Quicksilver

Well-known member
First Name
Charles
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Threads
10
Messages
538
Reaction score
644
Location
Alabama
Vehicles
Nissan van
Occupation
Retired military
Country flag
What's to keep other EV owners from doing the same and clogging up availability
Since the CT will have a Reese type hitch on the back I plan to carry a set of chains like the rollbacks carry to assist asshats in removing their vehicles from charger spots if they don't belong there or are not plugged into it.
The last time I was at the local Love's Truck Stop (the closest Tesla chargers to me) there were a couple of ICE vehicles parked in the spaces. It didn't help that they installed the chargers right next to the Wendy's and that is just too tempting for the fat, lazy slobs that can't walk from the regular parking area.
Sponsored

 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Since the CT will have a Reese type hitch on the back I plan to carry a set of chains like the rollbacks carry to assist asshats in removing their vehicles from charger spots if they don't belong there or are not plugged into it.
The last time I was at the local Love's Truck Stop (the closest Tesla chargers to me) there were a couple of ICE vehicles parked in the spaces. It didn't help that they installed the chargers right next to the Wendy's and that is just too tempting for the fat, lazy slobs that can't walk from the regular parking area.
Yeah, gotta install the chargers in places where people are less likely to poach the spots. Having charging stalls in primo locations to "Reward" EV owners is almost the reverse. I'd just as soon walk a little further and worry less about having the spot filled.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
It's usually less to 'reward' so much as 'it's closer to the power drop'.

-Crissa
Yeah, install costs next to the building have to be a lot cheaper than if they have to drop a trench for power across 50 yards of parking lot.
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,887
Reaction score
5,133
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
Everyone is wrong :p

Tesla will make far more than 28 Billion.. the only issue would be the KW price going down to 10 cents.

I predict Tesla will have a minimum 100,000 stations with say an average of 10 chargers in each.

Keep in mind, if it takes 3 times longer to charge an EV Vs filling a gas tank, we would need 3 times the charges to handle the volume of customers.

Of course, 3 times longer is very generous.


If we have 100,000 locations and 10 chargers per location and each charger makes $100 per day.. (~~to service the 250 million EV out there) that generates 36.5 Billion NET per year. Minimum.
 


JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
18
Messages
4,752
Reaction score
6,129
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
On the other thread about the new Tesla Supercharger site in Arizona, I did a rough calculation and could only get to around 10% ROI for charge stations. They are long term investments. It's fairly easy to generate "potentials" by multiplying inaccurate assumptions. :confused:

There are two main factors that need to be considered here, one is time of use (ToU) and the other is charging location. Then ask how many EV's will be charged at home and don't need a SC for most of the kilometers they drive, and how much can the charging station add to the cost of electricity and still retain customers?

Lets look at market size, even if you had 100% EV penetration, most customers would be charging at home overnight. Lets say 50% of them do this on average, that means your SC market just halved based on how often they use it. Then we add the fact that most SC are not used late at night, simply because most people are in bed, that's another 30% (8hours) of time per day the SC is underutilized and vacant capex, before we even get into at what capacity the SC is being used.

Now this doesn't mean that it can't sell a "certain volume" of energy, due to the very high charge rate, in comparison to home charging, but it does give us an indication of when the most likely times of charging will be, and that they will be in peak and shoulder times, where electricity network prices are higher and customers are more sensitive to charging rates. Charging at home off peak would look like a bargain in comparison, which leads to pretty pedantic at home charging use.

Then like all traffic congestion, you will have stacking effects, where everyone wants to charge at relatively the same time, like going home from work, holiday traffic etc meaning not only do you have high peak loads per charger, you also have to accommodate high traffic loads of multiple chargers too, meaning fairly high network connectivity costs, hence the need for that Arizona one to install an additional Megapack as well, which raises capex again.

The margins are not actually that great and I think even the $25b is being very generous. The only advantage Tesla has here is that they have already spent the capex and are increasing their ToU by introducing more non-Tesla customers to their network.
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,887
Reaction score
5,133
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
Of course, we don't have a precise starting point , the margin of error just gets bigger as we extrapolate out.

Right now we have a situation where there is a good business case to build charging stations. These stations cost upwards of $150,000 per charger. A 20% return = $30,000 per year.. which is $82 per day.

A ROI of 20% isn't overs. I could have the 150,000 wrong. Maybe cost 250,000+.

Previously I just worked out how many KW would be serviced daily by each station. Tesla is around 50 cents... I see some at 60 cents. 20 cents profit pr KW isn't overdoing it. From this angle, profits in the tens of billions as well. It's the huge global scale of the thing.

Tesla may also (I think will) use their station batteries as megapacks. Perhaps balance use and buy off-peak and sell back to the grid at peak rates. That's 100,000+ megpack locations.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,227
Reaction score
27,092
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Keep in mind, if it takes 3 times longer to charge an EV Vs filling a gas tank, we would need 3 times the charges to handle the volume of customers.
But you don't have 3x the volume of customers. The vast majority of charging is at home/destination.

So you end up with the problem that you need more chargers to handle a surge plus reliability - but that means that most of the time, the vast majority of chargers are idle.

It's not a simple calculation at all. But most analysts seem to just see complexity and say that means it's not going to be worth anything - and that is definitely wrong. The market seems to see that.

-Crissa
 

firsttruck

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Threads
172
Messages
2,542
Reaction score
4,042
Location
mx
Vehicles
none
Country flag
Everyone is wrong :p

Tesla will make far more than 28 Billion.. the only issue would be the KW price going down to 10 cents.

I predict Tesla will have a minimum 100,000 stations with say an average of 10 chargers in each.

