Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[MAJMurphy]

I’m a bit perplexed why anyone believes these new dates. As an R&D exec for many years, if you announce a delay of >1y, then you are holding back some risk in that statement, and that is your accuracy, i.e., it could be 2 or 3y. If you announce a delay of a few weeks, you have risk in that statement on the order of weeks.

Also, in 1-2y from now, technology will have advanced 2-3x, per Moore’s Law. So I wonder if all the tech needs revision now too, adding to a future delay again. For example, a monitor, cameras, sensors, in today’s design will be antiques in a product delivered 2-3y from now.

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[John K]

Auto manufacturing tech is always a decade or so old. Can’t chase bleeding edge with recall reaper over the shoulder.

i would be curious and which reservation number gets the next feture upgrade.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

the problem here is that Rivian is almost ready and GM and Ford will be before Tesla. people in need of a truck and still puzzled about CT's appearance will go for another brand at this point. this is no good news for us Tesla shareholders. As a future CT owner, however, I am ok with any delay that makes CT better.

it’s not going to be a fundamental issue for the share price. The later delivery will be just like Model 3 being delivered after Chevy Bolt.

Neither the Ford or GM are planning the production volume Tesla is.
Teslas vertical integration from the steel to the batteries will ensure they dominate every market they compete in.

 

[Tiaganon]

Well that messes my timeline up! My current F150 lease runs out late 2022...fingers crossed! Wonder what's going to happen to the price?

 

[Ogre]

I’m a bit perplexed why anyone believes these new dates. As an R&D exec for many years, if you announce a delay of >1y, then you are holding back some risk in that statement, and that is your accuracy, i.e., it could be 2 or 3y. If you announce a delay of a few weeks, you have risk in that statement on the order of weeks.

I suspect this is why they have been so slow making any change in the date projection. In fact if you notice, there is no new date projection coming from Tesla, this is an internal staff only meeting. I'm sure they knew it would get leaked, but I'm pretty sure they don't want to drop any new date until they have it nailed down a bit better.

Also, in 1-2y from now, technology will have advanced 2-3x, per Moore’s Law. So I wonder if all the tech needs revision now too, adding to a future delay again. For example, a monitor, cameras, sensors, in today’s design will be antiques in a product delivered 2-3y from now.

I doubt this. They have too much invested in equipment and too many pre-orders sitting on the hook.

Also, that's not really how Moore's Law works. Particularly not at this stage in the game. Tesla is planning on putting their yet-to-be-manufactured microprocessor in their truck. Technology isn't going to advance while the fabs are spinning up.

 

[Jelloiron]

Well that messes my timeline up! My current F150 lease runs out late 2022...fingers crossed!

Buy it out of the lease and trade it when the CT comes in. The purchase option on it has to be under what it's worth right now.

 

[happy intruder]

I suspect this is why they have been so slow making any change in the date projection. In fact if you notice, there is no new date projection coming from Tesla, this is an internal staff only meeting. I'm sure they knew it would get leaked, but I'm pretty sure they don't want to drop any new date until they have it nailed down a bit better.



I doubt this. They have too much invested in equipment and too many pre-orders sitting on the hook.

Also, that's not really how Moore's Law works. Particularly not at this stage in the game. Tesla is planning on putting their yet-to-be-manufactured microprocessor in their truck. Technology isn't going to advance while the fabs are spinning up.

yea....elon is teasing us with the "FSD button on 25 Sep 2?" hahahaha

 

[SpaceYooper]

First thing first. I'm good with the delay. Fits perfectly I to my plan to retire from active duty the end of next year, get a job, stabilize income, then buy this sweet ass truck of Neo's dreams.

Second. According to the specs of the competition, this is still the only truck I'd even think of considering given my range requirements and today's charging network. No other truck even comes close, and I doubt they will even 5 years from now, much less 2.

