Jager
Active member
- First Name
- Jeff
- Joined
- May 25, 2020
- Threads
- 2
- Messages
- 43
- Reaction score
- 165
- Location
- Virginia
- Vehicles
- 2022 Model 3 LR AWD, Several Motorcycles
- Thread starter
- #1
On reveal night I still expected Tesla to go bankrupt.
That was my reason for waiting 56 days before pulling the trigger and dropping a C-note into Tesla’s coffers. By that time the reservation order number sequence had already ratcheted up 466,000 spots.
Subtracting out the estimate for non-Cybertruck reservations during that period, the tracker here puts me at 419,000 and change. A few months back the tracker estimated I might expect my truck mid-December of 2024. Now, as of this morning, it has pushed out that estimated delivery to mid-March of 2025.
Maybe.
The two great unknowns, of course, are how fast the ramp proceeds; and the conversion rate of those pre-orders in front of us. Most of us here will be watching both those progressions with bated breath.
Tesla obviously has a much more nuanced view of what the ramp entails than us mere peons on the sideline. But even their looking glass remains mighty opaque this early in the game. That ramp could easily surprise either up or down.
But their cautious hope, expressed by none other than Elon himself, is to hit full production (~250K units) in 2025. Mind you, that doesn’t mean delivering 250K units in 2025.
If we all climb aboard Elon’s fast train (named Optimism & Hope) and Tesla succeeds in hitting that full production target of 250K in, say, December of 2025, there’s one fair certainty buried in that success: Tesla has to make pretty good progress in 2024. Hitting their 2025 bogey doesn’t happen if they don’t enter the year already running at a decent clip.
What’s a pretty good clip? How many Cybertrucks must Tesla deliver in 2024?
I dunno. But I’ll throw a dart and call it 50-70K.
Turning to the pre-order conversion rate, I’ll point out that those of us here are a biased minority. We see that today in what appears to be a fairly high conversion rate among those who received Foundation Series invites. And we’re going to see it tomorrow when the FS ends and regular trims start to move.
Even before the Delivery Event a few weeks ago, many of us never expected the conversion rate to be terribly high. A refundable hundred bucks doesn’t exactly demand a lot of commitment. If you had asked me over Thanksgiving what I thought it might be, I’d have probably guessed something on the order of 30-40%.
For good or for ill, that Delivery event changed everything. After that event I said we would see a conversion rate somewhere between 10-20%.
I’m just a nobody, of course. And my guess has little more credence than a dart throw.
But analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect something on the order of 2.2 million Tesla deliveries in 2024. That figure is reasonable, I think, given Elon’s earlier hope to hit 2 million deliveries in 2023 (a figure they will miss by a couple hundred thousand); and taking into account softening EV (and ICE) sales because of interest rates and other economic headwinds.
And Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, expects the Cybertruck will represent 3% of Tesla’s volume in 2024. I don’t know who Tom Narayan is, but someone is paying him to make guesses on this stuff, so we could imagine his dart throw is better than mine.
Three percent of 2.2 million is 66,000 Cybertrucks. That’s what Tom thinks will happen.
My conversion rate guess of 10-20%... putting a stake in the ground right in the middle of that range (15%) means 62,000-odd Cybertrucks have to be built before my number comes up.
I’m gonna buy Tom a drink, throw my hat in the rink alongside his, and wager I’m driving my new Cybertruck in time for next Christmas.
That was my reason for waiting 56 days before pulling the trigger and dropping a C-note into Tesla’s coffers. By that time the reservation order number sequence had already ratcheted up 466,000 spots.
Subtracting out the estimate for non-Cybertruck reservations during that period, the tracker here puts me at 419,000 and change. A few months back the tracker estimated I might expect my truck mid-December of 2024. Now, as of this morning, it has pushed out that estimated delivery to mid-March of 2025.
Maybe.
The two great unknowns, of course, are how fast the ramp proceeds; and the conversion rate of those pre-orders in front of us. Most of us here will be watching both those progressions with bated breath.
Tesla obviously has a much more nuanced view of what the ramp entails than us mere peons on the sideline. But even their looking glass remains mighty opaque this early in the game. That ramp could easily surprise either up or down.
But their cautious hope, expressed by none other than Elon himself, is to hit full production (~250K units) in 2025. Mind you, that doesn’t mean delivering 250K units in 2025.
If we all climb aboard Elon’s fast train (named Optimism & Hope) and Tesla succeeds in hitting that full production target of 250K in, say, December of 2025, there’s one fair certainty buried in that success: Tesla has to make pretty good progress in 2024. Hitting their 2025 bogey doesn’t happen if they don’t enter the year already running at a decent clip.
What’s a pretty good clip? How many Cybertrucks must Tesla deliver in 2024?
I dunno. But I’ll throw a dart and call it 50-70K.
Turning to the pre-order conversion rate, I’ll point out that those of us here are a biased minority. We see that today in what appears to be a fairly high conversion rate among those who received Foundation Series invites. And we’re going to see it tomorrow when the FS ends and regular trims start to move.
Even before the Delivery Event a few weeks ago, many of us never expected the conversion rate to be terribly high. A refundable hundred bucks doesn’t exactly demand a lot of commitment. If you had asked me over Thanksgiving what I thought it might be, I’d have probably guessed something on the order of 30-40%.
For good or for ill, that Delivery event changed everything. After that event I said we would see a conversion rate somewhere between 10-20%.
I’m just a nobody, of course. And my guess has little more credence than a dart throw.
But analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect something on the order of 2.2 million Tesla deliveries in 2024. That figure is reasonable, I think, given Elon’s earlier hope to hit 2 million deliveries in 2023 (a figure they will miss by a couple hundred thousand); and taking into account softening EV (and ICE) sales because of interest rates and other economic headwinds.
And Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, expects the Cybertruck will represent 3% of Tesla’s volume in 2024. I don’t know who Tom Narayan is, but someone is paying him to make guesses on this stuff, so we could imagine his dart throw is better than mine.
Three percent of 2.2 million is 66,000 Cybertrucks. That’s what Tom thinks will happen.
My conversion rate guess of 10-20%... putting a stake in the ground right in the middle of that range (15%) means 62,000-odd Cybertrucks have to be built before my number comes up.
I’m gonna buy Tom a drink, throw my hat in the rink alongside his, and wager I’m driving my new Cybertruck in time for next Christmas.
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my favorite.
