What would it take to make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck?

[YDR37]

cybertruck sales since 2024 numbers are going to be really bad for 2025. Maybe even half is my guess

The S/X have much higher margins than the CT. If the CT truly sells less than 25k this year, I'd think it would be at risk more than theirs highest margin vehicle in the S.

So far, 2025 is shaping up to be a tough year for expensive EVs, including the Cybertruck. It's quite possible that 2025 CT sales will be down from 2024. However, the same is true for the Model S and Model X. Here's how US sales looked through 1Q 2025:

6,406 Cybertruck
3,843 Model X
1,280 Model S

OK, none of these numbers are great -- but the CT is outselling the MS by 5 to 1. It's probably true that MS has higher margins, but if the CT is selling at 5X the volume, it may still be generating more profit overall.

The CT does have a vulnerability that the S/X lack. Many (perhaps most) CT sales are the $79,990 AWD version that qualifies for the $7,500 federal tax credit. If the tax credit goes away -- and this is very possible -- then CT sales would likely suffer. The S/X wouldn't be affected, because they aren't eligible for the tax credit anyway (technically, the X is eligible for the tax credit, but only if it is priced below $80,000, and Tesla's current pricing starts at $85,000).

On the other hand, the S/X have a vulnerability that the CT lacks. The S/X have historically been marketed in Europe and Asia, but they are only made in the US, which means that they are at risk in a trade war. Tesla has already been forced to pull the S/X from the Chinese market, because high tariffs were recently imposed on American cars. The CT isn't affected by Chinese or European tariffs, because it is only sold in North America.

Sponsored

 

[malinecentral]

Not sure that is a good comparison of sales numbers considering that the X (Late2015/2016) and S (mid-2012) have been around for years and the CT just 1.5 yrs (Nov-2023).

We'd need to see how the CT does over 2+ years and especially in the 2025 pivotal year.

The S hit 50K one year and had some 30K years. The X had some 30K years.

But the 3 and the Y butchered those sales numbers by offering similar functionality in a smaller cheaper package.

Perhaps we see Mini CyberTruck soon. ?

 

[Outdoors]

I find the conversation interesting. Car companies discontinue cars and trucks all the time. Those brands are usually part of larger OEM brands. Tesla hasn't done this yet. Discontinuing the original roadster doesn't count. Financially maybe one of few companies that could handle such a mistake.

Think Tesla is, and always has been in uncharted territory.

 

[jameskk]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

well you have to take all of this in context. the auto business is in the tank right now. but, I think the fact that Tesla has already paid back their development costs makes it likely to stick around albeit low volumes. Here is my take:

Once unsupervised FSD is released and people realize they can literally sit in the back seat and get work done or watch movies instead of having to drive, and can enroll their vehicle in a Robotaxi service to earn extra money, Tesla's sales will double almost overnight and continue to grow. At this point there will be a lot of people who buy a Cybertruck because of the utility, size, if not for the cool factor. I can see Home Depot and others buying these to make autonomous local deliveries. Dominos will probably be the first Pizza company to start doing autonomous Tesla deliveries... the TAM is gonna be crazy.

Right now, most people have no idea this is coming and or they think all companies will have this tech in just a year or so which is a big negative. Nobody has the massive amount of data to train the AI. I had a friend who was considering a Cybertruck because I told him about unsupervised FSD coming very soon etc..... then when he told the local GMC dealer what I said, they told him the Denali would have FSD via a software update within 1 year. He bought the freaking Denali. I told him that I would write him a check for $25,000 if his Denali ever gets FSD via a software update. OMG

Remember when Elon told reporters at the White House that Tesla planned to double production next year? That is why, this is the plan.

 

[RoboTaxi]

We dont know what it actually cost to produce these truck. The whole build process and design was built around this. For all we know they could sell them for $20k less and still make money.

 

[hemiarch]

Agreed, I think the X or S will get cut first, at least I hope that is the case.

I don’t think it will be a cut. They will spin it as a refresh and drastically readdress the ultimate goals of each model . By this I mean they are either going to make them cheaper cars like the 3 and y (less likely since those models already address that market segment) or they will go the low volume unobtainium route and make them very expensive luxury cars produced in smaller numbers than the current x or S.

 

[SCTesla]

So far, 2025 is shaping up to be a tough year for expensive EVs, including the Cybertruck. It's quite possible that 2025 CT sales will be down from 2024. However, the same is true for the Model S and Model X. Here's how US sales looked through 1Q 2025:

6,406 Cybertruck
3,843 Model X
1,280 Model S

OK, none of these numbers are great -- but the CT is outselling the MS by 5 to 1. It's probably true that MS has higher margins, but if the CT is selling at 5X the volume, it may still be generating more profit overall.

