Ogre

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Might not be so expensive if these get put all over:
https://newatlas.com/transport/parallel-systems-autonomous-battery-electric-freight-rail-haulage/

Those disused sidings could easily up the cargo capacity of modern rail. And trucks.

-Crissa
Those are pretty cool.

Curious thought. Musk talks about Robo Taxi, but Robo-Freight is just as interesting.

You want to move your car? You call a Robo-sled, a flat topped vehicle for moving cars. It rolls up, backs up to your driveway and extends some ramps. TeslaBot secures tow straps, it pulls your car up onto the platform, then the skate delivers it to the destination. It could also work for emergency towing. A Robo Taxi would arrive at the same time for the passengers.
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FutureBoy

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Understandably.

I am disappointed I may never get a CyberTruck. Most likely it won't happen...sigh.

He is however a visionary, and has accomplished a lot. But his mind gets too far out there and what he thinks should be doable, turns out to be very hard. The Semi, CyberTruck, Roadster, and even FSD he promised and will be late on all of them. I think someday the Semi will happen. And Full Self Driving we should know by 2023 if it will happen.
I would argue that Semi, CyberTruck, and Roadster are not really so hard. The real hard part is the batteries. If the batteries were fully developed and available, the Semi, CyberTruck, and Roadster would be coming out. But while we are waiting for batteries, Elon keeps tinkering and adding more features to the vehicles. Oh, and the factories. If the batteries had been available earlier, I’m sure Elon would have built the new factories earlier. As Elon is want to say, production is hard. But Tesla knows how to make that happen. Production is still complicated but not the same kind of hard now that the batteries have been. In my opinion at least.
 

Ogre

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I would argue that Semi, CyberTruck, and Roadster are not really so hard. The real hard part is the batteries. If the batteries were fully developed and available, the Semi, CyberTruck, and Roadster would be coming out. But while we are waiting for batteries, Elon keeps tinkering and adding more features to the vehicles. Oh, and the factories. If the batteries had been available earlier, I’m sure Elon would have built the new factories earlier. As Elon is want to say, production is hard. But Tesla knows how to make that happen. Production is still complicated but not the same kind of hard now that the batteries have been. In my opinion at least.
One thing which came out of this which was very interesting. For perhaps the first time ever, they said cell supply is not a constraint.

Now that is likely in the context of Model Y Production… but still very good.
 

Alan

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One thing which came out of this which was very interesting. For perhaps the first time ever, they said cell supply is not a constraint.

Now that is likely in the context of Model Y Production… but still very good.
When they figure out how to add more silicone to the batteries without the expansion and contraction tearing the batteries apart that’s when I think we will see the semi, roadster and cybertruck. They have been trying for at least 6 yrs . The first 90kw batteries had higher silicone levels and had problems so they had to back off. That was around 2015-16.
 

Ogre

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When they figure out how to add more silicone to the batteries without the expansion and contraction tearing the batteries apart that’s when I think we will see the semi, roadster and cybertruck. They have been trying for at least 6 yrs . The first 90kw batteries had higher silicone levels and had problems so they had to back off. That was around 2015-16.
Yeah, that’s kind of the key to fast charging. It’s in the works for sure.

I don’t think that’s behind this delay though. I think they just want to get that backlog cleared up
 


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Yeah, that’s kind of the key to fast charging. It’s in the works for sure.

I don’t think that’s behind this delay though. I think they just want to get that backlog cleared up
It provides a higher energy density. More power for a given volume and weight of the battery.
Since it has around 10 times the energy density of graphite, silicon has attracted plenty of attention from researchers as a potential anode material for lithium-ion batteries.Apr 13, 2021
 

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i dont believe this man's word anymore, his word got broken too many times.
I really, really hate to say this but I agree with you. Maybe I am still in shock. I LOVE our Model 3 and I am CERTAIN that I will love the Model Y even more, but what I REALLY want is the Cybertruck, and I am not getting any younger :-( The truth may hurt but I would rather know what is going on and deal with it than all this mumbo jumbo.
 

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.I am disappointed I may never get a CyberTruck. Most likely it won't happen...sigh.
Why? It's not delayed any more than the Silverado.

Those are pretty cool.

Curious thought. Musk talks about Robo Taxi, but Robo-Freight is just as interesting.

