Where will Tesla get 4680 batteries for the CyberTruck in 2024?

[HaulingAss]

I believe they’ll be using 2170 cells which is the reason its changed from a true exoskeleton design to whatever it is now

You can believe whatever you want, but no credible information from the company leads me to think that Tesla will put 2170 cells in production Cybertrucks. I wouldn't mind 2170's if it helped me get my 500-mile range sooner (I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to battery types), but that's not how Tesla will enter into the release of a new model.

It's too expensive to change battery types and support numerous different combinations of vehicles with various battery types. Elon has commented before on how they have to support too many combinations of vehicles/battery types with existing models and implied that they need to be more mindful going forward of creating more situations like that.

Yes, Tesla has struggled mightily with the 4680, because manufacturing is hard, and you don't reiterate and improve without constant struggle. But they wouldn't struggle if struggling wasn't productive. Every day they get closer to their goals.

I would be more worried about the timing of 4680 batteries being available in high volume if Tesla was just now starting battery production. The fact that they have have been planning and setting up pilot lines for a few years now, and have commercially released the first iteration some time ago, indicates a more mature process that continues to mature and Tesla has been familiar with the particular challenges they faced a long time ago. I don't see any reason to believe production of the higher energy density 4680's is not coming together in parallel with the announced ramp timeline of Cybertruck.

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[CyberGus]

I believe they're previously stated that the 4680 cells in Austin vehicles came from Fremont. That's obviously temporary.

The cathode-production facility is still under construction, but they are definitely running the 4680 line at the NW corner of the factory; you can see the heat-exchangers on the roof steaming.

That leaves the open questions of energy density, rate of production, and yield, which they are unlikely to publish. However, they did indicate improvement at the shareholder's meeting.

 

[Baldey]

Tesla is still using the regular 811 nickel-manganese-cobalt mixture for the cathodes and ordinary graphite anodes, at least in batteries torn down from current Model Y's . Having the Texas facilities spun up is probably the first step in mass manufacturing the new high-nickel cathodes and silicon anodes they have been hinting at. By the time CT production is fully ramped, partners like LG, CATL, SAMSUNG, and others will be producing 4680's of their own. Samsung's even talking about 4695's and 46120 cells for higher capacity vehicles.

And with Tesla cashing in on green tax incentives for every battery they produce, i doubt they will stop building production capacity with Texas.. Any overproduction could just be turned into power walls and mega packs, for even more tax rebates.

 

[intimidator]

Tesla is still using the regular 811 nickel-manganese-cobalt mixture for the cathodes and ordinary graphite anodes, at least in batteries torn down from current Model Y's . Having the Texas facilities spun up is probably the first step in mass manufacturing the new high-nickel cathodes and silicon anodes they have been hinting at. By the time CT production is fully ramped, partners like LG, CATL, SAMSUNG, and others will be producing 4680's of their own. Samsung's even talking about 4695's and 46120 cells for higher capacity vehicles.

And with Tesla cashing in on green tax incentives for every battery they produce, i doubt they will stop building production capacity with Texas.. Any overproduction could just be turned into power walls and mega packs, for even more tax rebates.

Although, those outside suppliers maybe struggling to ramp too. See below:

Panasonic was thought to be inline to produce a portion of the early CyberTruck 4680s, but very recently they announced they are delaying 4680 battery production...."Panasonic now plans to start 4680 cell production between April 2024 and September 2024 (per Reuters)

 

[Baldey]

Although, those outside suppliers maybe struggling to ramp too. See below:

Panasonic was thought to be inline to produce a portion of the early CyberTruck 4680s, but very recently they announced they are delaying 4680 battery production...."Panasonic now plans to start 4680 cell production between April 2024 and September 2024 (per Reuters)

Yep, third party suppliers are probably going to be slow. Not a lot of 4680 customers besides rTesla, at the moment. But if the CT ramp is anything like the M3 ramp was, 100k units in the first year would be VERY optimistic:

 

[Trbizwiz]

Suppliers are not going to start producing Teslas in house designed 4680, until Tesla has the battery design finalized. Tesla hasn’t ramped production, because the haven’t finalized the production design.
they must be getting close because they ordered 4680 machines for Giga Berlin a month or so ago, according to reports. I suspect optimization, and production ramp of this cell is somewhat tied to the new cathode building. It’s interesting that new 3 & Y models are rumored, with front and rear castings, which indicates structural pack. It’s interesting that those appear to be coming this summer, along side Cybertruck. It’s interesting that Elon said the next “2” new models are projected to sell around 5,000,000 per year. Which is more than 2 times the projected volume of current 3 & Y.
I think teslas confidence is very high for the 4680, and the timeline to production ready is very near.
3rd quarter could be the start of very interesting times. Perhaps 2020 level interesting, for Tesla, that other 2020 stuff not withstanding.
as for Cybertruck, I think Model 3’s initial ramp is the fairest guesstimate for a model ramp. Fewer than 2000 this year. Fewer than 200,000 next year. Utter craziness in 2025

