What would it take to make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck?

[AO-Pete]

Using round numbers, lets say they've delivered 50k Cybertrucks, at a gross margin of 20% (Tesla doesn't break this out by model, but their overall GM is 19.8%) and average sale price of $90k, they've made about $900M in gross profit. Is that enough to cover the R&D cost, factory build out, all the recalls and general service overhead? Maybe. They've invested a lot in figuring out how to bend the HFS, but have already said they're not going to use it again, so all that cost has to be absorbed by the CT revenue.

When Elon first rolled out the CT at the launch event, he said something along the lines of it not being for everyone (and that was at the lower price). It was his passion project (as was the X), and turns out he was right. Aside from the entire auto market being in a horrible situation right now, all the noise around Tesla has added to the woes, and the CT seems to take the brunt of that in the US, purely because it's so different, and recognizable.

So no, it's not going anywhere, but like S & X, it's likely regarded as a tier 2 product. That has nothing to do with prestige, but in terms of the resources allocated to it, which is entirely driven by demand and market conditions.

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[Lasttoy]

It will become a niche product unless Elon makes the decision to export it.
Then all hell will break lose. There is a demand. He just has to say EXPORT it.

 

[SCTesla]

Using round numbers, lets say they've delivered 50k Cybertrucks, at a gross margin of 20% (Tesla doesn't break this out by model, but their overall GM is 19.8%) and average sale price of $90k, they've made about $900M in gross profit. Is that enough to cover the R&D cost, factory build out, all the recalls and general service overhead? Maybe. They've invested a lot in figuring out how to bend the HFS, but have already said they're not going to use it again, so all that cost has to be absorbed by the CT revenue.

When Elon first rolled out the CT at the launch event, he said something along the lines of it not being for everyone (and that was at the lower price). It was his passion project (as was the X), and turns out he was right. Aside from the entire auto market being in a horrible situation right now, all the noise around Tesla has added to the woes, and the CT seems to take the brunt of that in the US, purely because it's so different, and recognizable.

So no, it's not going anywhere, but like S & X, it's likely regarded as a tier 2 product. That has nothing to do with prestige, but in terms of the resources allocated to it, which is entirely driven by demand and market conditions.

The GM per vehicle is down to 17.66% despite lowering COGS on all other models. The prevailing thought and why they were underwater without the ZEV credits/bitcoin is due to the CT and MY refresh, not just each vehicles, but everything associated with it.

 

[SCTesla]

It will become a niche product unless Elon makes the decision to export it.
Then all hell will break lose. There is a demand. He just has to say EXPORT it.

They already are planning that the SA and probably Australia (not confirmed, yet). It's not going to the EU or UK.

 

[Lasttoy]

Never say "not"
The safety issues will be overcome

 

[AO-Pete]

Never say "not"
The safety issues will be overcome

I don't think they will be, the pedestrian safety regulations in the UK/EU are far more stringent, the CT misses on many, many points (as would many other US trucks). That, and the fact that driving something the size of the CT would not be ideal for most owners, that's partly why truck sales, in general, are so low. In the UK, they're just not a thing, <2% of total vehicle sales. Businesses buy Ford Transits and the like, not pickup trucks.

 

[Cyberostachu]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

I know some prospective buyers got turned off by factors like sharp edges, hard to clean the steel body, and some reported recalls.
I believe what really turned off most buyers are the promised affordable prices to the foundation series which only elites could afford. Then, the ranged was not what's promised. I may be naive and i don't know the negative factors but is there room to make the battery pack 135 or 140 kwh to satisfy the fans? Tesla was over confident that it would sell 250K units next year because of the 2M reserved units. Tesla only started selling the non-foundation after people were already discouraged by the negative news of recalls, the feeling of being fooled regarding the price and range and finally Elon crossed to the party where republicans don't believe in climate changed and don't buy EVs. The believers of climate change who were his business foundation felt betrayed with his actions that some resorted to protests and vandalism. He can try going back to what he promised in 2019 and he'd get a 50/50 chance of success.
I may sound political but I still bought my cybertruck last February even when Elon Musk has already gone crazy. ? ? ?

 

[CyberGus]

Elon's DOGE shenanigans definitely impacted Tesla's image, fair or not.

I think it's time that Tesla starts advertising. Maybe a big Super Bowl commercial? ?

