RMK!

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After ordering the CT on Dec 3rd, 2019 I'm like 325K on the list and 85K on the Dual Motor list. Early 2014 seems about right and yes, it is a damn long time to wait but I'm pretty confident it'll be worth it.

I too have a Model Y (3 year Tesla Lease delivered 07/29/2021) to "tide me over". The Wife just received her Model 3 SR and loves it (as much as she loves any car ;-) so I'm set for the long wait.

I'm old so near the end of my car buying days hence, there is nothing but Tesla ownership in my future. The ebike pictured in my profile pic has me riding 200 miles a week and my mother passed away at 104 this year so I could live a while longer than average. Maybe a couple more Tesla's in my future.
 

anionic1

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After ordering the CT on Dec 3rd, 2019 I'm like 325K on the list and 85K on the Dual Motor list. Early 2014 seems about right and yes, it is a damn long time to wait but I'm pretty confident it'll be worth it.

I too have a Model Y (3 year Tesla Lease delivered 07/29/2021) to "tide me over". The Wife just received her Model 3 SR and loves it (as much as she loves any car ;-) so I'm set for the long wait.

I'm old so near the end of my car buying days hence, there is nothing but Tesla ownership in my future. The ebike pictured in my profile pic has me riding 200 miles a week and my mother passed away at 104 this year so I could live a while longer than average. Maybe a couple more Tesla's in my future.
I think I am in a similar position. I think I stand around 35,000 for dual motor and 600,000 for tri motor. I do think I still prefer the dual just because I don’t want to haul all that extra 1000 lbs of battery around all day. I really think we will see trailers that offer reserve batteries that can charge the CT for longer trips. Plus if it is offered at $49k that is a steal. Even if it’s $49 after the EV incentives.
 
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intimidator

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--------------------
Ford doubles Lightning production target on strong pre-launch demand -sources
By Ben Klayman and Joseph White

.....
The ramp to the new production target includes plans to build about 15,000 next year after the electric truck's spring launch and 55,000 in 2023

targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources, who asked not to be identified.
I don't think it is a "contest" between Tesla and Ford (or Rivian for that matter).

Ford sells a lot of F150's and F250's and has a huge, loyal customer base. And Ford will sell a ton of ICE pickups between now and 2030. Ford also will sell quite a few Lightnings (basically as fast as they can build them).

Having ridden in the Lightning, IMO it will appeal to existing F150 owners. It has a lot of nice features AND it is very much like their existing F150 so it is familiar.

In the meantime, once Tesla finally does start production, they will sell a GigaTon of the CyberTruck.

But they are very different vehicles. And the Rivian is different from both of those.

There is a market for all 3.

Don't forget if a current F150 owner decides tomorrow he wants to buy a CyberTruck, he will have to wait until 2025 to take delivery. There are over 1.5 million people ahead of him in the line. So his choice will be to put in an order for a Lightning, or, buy another ICE F150?
 

Ogre

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I don't think it is a "contest" between Tesla and Ford (or Rivian for that matter).

There is a market for all 3.
The truck market in 5 years is going to look a lot different from what it looks like today.

Tesla is bringing capacity to build at least 300,000 trucks per year online. Looking at the factory size, perhaps as much as a 800,000 a year eventually. Those truck sales are coming out of someone‘s sales numbers.

Truck buyers are often very practical. If Tesla maintains their pricing position (rough parity with the Ford F-150) and maintains their technology & capability advantages (FSD, 500 mile range, air suspension), there are a lot of F150 owners who will jump ship.

One of the underpinnings of the Ford brand has been value. Tesla has a pretty big edge in the value department at the moment. That is going to lure a lot of potential buyers over. Because Tesla has huge cost advantages manufacturing EVs and the Cybertruck specifically, I expect they will be able to maintain that value advantage for some time to come.

Tesla is unlikely to take the whole truck market, but they are taking a good chunk of it. The big question is which existing brands are losing the most market share. Rivian is likewise taking share form someone.
 

Ogre

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FWIW, Rivian has announced they are now delaying delivery of both their truck and SUV for several months. They are going to stop shipping (beta) trucks to consumers until February and the SUV deliveries won’t start until April or May.

IPO is over so the incentive to give million dollar trucks to consumers has vanished.

Hopefully they will get their shit together for a real launch by February.
 

Ogre

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So how do we book a slot to check it out, and long do we get?
I may very well list mine on Turo and let people rent it. I’ll be a few weeks behind happy intruder, but seems like it would fetch a premium for the first year or so.

Also, I’d be more than happy to offer some seat time to folks on the forum if I’m in town.
 
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intimidator

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The truck market in 5 years is going to look a lot different from what it looks like today.

Tesla is bringing capacity to build at least 300,000 trucks per year online. Looking at the factory size, perhaps as much as a 800,000 a year eventually. Those truck sales are coming out of someone‘s sales numbers.

