Will the Jan-March 2024 delivery window be honored?

[Cyber07]

what’s the most recent order screenshots of the, therefore, most recent stated delivery estimate being given?

I’ve seen only a few folks say they’ve received recent invites and ordered, but don’t recall any of late either saying or showing the est delivery language more recently.




very back of napkin for obvious reasons, but to scope directionslity

1. How many people do you believe have confirmed their reservation as an order until today (they still promising the Jan-March timeline)?

Order tracking thread here is to 700 total orders, 2/3 of which are AWD, or 462

I have reason to believe that’s actually a higher sample % of global orders than one might believe

but let’s for present purposes just assume (1) Tesla is as of eg this week still saying Jan-March for AWD, and (2) 460 people have ordered (bare with me)

As if Dec 31, Tesla had completed build of ~350 trucks, ~325 of which were AWD

~30 of those went to delivery event folks, 20 were showroom units, and let’s say another 50 have before Dec 31 gone to other employees/VIPs - for a total of 100 delivered to date, and 225 at GFTX etc to-be-delivered still

this 224 AWD in stock would mean that of the 462 AWD on this site‘s order list, ~1/2 of their trucks are already built

leaving another 225 needing to be built. If this week Tesla we’re building 50/day, those will be done by end of this work week (not counting weekends).

if our sites order list reflected only 1/4 of all orders, it would mean that if Tesla kept making only 50/day during only workdays through all of January those would all be built.

if this sites order list were only 1/8th, all built by end of February - still assuming Tesla’s ramp flatlines at 50/workday


2. How many cars will they produce until March 20? (So they can deliver it customers by end of March)

Let’s assume this week they’re at 50/workdayday, next week at 75/workday, and each week tick up by increments of 25

Wk 1: 50/ = 250
Wk 2: 75/ = 375
Wk 3: 100/ = 500
Wk 4: 125/ = 620
Wk 5: 150/ = 750
Wk 6: 175/ = 875
Wk 7: 200/ = 1000
Wk 8: 225/ = 1,125
Wk 9: 250/ = 1,250
Wk 10: 275/ = 1,375
Wk 11: 300/ = 1,500
Wk of March 20: 325/ = 1,625

Total built&delivered by end of March (incld the 225 from in 2023) : 11,500

Now,on one hand our begging ramp assumption of 50/day might be high, but in the other hand we assumed only a linear ramp (should be a slight exponential), only 5 days/week building (should be 7), etc.


If there have been 11,400 AWD orders to date, it would mean this site’s AWD order thread is only 4% of all AWD orders - which seems an absurdly low figure.


3. What is the delta between the first two numbers? (E.g. how unrealistic of their estimate?)


Unrealistic to me, or to Tesla?

I would be pleasantly shocked if they built 11K in Q1. I’d think half of that would be a success.

Which would still mean that this site’s order sheet is only 8% of all existing orders - which would also be surprisingly low number to me.



all of this just back of napkin for directionality. None suggesting these are actual figures.

instead just showing that some seemingly reasonable numbers plugged in result in some equally reasonable outcomes.

enough to say, at the end of the day, it’s not yet clear to me that they can’t reasonably (if optimistically) expect to build by March 20 the AWD order’s they’ve received to date.

I don’t think there are near as many total orders as folks might assume. And I think they’ve to present built more, and they’re presently building more, than we’re yet seeing be delivered.

Seems they’re holding fire, and maybe until they see the whites of the eyes.

put differently, finger in wind, I think they might build ~5,000 AWD in Q1 and it would be a win, and I think a LOT fewer than 5,000 AWD orders have been placed to date.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.
I like the consistency in your logic.

My issue is that I see no VIN allocation for non Tesla employee customers, especially on this site.

This either means that
1. Teslai delivering to customers we don't know about because the order pool is so big (Low coverage theory)
2. Tesla intentionally doesn't deliver for people who registered here (conspiracy theory)
3. Tesla internal systems are not working well regarding the Cybertruck (Incompetency theory).
4. They will just release everything at once instead of schedules delivery manner (the end of Q "push" theory)

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[WormtownKris]

Thanks for the thoughtful response.
I like the consistency in your logic.

My issue is that I see no VIN allocation for non Tesla employee customers, especially on this site.

Tesla historically only assigns VINs in the week or so leading up to delivery. Some here have gotten a VIN on a Thursday with an appointment to pick up the car that weekend.
Just last night, Jeff Roberts posted a quick video showing at least 9 CyberTrucks in the rail yard north of GigaTexas, (Taylor Logistics Yard), indicating that they are also starting to ship CTs out by rail. This is a fairly strong though non-definite indicator that Tesla is starting to ship CTs out to be sold to the public.
So, I would say the lack of assigned VINs reported does nothing to counter CVal's commentary above.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

It's winter. Delivery will be a problem for sure. Delayed at least a few months with orders like this piling up. June seems about right for my Dec 22nd confirmed order.