 

[Solarrrs]

I believe they’ll be using 2170 cells which is the reason its changed from a true exoskeleton design to whatever it is now

No wizard do some research

 

[Crissa]

Where Tesla gets its 4680 batteries does matter.
Tesla has not finished ramping up 4680 development or production at the GigaTexas factory, so they may have to turn to outside suppliers.
Which could affect how many CyberTrucks they can build....at least in 2024.
By 2025 we would hope Tesla can make the 4680s, to the specs they are striving for, themselves.

No one is as far along making the 4680s as Tesla is, tho. And no, it doesn't matter, because Tesla will make sure any cells they put into their vehicles are covered with the same warranties.

Tesla is still using the regular 811 nickel-manganese-cobalt mixture for the cathodes and ordinary graphite anodes, at least in batteries torn down from current Model Y's .

The latest teardown was a year ago now, though. Hard to be so definitive. ?‍

And with Tesla cashing in on green tax incentives for every battery they produce, i doubt they will stop building production capacity with Texas.. Any overproduction could just be turned into power walls and mega packs, for even more tax rebates.

Exactly. Tesla is making sure their partners can make the same cells. Where they made them will affect those rebates and prices.

-Crissa

 

[intimidator]

Yep, third party suppliers are probably going to be slow. Not a lot of 4680 customers besides rTesla, at the moment. But if the CT ramp is anything like the M3 ramp was, 100k units in the first year would be VERY optimistic:

Thank you for the chart.
I couldn't remember the specific #s for the ramp of the Model 3, but I knew it was "slowish".

So, you are probably right....the CyberTruck ramp could follow a similar curve. Which would not be something to beat Tesal up about. Manufacturing is hard. The CT is a totally new way of building a vehicle.

 

[BayouCityBob]

Where do you think Tesla will get enough 4680s for the first year of production of the CyberTruck?

Elon did say that he projects selling 250,000 CyberTrucks per year (maybe more), but of course that does not mean Tesla will hit that # in 2024. Could Tesla throttle CyberTruck in 2024 to say 100,000 units because of the supply constraint on batteries?

Thinking about this some more, Tesla could also source from CATL. Its 4680 cell and pack hit full production in March. The Zeekr brand will use a few but you could certainly see Tesla picking up some as well. They have a strong supply relationship with CATL.

https://electrek.co/2023/03/21/catl...ies-with-13-more-power-than-other-4680-cells/

 

[intimidator]

Suppliers are not going to start producing Teslas in house designed 4680, until Tesla has the battery design finalized. Tesla hasn’t ramped production, because the haven’t finalized the production design.
they must be getting close because they ordered 4680 machines for Giga Berlin a month or so ago, according to reports. I suspect optimization, and production ramp of this cell is somewhat tied to the new cathode building. It’s interesting that new 3 & Y models are rumored, with front and rear castings, which indicates structural pack. It’s interesting that those appear to be coming this summer, along side Cybertruck. It’s interesting that Elon said the next “2” new models are projected to sell around 5,000,000 per year. Which is more than 2 times the projected volume of current 3 & Y.
I think teslas confidence is very high for the 4680, and the timeline to production ready is very near.
3rd quarter could be the start of very interesting times. Perhaps 2020 level interesting, for Tesla, that other 2020 stuff not withstanding.
as for Cybertruck, I think Model 3’s initial ramp is the fairest guesstimate for a model ramp. Fewer than 2000 this year. Fewer than 200,000 next year. Utter craziness in 2025

Thinking about this some more, Tesla could also source from CATL. Its 4680 cell and pack hit full production in March. The Zeekr brand will use a few but you could certainly see Tesla picking up some as well. They have a strong supply relationship with CATL.

https://electrek.co/2023/03/21/catl...ies-with-13-more-power-than-other-4680-cells/

I guess the issue is buying batteries that are manufactured in China and losing out on the credit.

ALTHOUGH, if the price of the CyberTruck is over $80,000 grand, it won't qualify for a credit so where they source the batteries won't matter.

 

[Trbizwiz]

I guess the issue is buying batteries that are manufactured in China and losing out on the credit.

ALTHOUGH, if the price of the CyberTruck is over $80,000 grand, it won't qualify for a credit so where they source the batteries won't matter.