Truck buyers are often very practical. If Tesla maintains their pricing position (rough parity with the Ford F-150) and maintains their technology & capability advantages (FSD, 500 mile range, air suspension), there are a lot of F150 owners who will jump ship.

One of the underpinnings of the Ford brand has been value. Tesla has a pretty big edge in the value department at the moment. That is going to lure a lot of potential buyers over. Because Tesla has huge cost advantages manufacturing EVs and the Cybertruck specifically, I expect they will be able to maintain that value advantage for some time to come.

Tesla is unlikely to take the whole truck market, but they are taking a good chunk of it. The big question is which existing brands are losing the most market share. Rivian is likewise taking share form someone.
Why do so many truck buyers purchase a Dodge Ram instead of a F150?
Why do so many other truck buyers select a GMC 1500 over a F150?
Why do still others only buy Toyota Tundras?

People have different tastes. I think the Cybertruck looks awesome. Others won't go near one.

As far as who is going to lose market share when/if the Cybertruck starts to be delivered to customers? Everyone?

It is a pure guess, but I think Ford, GM, Dodge, Toyota, etc will all lose a slice of their market share to Tesla. The pie will be divided differently. Although Toyota, which sells about 110,000 pickups in the US per year, may take the biggest hit because as their volume goes down it really messes with their economies of scale. Watch their NASCAR sponsorship. If they cut that...that is them throwing in the towel.
 

Ogre

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Why do so many truck buyers purchase a Dodge Ram instead of a F150?
Why do so many other truck buyers select a GMC 1500 over a F150?
Why do still others only buy Toyota Tundras?

People have different tastes. I think the Cybertruck looks awesome. Others won't go near one.

As far as who is going to lose market share when/if the Cybertruck starts to be delivered to customers? Everyone?

It is a pure guess, but I think Ford, GM, Dodge, Toyota, etc will all lose a slice of their market share to Tesla. The pie will be divided differently. Although Toyota, which sells about 110,000 pickups in the US per year, may take the biggest hit because as their volume goes down it really messes with their economies of scale. Watch their NASCAR sponsorship. If they cut that...that is them throwing in the towel.
A lot of GM/ Ford people bought GM/ Ford cars until Toyota and Honda arrived.

A lot of people who bought Toyota/ Honda cars for years own a Tesla now.

Turns out if someone wants something and their company doesn’t offer it, people switch. In the 80s, Dodge, GM, and Ford only had unreliable, inefficient cars so people switched. Right now, few companies have good electric cars and people are again switching.

You are spot on though, the pie is getting sliced differently. If the Cybertruck turns out to be a truly terrible work truck, maybe it’ll just be a momentary splash in the market. Don’t really know. I do think paradigm shifts will outweigh brand loyalty though and there will be a lot of people trying out different brands. If Ford gets their stuff together faster than any other truck brand, maybe they will pick up share.
 

happy intruder

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A lot of GM/ Ford people bought GM/ Ford cars until Toyota and Honda arrived.

A lot of people who bought Toyota/ Honda cars for years own a Tesla now.

Turns out if someone wants something and their company doesn’t offer it, people switch. In the 80s, Dodge, GM, and Ford only had unreliable, inefficient cars so people switched. Right now, few companies have good electric cars and people are again switching.

You are spot on though, the pie is getting sliced differently. If the Cybertruck turns out to be a truly terrible work truck, maybe it’ll just be a momentary splash in the market. Don’t really know. I do think paradigm shifts will outweigh brand loyalty though and there will be a lot of people trying out different brands. If Ford gets their stuff together faster than any other truck brand, maybe they will pick up share.
agree.......but I do not believe the Cybertruck will be an Edsel..
 

SwampNut

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I sold my Gladiator yesterday. I just hate ICE so much, I never drive it. I loved that truck...until the day the M3 arrived. It's been fueled once since then (April).

Why do people buy a Gladiator instead of a Tacoma? Actually that's an easy one, the Taco is a steaming pile of shit. But why instead of...any other decent mid-size truck if there is one? Dunno.

So for now, truckless until the CT ships.
 

Throwcomputer

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I fully expect Cybertruck volume to be half a million a year or more by the end of 2024.

A giga press cranks out 40 trucks per hour.

Ford won’t be remotely competitive until after they complete their battery factory in 2025. (Assuming they complete it by 2025).
Agreed.. and your estimate is low cause they make 350k just with 1 giga press. Guessing they will have at least 2 for CT production, if not more.
 

Ogre

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Agreed.. and your estimate is low cause they make 350k just with 1 giga press. Guessing they will have at least 2 for CT production, if not more.
Well they gotta have 2, one front and one back!

I think it’s more like 250k per gigapress per year (roughly running 75 percent of the time 365 days a year) but that is hairsplitting. Then as I mentioned above, 2 Giga presses running at a time for each 250k volume

So 4 presses, half a million units. Of course they might run 3 full shifts and get near 350k each press for your 750k.
 
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