Third. Maybe just maybe the good hearted Elon just felt the CT was too dominant for today's full size truck market. He knows he can't produce all the full size trucks us North Americans require. He believes more EV trucks are needed to really make a difference. So...he's giving the competition time to improve, time to compete, time to survive and save their asses. Who's to say their wasn't a secret pre-meeting to this publicly released meeting where the secret pre-meeting was Elon and the groveling competition CEOs begging for mercy. To which he obliged because it's what's best for us all.

 

[Dids]

@Dids 8 pages and I didn't see any comment from you. I took the under on your prediction. If you scratch out 2021, and put 2022, I'll double down.

? never blink.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

It will probably depend on where the foundation is being prepared... if it's on the west side of the casting area, it's presumably another 6,000 ton press. If it's on the east side... then it could actually be the first 8,000 ton press.

You do not know that. No one does. They haven’t made a single pad on the east side yet. What does that mean? Nothing.

 

[Gordon E Peterson II]

You do not know that. No one does. They haven’t made a single pad on the east side yet. What does that mean? Nothing.

It will be much easier to move stuff between similar Gigapresses than different ones... it just makes sense to have one overhead crane for 8000 ton presses and one for 6000 ton presses. They are also more likely to have similar infrastructure needs and arrangements. And there isn't (yet?) an overhead crane to move stuff between the eastern side and the western side of the casting building.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Nope. No point since FSD doesn't go where I'd want a pickup to go.

Is it going to navigate the isles of the hardware store to where I can pick up my lumber? Go to the marked spot in the landscaping supply outfit where I need to wait for the tractor to dump bark? Navigate to the unmarked campsite I want to go to which may not even be on a map?

Maybe it makes sense for a 2 seater taxi car used mainly for moving people from one part of the city to another, but I can't see being FSD only for a long long time for my uses.

I have seen YouTube videos of Tesla FSD going off-road but there were tracks. I am guessing that you want to go someplace without tracks even. For that, and just about any off-roading, one would want to drive oneself for the pure fun and challenge of it.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

It will be much easier to move stuff between similar Gigapresses than different ones... it just makes sense to have one overhead crane for 8000 ton presses and one for 6000 ton presses. They are also more likely to have similar infrastructure needs and arrangements. And there isn't (yet?) an overhead crane to move stuff between the eastern side and the western side of the casting building.

They haven’t installed cranes on the north end of the building or on the east side. The gigapresses are standalone machines; they make their gizmo and probably put it on a conveyor. Bada boom. The cranes I suspect are for changing dies. I am not challenging your logic. I am challenging your statement, made as though it was fact. It just isn’t. It’s like Jeff Roberts declaring that they alleyway will be a plastic s factory or that the central area will be the drivetrain area. Maybe but not surely. Let’s stick to the ‘surely’s unless we stick an IMHO onto it.

 

[jhogan2424]

I understand there are lots of hurdles to get this thing to production and many have been impossible for Tesla to foresee or control, so not entirely Tesla’s fault and certainly no hard feelings toward Tesla but the fact remains the CT will not be available anytime soon. Most people are not willing or as in my case simply can not wait years upon years to purchase a vehicle. I have tried to to keep my head up and wait on the CT but at this point my only choice is to buy an F250 and be content with it, and even those are scarce right now. If CT ever makes it to market in the future I’ll still buy one but definitely no longer holding my breath for it. I’ll just try to forget about it until one day in the distant future someone asks me if I saw that “Tesla truck” that drove through town this morning and at that point I’ll know they are real and can be had.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Private landowners who own forested land could be given tax incentives to "de-brush" their properties. All the brush, branches, dead trees, etc. (that's the stuff that fuels forest fires. The big trees just end up suffering as a result) would be cut down, picked up, and hauled to businesses that grind it up into mulch or other useful materials. Or just hauled out to an open field and incinerated.
Cybr on's idea would be implemented on gov-owned or public land.

Private land owners are already required to clear underbrush. We are talking about TINY plots of land. The state and federal governments own the vast majority of land that is burning (ever burns). So our tax dollars would/should go to clearing the brush. Why no return to the native Indian tradition of controlled burns?

I am sorry but how is this related to Cybertruck production?

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