 

[HaulingAss]

I feel like just the fact that this question is even being considered by a group of Cybertruck Enthusiasts is enough to tell the outcome…

No Matt, we are not all of one hive mind. In fact, plenty of participants here are not even Cybertruck enthusiasts. Who they are is made obvious by their incessant negativity over trivial things. So don't read too much into what one person with a negative outlook thinks or says.

I came from an F-150 gasser and the Cybertruck leaves it in the dust on every single metric except for the fact it's 36 gallon tank gave it a bit more range. I haven't found that to be a problem with how ubiquitous Superchargers have become. No way could I ever go back to a gas truck. The Cybertruck is here to stay.

 

[VAF84]

No BEV pickup manufacturer has done well. Nobody. Tesla simply overestimated demand for a BEV pickup truck. It will remain a low volume product for the company no matter how many incentives or price cuts Tesla throws at it.

The public has spoken. They continue to purchase petroleum fueled F150, Ram and Silverado’s.

Ford sold 460,915 F150’s in 2024. Tesla sold 38,935 Cybertruck’s last year. 2024 will most likely be the best year for CT sales from a historical perspective.

When potential buyers really see how good and how much fun these TRUCKS are, the sales will increase. I have had 2 FORD 150’s which were great, navigator, Escalade , and Tahoe. The CT is far superior in all categories. The public is not being informed. Also people are buying these as their first truck. They probably don’t need a truck. They bought because of its uniqueness. I have talked to many truck owners and once they see first hand the features, they all said they would consider.
education and fighting the negative propaganda is an uphill battle. Needs to target existing truck owners.

I've said this repeatedly. These EV trucks need to make their way to normal people outside of urban areas so that these owners can share their experiences with their neighbors. I take my Sierra EV (previously a Lightning) on drilling rigs in rural areas. I'm usually the first person they have had a first hand experience with that drives an EV truck. For every one skeptic I get two genuinely curious about what it's like to live with, and just need to get pushed over the edge into buying one. One guy on my current project who is from Arkansas provided some anecdotal validation. He told me he's interested in an EV truck but had been telling his wife that he'd like to talk to someone who owns one because he only trusts what he gets from someone first hand.

Tesla, GM, Ford, need to offer unignorable discounts to tradespeople to get them hooked. It's going to take a major loss up front, but until friends and neighbors start owning these, sales will be slow. That's how Ford lured me into a Lightning, my first EV, with an insane discount I couldn't pass up. Now I love the EV driving experience and bought my second EV truck at the price of a comparable ICE to address range. Otherwise I'd still be driving ICE.

 

[SlegMD]

CT is safe with EM at the helm

 

[OldDirtyRobot]

Never say "not"
The safety issues will be overcome

Pedestrian regs aside, if you've driven in Europe its easy to understand why the CT is not a viable platform there. You rarely see full size pickups on the road period.

 

[OldDirtyRobot]

No Matt, we are not all of one hive mind. In fact, plenty of participants here are not even Cybertruck enthusiasts. Who they are is made obvious by their incessant negativity over trivial things. So don't read too much into what one person with a negative outlook thinks or says.

I came from an F-150 gasser and the Cybertruck leaves it in the dust on every single metric except for the fact it's 36 gallon tank gave it a bit more range. I haven't found that to be a problem with how ubiquitous Superchargers have become. No way could I ever go back to a gas truck. The Cybertruck is here to stay.

Amen, there is a consistent group in this forum who have no intention of owning a CT, and are just here to post FUD and spread negativity.

 

[pricedm]

Rivian 2025Q1 production numbers:
*produced 14,611 R1S, R1T, and EVD
*delivered 8,640
...and lowered full year production "guidance" to 40k - 46k vehicles.

When is RIvian going to discontinue the R1T truck? The R1S SUV is estimated around 75% of total Rivian vehicle sales.

This begs the question: what would sales look like if Tesla produced a "CyberSUV?" I would guess 5x more than Cybertruck.

 

[ModelC]

I dont care I got mine, going to drive this thing into the ground..

In the same camp. I have mine and I don't really care of the sell anymore, ever. This is the only vehicle I will drive as my main driver for a long time, and I usually get tired of cars at about the 10-month mark.

We are on month 13 and still excited to just find a reason to go for a FSD (supervised) excursion as far as possible. Need milk, honey? Sure. Ok I am skipping the stores from our house to 35 miles away and going that story to get it. Be back in an hour.

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