You want to move your car? You call a Robo-sled, a flat topped vehicle for moving cars. It rolls up, backs up to your driveway and extends some ramps. TeslaBot secures tow straps, it pulls your car up onto the platform, then the skate delivers it to the destination. It could also work for emergency towing. A Robo Taxi would arrive at the same time for the passengers.
That was Elon's idea for the Boring Company vehicle, if you saw the original concept pieces. But it fell way behind as Tesla focused on getting out vehicles cheaply.

-Crissa
 
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LDRHAWKE

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The delays are hugely annoying and insulting. I have been as loyal a Tesla owner as there ever was; I had easily 15 people order Tesla's at my advice. I started with a Signature Model S then another S and a model X. One of the first to order the CyberTruck and patiently waiting for this groundbreaking, inspirational Truck. I returned my Model X after the lease was up and ordered a two year lease on a 2021 model S until the first promised date for CT came and went. Then after waiting 3 or 4 months they said the delay on the ordered 2021 Model S "was indefinite." So, without a vehicle I had no choice but to buy a "Temporary" Gas burning used Toyota Tundra UGH!! This was when the new estimate was that production was going to start on the CyberTruck the end of 2021. Now I have my doubts they will even build the thing. It appears they made the business decision to prioritise the Model Y and others over the Cyber Truck. Yes it is annoying and insulting they would promise like this and far, far from deliver. If you can't promise and deliver than underpromise and overdeliver. Clearly neither is possible with the CyberTruck. It's a damn shame. I guess I'll be purchasing the first fully electric Truck that goes into production which ever one comes first. It won't be a Tesla CyberTruck, we can be sure of that if ever. This Sucks.
Good idea....we should all cancel our Cybertruck orders and order Chevy or Ford electric trucks and listen to their delay excuses instead.
 
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I would argue that Semi, CyberTruck, and Roadster are not really so hard. The real hard part is the batteries. If the batteries were fully developed and available, the Semi, CyberTruck, and Roadster would be coming out. But while we are waiting for batteries, Elon keeps tinkering and adding more features to the vehicles. Oh, and the factories. If the batteries had been available earlier, I’m sure Elon would have built the new factories earlier. As Elon is want to say, production is hard. But Tesla knows how to make that happen. Production is still complicated but not the same kind of hard now that the batteries have been. In my opinion at least.
I don't think it is batteries that are holding the CyberTruck in concept vehicle mode. That would have been easy for Elon to say and use it as an out.

Yes, Tesla has been successful solving challenges in the past, but that does not mean they can solve everything. Or in a timely manner.

If Tesla wasn't building Model Ys and Model 3s as fast as humanly possible, then they could spend time working on the final engineering hurdles for the CyberTruck.

But Elon made it clear they have more engineering to do on CyberTruck, partly due to trying to make it "affordable" with all the tech they promised to put in it.

My guess is the Quad motor, they announced would come first, is probably coming in at $85,000+ retail and they are going back to try and re-engineer aspects of the CT to try to get the costs down. Fact is the CT has been pushed back to "hopefully" 2023. In Elon speak, since he always over promises on timelines, I am guessing 2024 before a decent amount of trucks roll out of the factory.
 


LDRHAWKE

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I don't think it is batteries that are holding the CyberTruck in concept vehicle mode. That would have been easy for Elon to say and use it as an out.

Yes, Tesla has been successful solving challenges in the past, but that does not mean they can solve everything. Or in a timely manner.

If Tesla wasn't building Model Ys and Model 3s as fast as humanly possible, then they could spend time working on the final engineering hurdles for the CyberTruck.

But Elon made it clear they have more engineering to do on CyberTruck, partly due to trying to make it "affordable" with all the tech they promised to put in it.

My guess is the Quad motor, they announced would come first, is probably coming in at $85,000+ retail and they are going back to try and re-engineer aspects of the CT to try to get the costs down. Fact is the CT has been pushed back to "hopefully" 2023. In Elon speak, since he always over promises on timelines, I am guessing 2024 before a decent amount of trucks roll out of the factory.
One big difference is he has production line in Austin nearly complete waiting to start rolling off Cyber Trucks.
 

Ogre

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That was Elon's idea for the Boring Company vehicle, if you saw the original concept pieces. But it fell way behind as Tesla focused on getting out vehicles cheaply.
It is kind of funny, Apple went through this too.

People assume that when you have enough money you can just snap your fingers and make things happen or buy companies to do things. I’m sure there are people who think Tesla should just acquire Rivian for their truck team.

