firsttruck

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......
I don’t know about Ford. It’s really hard to say, but they won’t have a huge head start on Tesla unless you assume they will start early and fast and Tesla will start late and slow.
--------------------
Ford doubles Lightning production target on strong pre-launch demand -sources
By Ben Klayman and Joseph White
August 23, 2021
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...n-target-strong-pre-launch-demand-2021-08-23/
.....
The ramp to the new production target includes plans to build about 15,000 next year after the electric truck's spring launch and 55,000 in 2023

targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources, who asked not to be identified.
--------------------


For 2022 Ford said they will make 15,000 F-150 Lightnings.

If we assume they ship starting beginning of 2nd quarter 2022 (Monday April 3 2022).
Deduct 2 weeks out of the year for 1 week holidays in Nov & 1 in Dec.
37 weeks of production. Working 5 days per week.
Total about 185 production days for 2-4 qtrs 2022

So maybe average of only 81 F-150 Lightnings per day.

What we don't know is how many 8-hour shift production lines will be used.

Looks to be pretty slow rate.
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Ogre

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I fully expect Cybertruck volume to be half a million a year or more by the end of 2024.

A giga press cranks out 40 trucks per hour.

Ford won’t be remotely competitive until after they complete their battery factory in 2025. (Assuming they complete it by 2025).
 

firsttruck

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If the Lightning will be produced at 80k per year after the second year, but the CT will be produced at 30k per quarter after the second quarter, how long till CT has more vehicles in the hands of customers? And how long till CT has doubled the number Lightnings out in the world? And this is only at the CT production numbers you estimate for the second quarter. Tesla generally keeps beating its previous quarter production numbers so even this math problem doesn't cover the full spanking Lightning is going to be getting in year 3 and beyond.

1637352633315.png
----------------------------------

Nice looking chart but the chart grossly overstates Lightning production for 2022 & 2023.
The chart shows 80,000 total for entire year of 2022.
Ford has updated estimates for Lightning production for total 15,000 in year 2022 and total 80,000 year 2023.

If might be easier to only show years instead of quarters in the chart since we really don't know the slope of the ramp by quarters in 2022 & 2023.
 

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Adding in further feedback.

RE: Ford Production:

The ramp to the new production target includes plans to build about 15,000 next year after the electric truck's spring launch and 55,000 in 2023

targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources, who asked not to be identified.


For 2022 Ford said they will make 15,000 F-150 Lightnings.

If we assume they ship starting beginning of 2nd quarter 2022 (Monday April 3 2022).
Then regarding CT production
I fully expect Cybertruck volume to be half a million a year or more by the end of 2024.

A giga press cranks out 40 trucks per hour.

If might be easier to only show years instead of quarters in the chart since we really don't know the slope of the ramp by quarters in 2022 & 2023.
I am just making even estimates on the slopes. Not expecting to be accurate. Just trying to get a general view of what's possible. Most of the numbers I'm hearing from company executives seem to be general swag anyway.

1637355430353.png


Also found this quote:

The Lightning, which has over 150,000 reservations to date, is an electric version of Ford's best-selling gas-powered F-150 truck, whose popularity has made it the subject of some songs.

"The interest from the public has surpassed our highest expectations," Executive Chairman Bill Ford said in a statement.
Way to go Bill. It's this kind of misguided disconnect that has kept EVs from moving forward. And now Ford is getting schooled. Just wait till the CT eats up all of Ford's bread and butter.
 

Ogre

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Just wait till the CT eats up all of Ford's bread and butter.
This is what has me wondering.

Trucks are the engine that drives Ford and GM‘s profits.

If Tesla sells 700,000 Cybertrucks a year, what does that do to the truck market? What about the large SUV market?

What happens when GM and Ford’s profit engines run out of gas?
 

FutureBoy

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This is what has me wondering.

Trucks are the engine that drives Ford and GM‘s profits.

If Tesla sells 700,000 Cybertrucks a year, what does that do to the truck market? What about the large SUV market?

What happens when GM and Ford’s profit engines run out of gas?
Crazy thing is that once the CT is being produced at high numbers, it wouldn't take much for Tesla to do a quick design update to create an SUV/Van on the CT platform then stand up a second or third line to push those out at a similar volume.

These numbers are why I truly believe that the big 3 (and probably others like VW) are basically dinosaurs watching a meteor land at this point. Sure they see the pretty lights up in the sky, but there is still plenty of food and territory around them at the moment to keep them from worrying.

But soon, the shock wave will hit. Followed by the dust cloud. And the fire in the atmosphere. And tidal waves not seen before. And in the aftermath, mammals will inherit the earth. If the dinosaurs are lucky, there will be vestigial populations of Komodo dragons, and modified reptiles that remain to some extent. And someday there will be enough modifications to bring about birds.
 

Ogre

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Crazy thing is that once the CT is being produced at high numbers, it wouldn't take much for Tesla to do a quick design update to create an SUV/Van on the CT platform then stand up a second or third line to push those out at a similar volume.

These numbers are why I truly believe that the big 3 (and probably others like VW) are basically dinosaurs watching a meteor land at this point. Sure they see the pretty lights up in the sky, but there is still plenty of food and territory around them at the moment to keep them from worrying.

But soon, the shock wave will hit. Followed by the dust cloud. And the fire in the atmosphere. And tidal waves not seen before. And in the aftermath, mammals will inherit the earth. If the dinosaurs are lucky, there will be vestigial populations of Komodo dragons, and modified reptiles that remain to some extent. And someday there will be enough modifications to bring about birds.
Do you recall that show Dinosaurs?

This reminds me of the end of that show.