With very low initial production capacity, I can’t imagine a pathway to a sub $80,000 Cybertruck for the initial roll out. Tesla has told us time and again, pricing reflects a correlation between supply and demand. Demand is very high for Cybertruck, and supply is estimated very low, for this year. I think the only way the initial Cybertrucks are not plaid level, is that they don’t have a battery capable of delivering plaid level performance.
delivering plaid Cybertrucks early gives them a few advantages. They never promised a plaid, thus they never mentioned pricing for plaid. Plaid is 25% to 30% more expensive, which will increase the ASP’s which will look better on the earnings report. Elon may not care about that last part, but it will matter to investors.
if plaid is roughly 25% more then we are looking at at least $87,375 as a starting place for a plaid Cybertruck. I think Tesla is shooting for getting pricing as close to the original promise, based on how pricing for their other vehicles has returned to very similar to the original pricing. However they have that supply demand issue to contend with as well.
I think regardless of model, Cybertrucks will cost more at the lower production levels, than when production is ramped to 250,000 per year plus. So anyone that gets a truck in the next 12 months, better not start crying when the same truck is cheaper at full ramp. It absolutely will be. That’s how these things work. If this is you, reading this, consider yourself warned. New models of new tech cost more early, and get cheaper, and better. I’m sure there’s a name for some scientific law about this. But for simplicity, we will refer to it as Murphy’s law of Tesla.

 

[TyPope]

Here's a couple facts from watching Joe fly his drones over GigaTexas since the beginning:

1. We have seen Model Y bodies in two different versions
2. It's logical to presume those are the 2170 and 4680 versions of the Model Y. The 4680 version does not have a floor in the bodies we've seen set outside for scrap.
3. While not definite proof of 4680 production, it's almost certain that Tesla is producing some 4680 Model Ys at GigaTexas.
4. We can surmise that while they are probably not making the cathode in GigaTexas yet as the cathode building has not exhibited any signs of cathode production (steam, material deliveries, etc), they must be importing at least enough to run some kind of 4680 production or at least they are importing 4680 cells for Model Y production.
5. We don't know the mix of Model Y production versions 2170 vs. 4680 but we DO know that not all Model Ys have 4680 because they are still making the 2170 version of the body. We also know that not all Model Y2 have 2170s because they are making the 4680-style body though they could be just testing the line for when they do have 4680 cells... Nah.
6. We know a percentage of Model Y production is the 4680 variety.
7. We know they can now produce 5,000 Model Ys per month.
8. We know that if push comes to shove, they could shift Model Y production to 100% 2170 cells until 4680 production can keep up with vehicle production which would free up 4680 production.
9. Thus, there is already SOME capacity to build Cybertrucks at GigaTexas using the obviously limited number of 4680 cells they are producing somewhere. We just don't know how much... But, we can guess it is not enough to make 5,000 Model Ys per week and thus, not enough to make probably 2,500 Cybertrucks per week assuming a sort of double-stacked Model Y battery module to get the battery up to 156.2 KwH given current Model Y battery pack size of 178.1.

 

[intimidator]

With very low initial production capacity, I can’t imagine a pathway to a sub $80,000 Cybertruck for the initial roll out. Tesla has told us time and again, pricing reflects a correlation between supply and demand. Demand is very high for Cybertruck, and supply is estimated very low, for this year. I think the only way the initial Cybertrucks are not plaid level, is that they don’t have a battery capable of delivering plaid level performance.
delivering plaid Cybertrucks early gives them a few advantages. They never promised a plaid, thus they never mentioned pricing for plaid. Plaid is 25% to 30% more expensive, which will increase the ASP’s which will look better on the earnings report. Elon may not care about that last part, but it will matter to investors.
if plaid is roughly 25% more then we are looking at at least $87,375 as a starting place for a plaid Cybertruck. I think Tesla is shooting for getting pricing as close to the original promise, based on how pricing for their other vehicles has returned to very similar to the original pricing. However they have that supply demand issue to contend with as well.
I think regardless of model, Cybertrucks will cost more at the lower production levels, than when production is ramped to 250,000 per year plus. So anyone that gets a truck in the next 12 months, better not start crying when the same truck is cheaper at full ramp. It absolutely will be. That’s how these things work. If this is you, reading this, consider yourself warned. New models of new tech cost more early, and get cheaper, and better. I’m sure there’s a name for some scientific law about this. But for simplicity, we will refer to it as Murphy’s law of Tesla.

I can see your analysis coming true.

IMO, and my opinion only, the price of the 2024 CyberTruck will be high. As you point out, supply and demand will rule. Tesla could maybe call it the Launch Edition. Or the X Edition. Or ? And charge whatever the market will bear. Maybe Elon signs each one?

 

[Trbizwiz]

I can see your analysis coming true.

IMO, and my opinion only, the price of the 2024 CyberTruck will be high. As you point out, supply and demand will rule. Tesla could maybe call it the Launch Edition. Or the X Edition. Or ? And charge whatever the market will bear. Maybe Elon signs each one?

It seems like with the early Plaid models, it was founders edition.

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