Video: Cybertruck in off-road suspension mode / highest ride height

[uff_da]

Uhhh quite possible you have your before EOY 23’. This year. I’m serious.

I’m seeing more and more tooling show up. Conveyors, more molds, etc. stuff I haven’t posted up yet. Couple dozen more assembly bots.

Nobody can predict the unknown problems that production will have. I think it will be a very low probability that there is any meaningful volume this year. You can have 99% of the equipment, materials, and training and still not make a single unit. Volume production is about the least lucky process or part and with that many new parts at once it means there is very likely a slow ramp.

This also aligns with what Elon said. I would take a wild guess at mid 2024 for volume production ramping towards the end of 2024. A few token deliveries in 2023 that will take some major workaround to get produced.

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[Tinker71]

Remember the last major release was the Y. They beat the estimate. I think Elon/Tesla has learned to sandbag a little but stay aggressive. But you are right. There are a lot of new things with the CT.

 

[cybguy]

Put in my order on 11/22/2019, supposed to be 44,000 in line. Hope for it in 2023 sometime.

Not a chance. Most likely 2025.

 

[Cebliminal]

Love the hight being adjustable over such a wide range - agree tires dont look proportional but tires that fill the wheel wells when lifted would probably limit overall suspension adjustment range - so probably more of a useful off-road feature than an visually pleasing one...aka my 2500 with 4.5" lift and 35" tires is proportional and looks good to me - but fixed suspension / non height adjustable...so for me personally I'm good to go but hoping for a bit more aggressive tire that helps in the visual department.

Ya I think the tires look weak way to small for off road

 

[SentinelOne]

Not a chance. Most likely 2025.

Agree not 23 but 2025 for 44k in line? Seems late to me. Some % of drop outs (intl, etc), if they start with 3 or 4 motor? and if they build 5-10k of them in 23 you dont think 44k in line will be delivered in 24?

 

[Ogre]

Agree not 23 but 2025 for 44k in line? Seems late to me. Some % of drop outs (intl, etc), if they start with 3 or 4 motor? and if they build 5-10k of them in 23 you dont think 44k in line will be delivered in 24?

Yeah, you are spot on. Some people are perpetual pessimists.

At this point it’s all an observation game. We’ve seen the press, we’ve seen the robots going in. Looks like they are testing the press now, or testing a press now anyhow. We‘re looking at beta trucks. Everything we know needs to happen prior to production is happening.

Once production starts, they will produce at least 30k in the first year of production, very likely 2-3 times that. That’s likely July - July. By July 2024, things will go much much faster.

Unless production starts in September, you will have your truck by April.

 

[cybguy]

Yeah, you are spot on. Some people are perpetual pessimists.

I've been an optimist when it comes to the Cybertruck. The night of the unveiling I placed my preorders believing Tesla could begin deliveries before 2023 despite the huge cost and supply issues with the new batteries needed. Sure, if I really needed a new pickup by late 2021 I wouldn't have been delusional enough to place an early order for the Cybertruck. That's reality, not pessismism. My estimates currently are really best case scenarios. There could still be significant delays because of countless things that could still go wrong. I'm assuming some on here are still smarting because they really thought the Cybertruck would be sold prior to 2022. BTW I've also listened to the AI experts (not car salesman Musk) and for the last 3 years I've been under the impression that Level 5 autonomous driving will be available by 2028-2030. Unfortunately gullibility is a very common human trait.

 

[Ogre]

I've been an optimist when it comes to the Cybertruck. The night of the unveiling I placed my preorders believing Tesla could begin deliveries before 2023 despite the huge cost and supply issues with the new batteries needed. Sure, if I really needed a new pickup by late 2021 I wouldn't have been delusional enough to place an early order for the Cybertruck. That's reality, not pessismism. My estimates currently are really best case scenarios. There could still be significant delays because of countless things that could still go wrong. I'm assuming some on here are still smarting because they really thought the Cybertruck would be sold prior to 2022. BTW I've also listened to the AI experts (not car salesman Musk) and for the last 3 years I've been under the impression that Level 5 autonomous driving will be available by 2028-2030. Unfortunately gullibility is a very common human trait.

Engaging in blind conjecture whether it’s optimistic or pessimistic is pointless. Watch what happens, look at the baseline established previously. Our best baseline is the Model Y ramp right now which would easily put the Cybertruck in his driveway sometime in 2024.

If you got nothing aside from baseless conjecture and nameless “experts” to quote, then you are just being spewing pointless pessimism.

 

[cybguy]

Engaging in blind conjecture whether it’s optimistic or pessimistic is pointless. Watch what happens, look at the baseline established previously. Our best baseline is the Model Y ramp right now which would easily put the Cybertruck in his driveway sometime in 2024.

If you got nothing aside from baseless conjecture and nameless “experts” to quote, then you are just being spewing pointless pessimism.

Agreed look at the Model Y ramp up as long as that is the Model Y with 4680s. I also think early preorder uptake will be very high and then gradually decrease. Early preorders are the hard core. Also with1.5 million preorders behind you many with doubts will buy it and resale for a profit if they don't like it.
I trust predictions from those I know personally at MIT in AI over Musk when he turns on his car salesman pitch.

 

[Ogre]

Agreed look at the Model Y ramp up as long as that is the Model Y with 4680s. I also think early preorder uptake will be very high and then gradually decrease. Early preorders are the hard core.

Production start to end of 2024 is 18 months. By the time Model Y hits 18 months, they are on track to be producing 4,000 - 5,000/ week. They were at 3,000 end of year. So at the 18 month mark we’re looking at quite a bit more than 50,000 Model Ys during the first year of production.

 

[Alan]

I think you mean 4 to 5 thousand a week. Shanghai produces close to 3000 a day.

 

[Ogre]

I think you mean 4 to 5 thousand a week. Shanghai produces close to 3000 a day.

Yeah, fixed it.

Berlin just hit 4k/ week and has only been online for 10 months now.

The idea that Tesla will take 18+ months to produce 30k Cybertruck is a joke.

 

[charliemagpie]

Whilst the scaling will be slow.. we need to define Elon slow.

Elon said others manufacturers will one day catch up (batteries?) but he also said Tesla will maintain a manufacturing advantage.

We must take note of that quote. CT manufacturing process will be accelerated to new levels.

 

[alan auerbach]

Remember the last major release was the Y. They beat the estimate. I think Elon/Tesla has learned to sandbag a little but stay aggressive. But you are right. There are a lot of new things with the CT.

But the Y, in terms of how it's made, is just a modestly modified 3 (of which almost a million were produced). The CT requires a lot more first-time stuff.

 

[Ogre]

But the Y, in terms of how it's made, is just a modestly modified 3 (of which almost a million were produced). The CT requires a lot more first-time stuff.

CT also deletes the entire paint shop which is a pretty significant chunk of space, manufacturing steps, and time during manufacturing. Painting requires a finicky spray the vehicle, then you have to have a huge drying area, robots to stack the drying cars, robots to retrieve them. Getting rid of paint is a big deal.

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