2022. If Tesla rolls the first pre-production Cybertruck out in March, and they take as long as Ford did to get into early production, then the first retail delivery won't happen until October.

My money says Tesla beats Ford's timeline hugely, and we see the first production units in June/July. If they pull it off, it would be even more notable considering that the Cybertruck is going to be loaded with industry firsts, from the stainless exoskeleton chassis integrated with alloy castings to things that still haven't been confirmed yet like the elimination of bundled copper wiring with printed ribbons and an all new electronic braking system from Brembo called "Sensify" that eliminates hydraulic fluid and the need to flush brake lines. Considering that the Lightning just uses a traditional brakes, traditional bundled wiring, a traditional ladder frame modified to fit the batteries and that, from the frame up, the truck is almost entirely conventional, that would be quite a coup if Tesla pulls it off.

And I think they will. Time will tell.
Great informative post. My only fear is that the large giga casting will be tough to dial in. I remember Giga Berlin had real problems getting reliable casts for the Model Y for a while. The CT casting will be that much more difficult. Nobody has die cast a part this big and complex.

Everything else you mention should be a manufacturing time savings. I used to worry about the skin folding, but apparently they will be doing a lot of welding with only a few pieces in the 7 foot range.

I am still pessimistic about the 500 mile range coming out in quantities. They need both the dry anode and cathode process to get what they need out of the batteries. So far they have only master one or the other. (I keep forgetting which). Unless they double stack the batteries which is a design challenge in itself. I am betting we will see a 400 mile version which may or may not be a quad and 4ws. 500 mile versions will come as soon as the battery production is close to perfect.

I predict they will be close to 20,000 units with 5000 coming of the line in November.
 


Tinker71

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Yes.

This is the other thing, the past 3 years or so have demonstrated to me that the world is perfectly capable of creating an entirely new global crisis every six months.

In the past 3 years we’ve had COVID. Absolutely massive supply chain issues due to COVID. Chip shortages which are not entirely related to it. A war which has threatened to bubble into Europe. Massive spikes in transportation costs and the cost of raw materials. A huge energy crisis in Europe due to the war. Huge temporary inflation due to all of the above. Massive layoffs at many tech companies and Tesla. Rising interest rates, a massive stock market slide and collapse of Tesla’s stock price.

And we’re looking at a recession.

Expecting we’re not going to have some kind of similar crisis in the next 12 months is at this point just not in me. So my underlying assumption is this chaos will continue. Until I’ve seen a couple quarters of stability, it’s going to be a tough sell for me to think otherwise.

So… yeah. I think Cybertruck ramp will have it’s own set of challenges. If it doesn’t. Awesome!

I’m super jazzed to see the progress on the Gigapress, but even it is a bit later than we expected.
My prediction is the recession will be short and there will be some progress in Ukraine. China is coming out of Covid and will probably goose their economy with stimulus spending. We should see a really strong recovery in Q3 and Q4.
 

Ogre

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My prediction is the recession will be short and there will be some progress in Ukraine. China is coming out of Covid and will probably goose their economy with stimulus spending. We should see a really strong recovery in Q3 and Q4.
Here’s a thought for you and @charliemagpie

If Tesla was able to do this with the chaos of the past 2 years, what can they do with clear skies and an open path ahead?
 

Qball

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CT ramp progress should not be extrapolated from MY ramp!!! There is no need for many welds, body panels and most importantly exterior paint which is time consuming. 10k should be easily surpassed in less than 6 months.

giga cast
Weld on steel panels
Insert structural pack, electronics and seats from under
Bolt on drive units with suspension
Add interior
Ad external parts like lights and glass
Self test
Done!

CT production line should be mind bendingly short and fast! The entire CT is designed to be made fast, no so with M3 and MY.
 
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HaulingAss

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CT ramp progress should not be extrapolated from MY ramp!!! There is no need for many welds, body panels and most importantly exterior paint which is time consuming. 10k should be easily surpassed in less than 6 months.

giga cast
Weld on steel panels
Insert structural pack, electronics and seats from under
Bolt on drive units with suspension
Add interior
Ad external parts like lights and glass
Self test
Done!