 

[lowtek]

Love how folks seem to think ramping up a vehicle and production line is easy ... and people wonder why Tesla keeps quiet.

They prove, quarter after quarter, that they can execute very well.

Have you seen these factories? It amazes me they can get vehicles out at all. Amazing people.

 

[MInnesooooooota]

Yes, your Cyber Truck will be delivered by Jan to March 2025.

 

[cvalue13]

My issue is that I see no VIN allocation for non Tesla employee customers, especially on this site.

one clarification then an explanation

Clarification is they’ve gone to employees (or employee family members), but also to basically let’s call them ‘famous’ people.

as for the explanation: discussed elsewhere is how it appears Tesla is doing some gymnastics with respect to regularly and financial reporting triggers.

and deliveries for essentially marketing purposes (eg to the famous people) and to employees have certain carve-outs under regulatory/financial reporting rules

which is why, for example, the one Monroney sticker we’ve seen to date has no crash test data, no EPA data, etc

These things aren’t required if the vehicle isn’t in technical production (for reg/financial purposes), and are instead carved-our units characterized as being used for marketing (by famous) or testing (by employees) purposes.


Which would mean that we’re not seeing VINs, deliveries, etc., to regular Joe because Tesla’s plans are not yet ready to be labeled as having gone into technical production, triggering various regulatory and financial reporting requirements.

Meanwhile that would mean Tesla is building these units, but holding fire on behaviors that would trigger technical production.

So the question becomes, when will Tesla be ready to be treated as having entered technical production, and so begin turning to regular Joe’s for advancing sales/deliveries.


More on that question later, but for now suffices to say that we can infer some things by them having not started that in earnest now a whole week into the new financial calendar quarter.

 

[Cyber07]

one clarification then an explanation

Clarification is they’ve gone to employees (or employee family members), but also to basically let’s call them ‘famous’ people.

as for the explanation: discussed elsewhere is how it appears Tesla is doing some gymnastics with respect to regularly and financial reporting triggers.

and deliveries for essentially marketing purposes (eg to the famous people) and to employees have certain carve-outs under regulatory/financial reporting rules

which is why, for example, the one Monroney sticker we’ve seen to date has no crash test data, no EPA data, etc

These things aren’t required if the vehicle isn’t in technical production (for reg/financial purposes), and are instead carved-our units characterized as being used for marketing (by famous) or testing (by employees) purposes.


Which would mean that we’re not seeing VINs, deliveries, etc., to regular Joe because Tesla’s plans are not yet ready to be labeled as having gone into technical production, triggering various regulatory and financial reporting requirements.

Meanwhile that would mean Tesla is building these units, but holding fire on behaviors that would trigger technical production.

So the question becomes, when will Tesla be ready to be treated as having entered technical production, and so begin turning to regular Joe’s for advancing sales/deliveries.


More on that question later, but for now suffices to say that we can infer some things by them having not started that in earnest now a whole week into the new financial calendar quarter.

Thank you. I forgot about the financial/regulatory reporting related to productions and I have assumed (incorrectly) that they have entered there. You are right and this actually explains why nobody get a VIN, even if they might start to reposition the produced inventory for actual delivery purpose.

Good catch. We will see from the first real customer VIN allocation that they have "declared" the production start and that is the moment we can properly asses how much the gates have been opened.

 

[cvalue13]

I am just curious how many people are actually believing that they will get the truck in the timeframe as promised.

I think the highlighted framing above is a miss-step that works to bury the more substantive point of your post/thread

maybe step away from the “as promised” and “honored” verbiage that suggests Tesla did anything more/less than give a Tesla-typical timing estimate, clearly labeled an estimate.

the relevant remaining question then becomes only will Tesla hit its estimate. That’s a good and interesting question, absent the baggage of miss-ascribing promises where none ever existed.

 

[DRKTruck]

I’m not sure that I’m understanding the core of your question

Tesla did make deliveries in December - just not to people in this forum

they’ll definitely make deliveries in each of Jan-March


if instead what you're asking is: will there be *ar t least one* person who ordered on Dec 8 who *doesn’t* get their delivery by the final day of March?

that’s entirely possible

afterall, Tesla is ramping and so only using their then-best projection about how many trucks they can build AND delivery by the last day of March

such estimate being why the invite emails stated “estimated delivery Dec 2024 through March 2024”


but, point taken that Tesla is known for having optimistic timing estimates ?

collectively, why I think “will delivery window be honored” suggests some may have been unwise to gloss over what it really was: a Tesla estimate

Thats $3k less than the email/options I got. They must have increased prices

 

[Fleetwood75]

Yes, your Cyber Truck will be delivered by Jan to March 2025.

Anybody on the forums here who ordered a FS and thinks that they'll actually get it in Q1 2024 is fooling themselves I think

 

[cvalue13]

Thats $3k less than the email/options I got. They must have increased prices

nah it’s just showing Tesla’s “adjusted” price that deducts potential gas savings

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