To build great products, it takes a rare kind of talent. Tesla’s product is factories. Rivian doesn’t have the talent to build a Cyborg Factory… they might develop it, but they don’t have it yet. If the talent pool for this kind of engineering was super deep, they might be able to acquire or hire their way into it. But building these factories is F&$king hard and there are only a few people able to do it well. You can’t just spread those people thinner and thinner and fill in with mediocre help.
 

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And there's only so much you can move expertise around.

Everyone understands you can't just drop a line worker in as an engineer, but there's only so much you can swap around engineers, too!

Part of that is you have to keep them interested, just like any other worker. Bored workers work badly or go elsewhere. Part of that is skills - the guys implementing the robotics aren't exactly the same guys working on the vehicle design. But the guys engineering out the Y factory ramp are probably the same guys as engineering out the Cybertruck ramp up.

And as I have pointed out: The Optimus stuff highly overlaps with the FSD and factory guys, but in a way which makes both of them more efficient. The same software which makes robotics arms more efficient is the one that makes Optimus have arms. The software which guesses the navigation of pedestrians for FSD is similar to what Optimus will need to navigate itself. And they'll need to be able to make the same 'remember what choices it make a second ago' rather than just be a set of artificial feelings about what's best to do. You know, AI stuff.

-Crissa
 

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I think the root cause of the production delay is the extremely tight supply of computer chips and the lack of mass production for 4680 battery cells. Why rush a new product to market when you can't purchase the critical parts and pieces to assemble it. Tesla and it's battery partners need to spit out 4680's like tootsie rolls before volume production can begin.

Each Dual Motor Cybertruck reportedly takes almost 900 cells and double that for the Quad Motor version.

My takeaway from the earnings call is that Tesla won't start volume production until the summer of 2023 IF the supply chain gets back to normal. If it doesn't we are looking at 2024, another 2-years.

I'm glad I hedged my bets with early Lightning, Canoo pickup, R1T and hybrid Tundra Pro reservations. My next pickup is definitely going to be a BEV or hybrid.
The supply chain for any EV related components won't find its normal for 10 years due to the extreme influx of competition. Tesla has an edge because they are already making a lot of their own supply and I think the key will be them either keep innovating and making more of their own products where the supply is limited or magically securing supply, but one thing is for sure and that is that the market is shifting and their competition for supply is only going to keep increasing. Sounds like they need to start a chip factory.
 

LDRHAWKE

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The supply chain for any EV related components won't find its normal for 10 years due to the extreme influx of competition. Tesla has an edge because they are already making a lot of their own supply and I think the key will be them either keep innovating and making more of their own products where the supply is limited or magically securing supply, but one thing is for sure and that is that the market is shifting and their competition for supply is only going to keep increasing. Sounds like they need to start a chip factory.

As usual Musk is one step ahead.

Elon Musk Fed Up with the Chip Shortage, He May Buy Tesla a Semiconductor Plant
Home > News > Industry
28 May 2021, 07:07 UTC ·
by Bogdan Popa
Tesla Cybertruck Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023 bogdan-popa-64


The global shortage of chips has forced carmakers to take unprecedented measures in an attempt to reduce the impact on their operations, but unfortunately for the industry, many ended up temporarily halting production because there was no other way around it.
Tesla Cybertruck Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023 ge-he-may-buy-tesla-a-semiconductor-plant-162105-7
1 photo
Most carmakers simply didn’t have enough chips to install on their cars, so suspending the operations and working on reduced hours was most often the only way to go.

But Elon Musk has reportedly come up with another solution to the global chip shortage. The Financial Timeswrites that Tesla could end up buying its very own chip plant, just to make sure it has permanent access to semiconductors, and therefore it doesn’t need to wait for its orders to be shipped.

This sounds crazy even for a company as rich as Tesla, but it looks like the whole plan of taking over a chip-making facility could end up costing the company no less than $20 billion.

That’s not necessarily a lot given Tesla is currently valued at over $607 billion, while Elon Musk has an estimated net worth of $151 billion, therefore still being one of the richest people on the planet.

But on the other hand, buying a chip factory just for Tesla doesn’t seem to be a priority right now, as the company is said to be involved in direct talks with a series of suppliers in Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States for a different and a lot more affordable approach.

Tesla wants to build chip inventory that would help prevent a shortage, thus trying to convince suppliers to ship orders in advance.

At the end of the day, whatever Tesla is planning to do, there’s a chance it’s not the only carmaker thinking of all sorts of ways to deal with the crazy global chip shortage. But on the other hand, not everybody has Tesla’s financial power, so buying a semiconductor plant could end up becoming Elon’s exclusive wild spending.
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