CT production line should be mind bendingly short and fast! The entire CT is designed to be made fast, no so with M3 and MY.
The Cybertruck being designed to be manufacturered quickly and efficiently is not the same thing as being made to ramp production fast. Tesla is playing the long game here; they engineer and design like crazy knowing it will all be worth it when the production lines are leveraging all that engineering and design work to be fast and efficient. If they wanted a fast ramp, they would have built a pick-up using century old technology, a heavy ladder frame with a body and bed bolted on top. That's not what they did and it might take a little while longer to get all the new production processes dialed in so the lines can hum as designed.
 

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Yes.

This is the other thing, the past 3 years or so have demonstrated to me that the world is perfectly capable of creating an entirely new global crisis every six months.

In the past 3 years we’ve had COVID. Absolutely massive supply chain issues due to COVID. Chip shortages which are not entirely related to it. A war which has threatened to bubble into Europe. Massive spikes in transportation costs and the cost of raw materials. A huge energy crisis in Europe due to the war. Huge temporary inflation due to all of the above. Massive layoffs at many tech companies and Tesla. Rising interest rates, a massive stock market slide and collapse of Tesla’s stock price.

And we’re looking at a recession.

Expecting we’re not going to have some kind of similar crisis in the next 12 months is at this point just not in me. So my underlying assumption is this chaos will continue. Until I’ve seen a couple quarters of stability, it’s going to be a tough sell for me to think otherwise.

So… yeah. I think Cybertruck ramp will have it’s own set of challenges. If it doesn’t. Awesome!

I’m super jazzed to see the progress on the Gigapress, but even it is a bit later than we expected.
Model Y ramp was slow. CT will be amazing fast due to shorter assembly line.
I don't want to inject politics but there are sometimes periods where we don't bounce from one crisis to the other....
 


kbolt

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for the record, Ford delivered a total of 15,617 Lightnings in 2022

the 13K number you cited (and that google responds with) is from late November data of “2022 to date”

FWIW, Ford delivered >6,000 of those in the month of Nov

EDIT TO ADD: thinking on this, the first rental delivery was on essentially the last day of May, and 6 months later (November) Ford had delivered over 13,000 units. They delivered ~6,000 in the month of November alone. If we (back of napkin) assume this increase in deliveries was production line related (as opposed eg to a previous bottleneck in delivery processes), that roughly equate to a line rate of 72,000/yr - which number makes me think the 6k/mo was more of a post-bottleneck aberration. Ford has aspired to a 40K/yr line rate by end of 2023, which seems reasonable/possible.

If folks are suggesting the first CT deliveries happen mid-year, as with Ford, seems we should expect at least as many out of Tesla by year end (here come the hordes shouting “twice as many!” “10 times!” “Infinite!”).
Infinite!!
 

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Because we have literally nothing else to compare it to. We’ve watched Tesla do this less than 5 times.



My feeling is it’s better to be conservative and set ourselves up for positive surprises.







I absolutely think this is possible. I suggested as much last year. But the Model Y ramp was a lot slower than I figured, on pretty much every aspect. Factory openings were delayed; Production start was slower than expected. Ramp started with lower volume and scaled slower. On top of that, 4680 production ramp has been a lot slower. Production of the 4680 Model Y has been lethargic. This time last year we expected Model Y would be cranking out 5,000 per week by now, 4680 production would be firing on all cylinders, and Cybertruck production would be started.



Pretty much everything which Tesla has done since I ordered my Cybertruck has been slower than I estimated and slower than the impression I got from management. So I’m using the slower baseline.



Don’t get me wrong, it’s all been super impressive, no other company would have been able to pull this off. But I haven’t seen any big positive surprises in terms of timelines or ramp speed.
... and we don't know how fast CT production will be without paint on an exoskeleton!
 

Ogre

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Model Y ramp was slow. CT will be amazing fast due to shorter assembly line.
I don't want to inject politics but there are sometimes periods where we don't bounce from one crisis to the other....
If I take delivery of my truck before year end I’ll give you an apology ride.
 

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The Recession is going to be REAL. But I think Tesla has that figured in. The unknown is will demand drop due to households being financially squeezed. I'm in a position to weather most of the doomsday scenarios. And if my gloomy predictions come to pass, at least it may make my delivery happen sooner.

 

 
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