The very last scene of the final episode is the Dad who helped create the end of the world telling the Baby:

“I’m sure it’ll all work out okay,” Earl says, as the family huddles in warm clothes. “After all, dinosaurs have been on this earth for 150 million years. It’s not like we’re going to just … disappear!”

https://www.vulture.com/2018/08/dinosaurs-tvs-saddest-sitcom-finale.html
 

firsttruck

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Adding in further feedback.

RE: Ford Production:



Then regarding CT production





I am just making even estimates on the slopes. Not expecting to be accurate. Just trying to get a general view of what's possible. Most of the numbers I'm hearing from company executives seem to be general swag anyway.

1637355430353.png
Nice update to the chart. Very useful but still needs tweaks to match Ford's estimates.

For Lightning, cumulative total at 2022 Q4 is good.

Cumulative total at 2023 Q4 is too high. Should be 70,000 ( 15,000 for 2022 + 55,000 2023).

Cumulative total at 2024 Q4 is too high. Should be 150,000 ( 15,000 for 2022 + 55,000 2023 + 80,000 2024).
 

FutureBoy

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Do you recall that show Dinosaurs?

This reminds me of the end of that show.

The very last scene of the final episode is the Dad who helped create the end of the world telling the Baby:

“I’m sure it’ll all work out okay,” Earl says, as the family huddles in warm clothes. “After all, dinosaurs have been on this earth for 150 million years. It’s not like we’re going to just … disappear!”

https://www.vulture.com/2018/08/dinosaurs-tvs-saddest-sitcom-finale.html
Never saw the show. But now I'm intrigued to look it up. Apparently, it's on Hulu.
 

FutureBoy

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Nice update to the chart. Very useful but still needs tweaks to match Ford's estimates.

For Lightning, cumulative total at 2022 Q4 is good.

Cumulative total at 2023 Q4 is too high. Should be 70,000 ( 15,000 for 2022 + 55,000 2023).

Cumulative total at 2024 Q4 is too high. Should be 150,000 ( 15,000 for 2022 + 55,000 2023 + 80,000 2024).
I was trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. I started this exercise figuring that if Ford is over estimated and Tesla is underestimated then no one on either side could fault my conclusion.

But let's make the changes you are suggesting:

1637361068781.png


So given these numbers, really does Ford even have a chance?

I'm thinking that in order to produce enough vehicles, Ford would need to drop all the current truck lines it is doing and convert them over to EV versions. But at this point they don't even know if the Lightning has enough traction to warrant such a drastic move. With only 150k preorders, if they took such drastic measures, (assuming they could even manage to get enough batteries or other supplies) there is no guarantee that they could even sell everything they would make. That would be a deadly move if not done correctly.

Or say they work thier current plan. Tesla has well over 1 million preorders already and will be able to fulfill those orders in a couple years. This is going to eat into Fords ICE truck sales quite a bit. So Ford is dead in the water there.

Anyone got any good advice for Ford that would allow them to come through this successfully? Does any of the advice hinge on declaring banckruptcy, spinning off the EV portion of the company, and seeking government bailouts? Cause I doubt Ford would publicly admit that kind of tactic.
 

firsttruck

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Do you recall that show Dinosaurs?

This reminds me of the end of that show.

The very last scene of the final episode is the Dad who helped create the end of the world telling the Baby:

“I’m sure it’ll all work out okay,” Earl says, as the family huddles in warm clothes. “After all, dinosaurs have been on this earth for 150 million years. It’s not like we’re going to just … disappear!”

https://www.vulture.com/2018/08/dinosaurs-tvs-saddest-sitcom-finale.html
Yup, similar stuff said by human business people in past even fairly recently.
Some things for thousands of years, others hundreds of years, nosw 20-50 years.

Evidence of Earliest Known Domestic Horses Found in Kazakhstan
Horses may have been ridden as early as 5,500 years ago.
March 5, 2009
https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=114345

Thousands of years
Almost all makers of:
buggy whips
wagons & carriages that were to be drawn by horses
blacksmiths
bridle & saddles

Hundreds of years
Almost all makers of:
Transoceanic passenger ships ( replaced by airliners )
Mechanical time keeping devices ( clocks, watches)

One hundred year
Almost all makers of:
Photographic plate/film ( now digital cameras)
Music listeners needing physical media ( grooved cylinders, rolls, grooved record thin disc, cassette tapes, CDs, usb stick, etc).

More recent
Almost all makers of:
Motorola cell phones
Blackberry cell phones

Soon
Almost all makers of:
ICE passenger vehicles
 
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firsttruck

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I was trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. I started this exercise figuring that if Ford is over estimated and Tesla is underestimated then no one on either side could fault my conclusion.

But let's make the changes you are suggesting:

1637361068781.png


....

If anyone wants to play with the numbers above, you can get a copy of the spreadsheet here.

Thanks for updating the chart. I found it very useful.
 

Crissa

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Rivian has not done anything which merits getting the benefit of the doubt here. They are a year late and basically lied about start of production in order to look good for their IPO. Yes they have a handful of cars in the hands of “customers”, but they are halfway through their first quarter of production hand have almost no trucks on the road.

They’ve basically told their founders edition buyers not to expect trucks until February so it’s unlikely we’ll see more than a handful more deliveries before 2nd quarter 2022.
Their ramp is very similar to the Model 3, if you counted from the first ones going to employees. We'll see. Sounded like they had now averaged 5/day over the last two months. So they're catching up slowly but steadily.

-Crissa
 

happy intruder

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SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]








So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is. :cry::cry:
I guess I am luck......number is 46,146
 
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