Keep in mind, if it takes 3 times longer to charge an EV Vs filling a gas tank, we would need 3 times the charges to handle the volume of customers.

Of course, 3 times longer is very generous.

If you are talking about Tesla or other brands of generally publicly available chargers your 3 times number is way off ( way too high).

Yes, ICE can fill up much faster on a individual basis but 99.9% of ICE must go to a public station.

Most EVs will fill up every day or night at private homes, apartment parking lot, employer business parking lot chargers so the vast majority of EVs will not use a public charging stations at all.

Most EV owners will use public chargers only when making long trips.
 

firsttruck

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Threads
172
Messages
2,542
Reaction score
4,042
Location
mx
Vehicles
none
Country flag
Of course, we don't have a precise starting point , the margin of error just gets bigger as we extrapolate out.

Right now we have a situation where there is a good business case to build charging stations. These stations cost upwards of $150,000 per charger. A 20% return = $30,000 per year.. which is $82 per day.

Recently Tesla estimated installed cost for DC fast charging units to Texas government and competitors prices were much higher (several times more) than Tesla.

Tesla's price was nowhere near $150K per charger

Tesla: $29K per unit for 17-plex, $42K per unit for 9-plex

------------

Tesla Superchargers Would Save Texas Money, But State Denied Tesla Grants
Tesla was denied a grant application for Superchargers in Texas, and it reveals the company's extremely low costs.
Apr 18, 2022
By: Steven Loveday
https://insideevs.com/news/580505/tesla-supercharger/

.....
Companies were only allowed to apply for grant money to cover up to 70 percent of a charger's deployment up to $150,000. While most companies request the full $150,000 per charger, Tesla only applied for $30,000 per charger. However, it wasn't awarded a single penny of grant money.

While this story in itself is quite interesting, it's the data Forbes gleaned from the situation that's arguably much more compelling.

The following is a list of unaccepted grant applications, which show up to 70 percent of the cost to deploy.

Chargepoint: $150K+ for 2-plex

EVgo: $150K+ for pair, $126K for 4-plex

Circle-K: $75K for 4-plex to $150K+ for 2-plex

7-11: $126K for 2-plex

"Retail EV Charging North/South Texas” (Buc-ee’s) $100K/charger for 6-plex

Various small players: $75K to $150K, averaging at least $133K/charger

Accepted applications so far from various players average $123K+/charger

Tesla: $29K for 17-plex, $42K for 9-plex

As you can clearly see, Tesla's cost to deploy a Supercharger station related to this grant application is about 1/5th of the competition's. It seems Texas would save money by providing grants to Tesla over rivals.

------------

Tesla denied grant applications in Texas for Superchargers despite fractional costs
By Joey Klender
Posted on April 15, 2022
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-den...-in-texas-for-superchargers-fractional-costs/


.....
Even if Tesla planned to use the grant funds to expand its charging infrastructure, the decision not to accept their applications is questionable. The prices in unaccepted grant applications, representing up to 70 percent of the actual cost, are as follows:

Chargepoint: $150K+ for 2-plex

EVgo: $150K+ for pair, $126K for 4-plex

Circle-K: $75K for 4-plex to $150K+ for 2-plex

7-11: $126K for 2-plex

“Retail EV Charging North/South Texas” (Buc-ee’s) $100K/charger for 6-plex

Various small players: $75K to $150K, averaging at least $133K/charger

Accepted applications so far from various players average $123K+/charger

Tesla: $29K for 17-plex, $42K for 9-plex


------------
 
Last edited:


charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,887
Reaction score
5,133
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
The higher cost of the supercharger for competitors makes the case that it's at least 20% return for Tesla's investment.


I said 3X .. But I say it takes 30 minutes to charge a car Vrs 5 minutes to fill it. Thats 6X. I was being conservative

But I agree with the general idea. People will charge at home.

I wasn't totally expressing my thoughts.

I was thinking further out than the 250 million EV. I was thinking 1 Billion. But that would open a different debate.

Robotaxi's are key.
Maybe there will be 100 million+ out there.
Tesla will not profit by 20cents, but as opposed to its competitors, it will save 20 cents.


That saving will still reflect on the bottom line.

Its dozens of Billions.
 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
18
Messages
4,752
Reaction score
6,129
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
That's cheaper than I thought they were, but still fairly expensive for what they are. Was that including network connection cost, of just the charge terminals themselves.

Meanwhile our nearest SC doesn't even have a sealed parking spot and you have to drive over the curb to get to it. But hey at least its got some shade.

Tesla Cybertruck Tesla to potentially make $25 billion from sharing superchargers images (32)
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,887
Reaction score
5,133
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
I had to laugh


Did they rope it off because someone tripped and died while they were recharging ?

Or is the completion date @ AU pace around mid century ?
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
4,495
Reaction score
9,476
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 F-150, 2018 Model 3 Perform, FS Cybertruck
Country flag
Everyone is wrong :p

Tesla will make far more than 28 Billion.. the only issue would be the KW price going down to 10 cents.

I predict Tesla will have a minimum 100,000 stations with say an average of 10 chargers in each.

Keep in mind, if it takes 3 times longer to charge an EV Vs filling a gas tank, we would need 3 times the charges to handle the volume of customers.

Of course, 3 times longer is very generous.


If we have 100,000 locations and 10 chargers per location and each charger makes $100 per day.. (~~to service the 250 million EV out there) that generates 36.5 Billion NET per year. Minimum.
There is a major error in your assumptions when you say:

Keep in mind, if it takes 3 times longer to charge an EV Vs filling a gas tank, we would need 3 times the charges to handle the volume of customers.
Something around 95-98% of all charging is done at home or work so we simply don't need as many fast DC chargers as gas pumps, not even close.
Sponsored

 
 




Top