The CT does have a vulnerability that the S/X lack. Many (perhaps most) CT sales are the $79,990 AWD version that qualifies for the $7,500 federal tax credit. If the tax credit goes away -- and this is very possible -- then CT sales would likely suffer. The S/X wouldn't be affected, because they aren't eligible for the tax credit anyway (technically, the X is eligible for the tax credit, but only if it is priced below $80,000, and Tesla's current pricing starts at $85,000).

On the other hand, the S/X have a vulnerability that the CT lacks. The S/X have historically been marketed in Europe and Asia, but they are only made in the US, which means that they are at risk in a trade war. Tesla has already been forced to pull the S/X from the Chinese market, because high tariffs were recently imposed on American cars. The CT isn't affected by Chinese or European tariffs, because it is only sold in North America.

If you believe Troy, Tesla takes a loss on each CT sold that isn't a FS CB. If true, 6,000+ vehicles taking a loss. Troy said this before earnings that showed Tesla would have lost over $1 billion if not for the ZEV credits and bitcoin cash in. They won't have that luxury in Q2, typically Tesla spreads out their credits, but needed the money to show a profit.

 

[YDR37]

Not sure that is a good comparison of sales numbers considering that the X (Late2015/2016) and S (mid-2012) have been around for years and the CT just 1.5 yrs (Nov-2023).

We'd need to see how the CT does over 2+ years and especially in the 2025 pivotal year.

The S hit 50K one year and had some 30K years. The X had some 30K years.

Back in the day, the S/X sold in high volumes, for high prices, with high profit margins. Tesla was probably hoping to recapture that mojo with the Cybertruck.

It's true that the CT is not matching the historical success of the S/X. However, if Tesla decides to discontinue any of these models, the decision will be based on current sales, not historical sales. And currently, the CT sells better than the other two expensive Teslas.

But is the CT more profitable than the other two expensive Teslas? Some people think not ...

If you believe Troy, Tesla takes a loss on each CT sold that isn't a FS CB. If true, 6,000+ vehicles taking a loss.

I respect Troy's analyses. But if he's right about this, then the CT probably should have been discontinued yesterday.

 

[YDR37]

The EV truck market is just bad.

The BEV truck market is a failure.

It's true that no one has yet found the right formula for a successful EV truck. But maybe that's because all EV trucks offered so far have been big, expensive F-150 alternatives. Maybe the market would respond better to something smaller and cheaper, positioned as a Tacoma or Maverick alternative, No one has tried this yet.

So I personally want to see how the Slate does before writing off the EV truck market. I acknowledge that the Slate is vaporware at this time, that they have a long way to go to reach the production stage, and that there are many unanswered questions. But at least the stated goal -- a small, inexpensive EV truck -- seems like a step in the right direction.

 

[tingmo13]

right now the whole MSM/Social medias are Boy Cry Wolf, Sky is Falling & Grapes are Sour mentality-if people use their unbiased mindset Cybertruck will dominate the market. It will take time. ?

 

[Mini2nut]

No BEV pickup manufacturer has done well. Nobody. Tesla simply overestimated demand for a BEV pickup truck. It will remain a low volume product for the company no matter how many incentives or price cuts Tesla throws at it.

The public has spoken. They continue to purchase petroleum fueled F150, Ram and Silverado’s.

Ford sold 460,915 F150’s in 2024. Tesla sold 38,935 Cybertruck’s last year. 2024 will most likely be the best year for CT sales from a historical perspective.

 

[CTInProcess]

Soon it will outsell the Ford F-150 as promised by all Tesla loyalist, it’s going to happen, just give it more time.

It has already outsold the F-150 Trim Lightning the last 2 QTRS

 

[daviddjones1]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

When potential buyers really see how good and how much fun these TRUCKS are, the sales will increase. I have had 2 FORD 150’s which were great, navigator, Escalade , and Tahoe. The CT is far superior in all categories. The public is not being informed. Also people are buying these as their first truck. They probably don’t need a truck. They bought because of its uniqueness. I have talked to many truck owners and once they see first hand the features, they all said they would consider.
education and fighting the negative propaganda is an uphill battle. Needs to target existing truck owners.

 

[CybertruckCovers]

As I understand it, the X doesn't do particularly well. They still pump them out. I feel the Cybertruck will stay on the menu, albeit whittled down.

Agreed!

 

[Cyber111]

Well, unfortunately, now is not a time to get a good accurate measure regarding this subject. Because right now Tesla is by far the most unpopular EV company in the world. As most of us know only between 2.5 and 4% of the cybertruck orders in this country became actual sales. But I think that’s mostly because the deposit was only $100 and it was completely refundable. However, that means a whole lot of cybertrucks that have been put together aren’t being purchased. I’m sure happy that I got mine and I’m incredibly satisfied with the vehicle. It’s exceeded all of my expectations. Prior to this, I owned a 4 x 4 Ford E250 and a 4 x 4 Quigley converted van neither one of them compared to the cybertruck, not even close.

Sponsored